probabilities

AlfieAA

AlfieAA

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hey guys, ive been reading david skalanskys book theory holdem, and bloody hell the guy must be a mathematical genius.....he makes poker look like rocket science.....needless to say after reading about 20 pages i was left disheartened.....so heres the question......

do you really need to work out probabilites before the flop?......what is expected value?.....how can i work out my chances of a specific hand i.e pocket kings holding up against a random hand preflop in simple terms....can i survive on only knowing basic odds, implied odds and outs using the rule of 4 and 2?.....cheers
 
Panamajoe

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hey guys, ive been reading david skalanskys book theory holdem, and bloody hell the guy must be a mathematical genius.....he makes poker look like rocket science.....needless to say after reading about 20 pages i was left disheartened.....so heres the question......

do you really need to work out probabilites before the flop?......what is expected value?.....how can i work out my chances of a specific hand i.e pocket kings holding up against a random hand preflop in simple terms....can i survive on only knowing basic odds, implied odds and outs using the rule of 4 and 2?.....cheers

I can say that all I can do at this point is the most basic stuff, outs, basic odds (odds to me are "what's the chance the other guy has a bigger hand" ha ha. I am not particularly succesfull but I have my moments. I primarily play a style I don't know the name of, in tourneys I play tight-loose-tight depending on the phase of the game and stacks at my table. I don't think of much else.

The most succesful players understand how to do "Sklansky" type calculations and from what I understand it becomes almost intuitive once you use it for a while. So, to answer your question "do you really need to work out probabilites before the flop?......" IT DEPENDS. How serious do you want to get, how hard is it really for you to develope the new skill, and do you still enjoy playing?

Doyle Brunson's books are more hands on tips and I reallyt enjoy his teaching style.

Good luck.
 
AlfieAA

AlfieAA

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I can say that all I can do at this point is the most basic stuff, outs, basic odds (odds to me are "what's the chance the other guy has a bigger hand" ha ha. I am not particularly succesfull but I have my moments. I primarily play a style I don't know the name of, in tourneys I play tight-loose-tight depending on the phase of the game and stacks at my table. I don't think of much else.

The most succesful players understand how to do "Sklansky" type calculations and from what I understand it becomes almost intuitive once you use it for a while. So, to answer your question "do you really need to work out probabilites before the flop?......" IT DEPENDS. How serious do you want to get, how hard is it really for you to develope the new skill, and do you still enjoy playing?

Doyle Brunson's books are more hands on tips and I reallyt enjoy his teaching style.

Good luck.
hahaha thats the same with me, whats the odds the other guy has a bigger hand haha....and again, i have no idea what style i play either, im just picking it up bit by bit as i go....for instance ive learned not to open limp and reraise x3 the big blind instead of calling when i have small pairs or acex suited....

counting outs at this time is hard because i need about 5 minutes to work it out haha, but ive downloaded an App called 'ace poker drills' which helps with odds and outs...i practice on that ten minutes everyday....been doing it for about 4 days and im getting slightly quicker lol......

yeah i hope it becomes intuitive because i am awful at maths....just haven't got the brain capacity for it.....i struggle with the 7 times table ffs...haha....im serious......

one day i hope to be a good player, but im starting to think that the pro's and really successful guys are einsteins and that i will only get so far on a limited understanding.......thats fair enough i can accept that because its a fun game, and although i would like to earn some money, i would still play poker if it was only play money......i played zynga for 2 years haha so i love the game
 
AlfieAA

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Doyle Brunson's books are more hands on tips and I reallyt enjoy his teaching style.

Good luck.

that will be the next book on my wishlist thanks...im currently reading phil gordons little green book. have you read that?.....good luck to you too mate
 
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This book you have, it has a reference in book to it titled Hold' Em Poker For Advanced Players, lol. Written by Sklansky and Malmuth. Heard some others talk about this book, but the one you are referring to sound much more interesting. I love mathematics and do need to put this concept into poker.
Can you tell me if this book is new or how old it is? Just asking because the style of play has changed as the game has become more popular.
This book talks about starting hands quite a bit but not really into some of the deeper issues which you talk of here. Really would like to get a copy of your book. Also have Zen and the Art of Poker and another that goes with it.
 
