U
ukn742
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Hello,
Can someone help me break down the math behind this hand?
I have: 9h Th
Flop: 7h 8h 5c
Opponent: 8d 8s
According to http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem I have 42% of winning in an all-in.
How is it worked out?
So far, I've got to: I have 15 outs, 15 * 4 - (15 - 8) = 53% or in probability terms 0.53 chance.
Opponent has 35% to get his full house with 2 cards still to come, i.e. 0.35 chance.
I know that the probability of me winning is conditional, so I have to hit my outs, but also not manage to hit opponent's full house. Two cards to come (is this where the catch is? that I don't have 2 draws for my hand and 2 draws for opponent's hand, but 2 cards only for both hands, i.e. we share the draw?)
Why can't I just multiply the chances of me winning, 0.53 by the chances of opponent losing, 1-0.35 = 0.65? I only get to 0.3445, i.e. 34% not 42%.
Can anyone help my poor math?
thx
Can someone help me break down the math behind this hand?
I have: 9h Th
Flop: 7h 8h 5c
Opponent: 8d 8s
According to http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem I have 42% of winning in an all-in.
How is it worked out?
So far, I've got to: I have 15 outs, 15 * 4 - (15 - 8) = 53% or in probability terms 0.53 chance.
Opponent has 35% to get his full house with 2 cards still to come, i.e. 0.35 chance.
I know that the probability of me winning is conditional, so I have to hit my outs, but also not manage to hit opponent's full house. Two cards to come (is this where the catch is? that I don't have 2 draws for my hand and 2 draws for opponent's hand, but 2 cards only for both hands, i.e. we share the draw?)
Why can't I just multiply the chances of me winning, 0.53 by the chances of opponent losing, 1-0.35 = 0.65? I only get to 0.3445, i.e. 34% not 42%.
Can anyone help my poor math?
thx