This is a discussion on Probabilty calculation of having 3 of a kind by river holding poker pairs? within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hi Everyone, I need some help about calculating the probability of basic things in poker. I have Poker Propheiser which is a free program to calculate 


#1




Probabilty calculation of having 3 of a kind by river holding poker pairs?
Hi Everyone,
I need some help about calculating the probability of basic things in poker. I have Poker Propheiser which is a free program to calculate certain probabilities with given hands and I also have and old version of Texas Calculatem which also works the same way. In this program I gave pocket pairs (like QQ) and no flop. They calculate the probability of having a three of a kind by river as 11.75%. But when I want to calculate it by hand I find much higher value like %20. My calculation is [2*C(4,49)]/C(5,50). Without multipling by two, 10% is also not the correct answer. Why do I do mistake? Why my approach is wrong? Can someone explain me how to calculate it the correct way? Thanks in advance 
#2




Quote:
Do the math and see: Flop Set = 1  (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) = 11.76% Set by river = 1  (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48)*(45/47)*(44*46) = 19.22% 
#3




re: Poker & Probabilty calculation of having 3 of a kind by river holding poker pairs?
I don't know the math but I just read this in Harrinton volume one. Suppose you have a pocket pair that misses the flop. With two more cards to come, your odds of hitting the set are 8.4%.

#4




Quote:
1  (45/47)*(44*46) = 8.4% 