JDAWG5

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I know how to do all the basic probabilities, but when people start to talk about EV formulas, and stuff like that I'm lost.

I remember the 1st time I read Bluenowhere's post where he wrote out the EV formula, I was starring at the screen like this:

AvYpUcLCMAAePfm.jpg:large
 
AlfieAA

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This book you have, it has a reference in book to it titled Hold' Em Poker For Advanced Players, lol. Written by Sklansky and Malmuth. Heard some others talk about this book, but the one you are referring to sound much more interesting. I love mathematics and do need to put this concept into poker.
Can you tell me if this book is new or how old it is? Just asking because the style of play has changed as the game has become more popular.
This book talks about starting hands quite a bit but not really into some of the deeper issues which you talk of here. Really would like to get a copy of your book. Also have Zen and the Art of Poker and another that goes with it.

no its not the advance one haha...its called the 'theory of poker'...it was first published in the 1970's....infact i think it was the first poker book ever written....i downloaded the seventh edition one.......you can get it on amazon, or you can download it on 4share for nothing lol like what i did
 
JCgrind

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do you really need to work out probabilites before the flop?......what is expected value?.....how can i work out my chances of a specific hand i.e pocket kings holding up against a random hand preflop in simple terms....can i survive on only knowing basic odds, implied odds and outs using the rule of 4 and 2?.....cheers

if you plan on being remotely serious about poker then yes.

as long as you do pokerstove calculations now and again when youre reviewing your week or whatever, youll start to just know these things as they sink in. a really simple example would be you have JJ and a guy 3bs you with a 3b stat of 2%, obv you can just fold (assuming you dont have the odds to set mine)

expected value is the long term amount of profit you can expect to make with any decision, example youre playing 100NL and get AA in pre vs KK for 100BBs ea, or a $200 pot. youre an ~80% favourite, so your EV would be 80% of the pot ie $160, as you win $100 8/10 times and lose $100 2/10 times
 
AlfieAA

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haha jdawgs, im lost on basic probabilities....just cannot grasp the math.......the chance of getting two aces is 220/1.....so to get that you divide?...times?...52/4 51/3....god knows .....is it algebra?........this is what happens when you dont stick in at school kids
 
AlfieAA

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thanks jchoop, im going to pore a whisky and try and understand your theory example....yeah im serious about poker....its just unfortunate im shite at maths....but like you say, it will sink in...i will have to rely on memorisation ....thanks again for the example mate
 
JDAWG5

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thanks jchoop, im going to pore a whisky and try and understand your theory example....yeah im serious about poker....its just unfortunate im shite at maths....but like you say, it will sink in...i will have to rely on memorisation ....thanks again for the example mate

You sure you haven't poured it already lmao!!!
 
AlfieAA

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hahaha i did but it went warm with the steam coming out my ears trying to learn all this
 
AlfieAA

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what does set mine mean?
 
JCgrind

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haha jdawgs, im lost on basic probabilities....just cannot grasp the math.......the chance of getting two aces is 220/1.....so to get that you divide?...times?...52/4 51/3....god knows .....is it algebra?........this is what happens when you dont stick in at school kids

lmfao. even more lol because i deferred from uni this year

what does set mine mean?

just to elaborate on JDs response, you should only be setmining when you can win 20 times the amount that you have to call preflop. so say you have 55, in a 100NL game;

you have 200BBs. villain has 75BBs you raise x3BBs ($3), and villain reraises to $10. you should fold, as you can only win a maximum of $75, and its costing you $7 more to call. you hit a set (off the top of my head) ~1 in 8.5 times, and you wont stack villain everytime you do hit one, as he wont always have a legitimate hand, might miss with his AK, might have KK and is scared by an A high board, etc.

