Originally Posted by cjatud2012
Sure thing: http://www.cardschat.com/f57/ak-2-stt-183525/
My post is #5. Our hero raises a preflop limper from late position, who calls. Hero then c-bets a QT5 flop with two diamonds, and villain calls. The turn hits a 3c, and we check after being checked to. The river brings the ace of spaces, and in the hand, villain leads the river for the size of the pot. I then asked the question what would we do if he had again checked?
Well, this isn't the type of question that can simply be answered with a bet, check or w/e. (I want to add a caveat here since I've not spent time with ICM to determine if/how mathematical analysis of situations change in tournaments/sngs.) I have a free video at DTB called The 2 Keys to Good Poker. You can find it here:
I also talk about this a fair amount in my book Poker Math That Matters. The first key is accurate assumptions. We have to make assumptions about our opponent's strategy which includes what his range is and what decisions he'll make with that range. When you're on the river in this hand, you have to think about what % of his range will call different sized bets compared to which will fold. If you can get an opponent to call with worse hands > than 50% of the time he calls with better, then you have a value bet to make. (This again is assuming your opponent never c/r bluffs you). If you assume this to be false, than you check since there's no value in a bet. Your assumptions will change with different types of villains. Loose and sticky villains will have many weaker hands than you and are likely to call with more of them. This allows us to value bet much thinner than against better players. The extreme nut peddlers who will only call with top two or better on a board like this, you obviously need a much stronger hand to value bet and your tptk is not one of them. There are many different assumptions we can make. Your ability to make accurate assumptions about the villain's strategy will take time and experience.
This is why we can't just look at a hand and say "Bet!". We need to have some assumptions to work with before we begin to mathematically decide what bet/bet size produces the highest amount of EV.