Probabilty calculation of having 3 of a kind by river holding poker pairs?
I need some help about calculating the probability of basic things in poker.
I have Poker Propheiser which is a free program to calculate certain probabilities with given hands and I also have and old version of Texas
Calculatem which also works the same way.
In this program I gave pocket pairs (like QQ) and no flop. They calculate the probability of having a three of a kind by river as 11.75%. But when I want to calculate it by hand I find much higher value like %20.
My calculation is [2*C(4,49)]/C(5,50). Without multipling by two, 10% is also not the correct answer. Why do I do mistake? Why my approach is wrong? Can someone explain me how to calculate it the correct way?
Thanks in advance