the exception to this rule would be when you are 100% sure your opponent has AA or KK (which you can be after a few thousand hands when they only 3bet 1.5% or something), in which case you can call without the chance to win 20 times the raise as youll be stacking them more often when you do peel a set
 
JDAWG5

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lmfao. even more lol because i deferred from uni this year



just to elaborate on JDs response, you should only be setmining when you can win 20 times the amount that you have to call preflop. so say you have 55, in a 100NL game;

you have 200BBs. villain has 75BBs you raise x3BBs ($3), and villain reraises to $10. you should fold, as you can only win a maximum of $75, and its costing you $7 more to call. you hit a set (off the top of my head) ~1 in 8.5 times, and you wont stack villain everytime you do hit one, as he wont always have a legitimate hand, might miss with his AK, might have KK and is scared by an A high board, etc.

the exception to this rule would be when you are 100% sure your opponent has AA or KK (which you can be after a few thousand hands when they only 3bet 1.5% or something), in which case you can call without the chance to win 20 times the raise as youll be stacking them more often when you do peel a set

This is much better lol^^^^
 
AlfieAA

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cheers guys.....so the villian would need $200 for me to call his raise?......i seen an article on pokerstratagy.com about 'call20'....im assuming thats what it meant....only call if the other guy has 20bb's....or in this case because he raised to $10 he would need the $200....i get it......i think........so i would only be profitable in the long run to call his AA or KK because i was the underdog anyway?
 
AlfieAA

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i think jchoop will be writing a poker book in the future lads.....the guy knows the shit lol
 
JDAWG5

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cheers guys.....so the villian would need $200 for me to call his raise?......i seen an article on pokerstratagy.com about 'call20'....im assuming thats what it meant....only call if the other guy has 20bb's....or in this case because he raised to $10 he would need the $200....i get it......i think........so i would only be profitable in the long run to call his AA or KK because i was the underdog anyway?


I'm pretty sure this is not right.

But I will let somebody else explain why lol
 
AlfieAA

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haha, jchoop will be along soon to fry my head with superb theoretical analysis
 
JCgrind

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i think jchoop will be writing a poker book in the future lads.....the guy knows the shit lol

lol

cheers guys.....so the villian would need $200 for me to call his raise?......i seen an article on pokerstratagy.com about 'call20'....im assuming thats what it meant....only call if the other guy has 20bb's....or in this case because he raised to $10 he would need the $200....i get it......i think........so i would only be profitable in the long run to call his AA or KK because i was the underdog anyway?

I'm pretty sure this is not right.

But I will let somebody else explain why lol

im not sure if what im about to say is optimal, but its what i go by. since we have already raised to $3, when villain makes it $10, we have to call $7. so id be wanting 10-20 x $7 to make the call, where x10 would be the bottom end when im sure villain has AA, KK, and will stack off when i flop a set 99% of the time, and x20 when villain has a balanced range so wont always have a hand when i hit a set, wont always pay me off when he does, and when im out of position because its harder to get money in pots OOP since you have to checkraise to get stacks in (and will get folds from a ton of decent hands), or donk out and just pray that villain raises, in which case we cant really 3b the flop because villain will then only pay us off when hes massively coolered, so we kinda just have to check the turn and hope he barrels off some more. i think i probably prefer donk/call flop, c/c turn, donk river but its all very villain dependent.

back to the point though, i want the standard villain to have like $140-150 to make the $7 call preflop assuming im playing fit or fold dependent on whether i hit a set. personally, i make this call when villain has much less because i check/raise bluff on dry boards etc when i miss my set due to how strong it looks and the amount of folds i get, but ye probably stick to my initial advice for now lol
 
AlfieAA

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right im going to ask you a silly few questions here so bear with me........why does it matter how much money the villian has?.....say he has $75 and raises to $7 and we call, hoping to hit the set, then he would prob raise to $16?.. (we hit the set) .obv we would just call it and trap him.....is that right...trap?.....so on the river he would bet say $35 and we would reraise to $50 because thats all he would have right enough, but its still a nice pot.......now everything you say jchoop im taking as gospel because compared to me you are a pro, but i would just like to know why he would need to have 20bb at the start of the hand.....is it a rule of thumb that you follow these rules or do you look at each situation seperately depending on your starting hand probability......im sorry im coming across dense lol
 
JCgrind

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right im going to ask you a silly few questions here so bear with me........why does it matter how much money the villian has?.....say he has $75 and raises to $7 and we call, hoping to hit the set, then he would prob raise to $16?.. (we hit the set) .obv we would just call it and trap him.....is that right...trap?.....so on the river he would bet say $35 and we would reraise to $50 because thats all he would have right enough, but its still a nice pot.......now everything you say jchoop im taking as gospel because compared to me you are a pro, but i would just like to know why he would need to have 20bb at the start of the hand.....is it a rule of thumb that you follow these rules or do you look at each situation seperately depending on your starting hand probability......im sorry im coming across dense lol

ill try and answer but you should prob reword all this, its pretty unclear what youre asking.

villain will (should) be raising the same amounts regardless of their holecards, otherwise we will know what he has. sure, he can raise more when he has AA or whatever, but then nobodys going to call and hes not gunna make any money.

trapping is bad news at micros and id strongly advise against it. youre playing against a ton of baddies, who love calling bets, so bet. theyre going to call. not to mention say you have a nice little spot where villain has TT, you have 44 and flop is 248. you should look to get it in on that flop, as you probably arent going to stack villain when the inevitable J/Q/K/A peels on the turn or river and he starts getting wary about his hand. whereas he sees that flop and thinks overpair=nuts.

villain doesnt need 20BB at the start of the hand, he needs probably 150BB+ assuming you raise and get 3bet. Effective stack = the total amount you can possibly win. so if you have a million and villain has $2, you can still only win $2. same if you have $2 and he has a million, you cant win any more than $2. in this scenario, the effective stack size (ESS) would be $2.

when you call to set mine, you want the ESS to be roughly 20 times the amount you have to call to see the flop. going back to the example, if we open to $3 in a 100NL, and villain 3bets to $10, its $7 more for us to call, so the ESS needed would be $7 x 20, =$140 stack. both you and villain therefore need AT LEAST $140 each, as you will only be able to win the amount of the smallest stack
 
AlfieAA

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ill try and answer but you should prob reword all this, its pretty unclear what youre asking.

villain will (should) be raising the same amounts regardless of their holecards, otherwise we will know what he has. sure, he can raise more when he has AA or whatever, but then nobodys going to call and hes not gunna make any money.

trapping is bad news at micros and id strongly advise against it. youre playing against a ton of baddies, who love calling bets, so bet. theyre going to call. not to mention say you have a nice little spot where villain has TT, you have 44 and flop is 248. you should look to get it in on that flop, as you probably arent going to stack villain when the inevitable J/Q/K/A peels on the turn or river and he starts getting wary about his hand. whereas he sees that flop and thinks overpair=nuts.

villain doesnt need 20BB at the start of the hand, he needs probably 150BB+ assuming you raise and get 3bet. Effective stack = the total amount you can possibly win. so if you have a million and villain has $2, you can still only win $2. same if you have $2 and he has a million, you cant win any more than $2. in this scenario, the effective stack size (ESS) would be $2.

when you call to set mine, you want the ESS to be roughly 20 times the amount you have to call to see the flop. going back to the example, if we open to $3 in a 100NL, and villain 3bets to $10, its $7 more for us to call, so the ESS needed would be $7 x 20, =$140 stack. both you and villain therefore need AT LEAST $140 each, as you will only be able to win the amount of the smallest stack

tbh jchoop i dont entirely know myself what im saying, im trying to put the puzzle together....its the same with anything when you start learning something, its hard to grasp and understand at the start no matter how well something is explained.....and you do explain things well, but its all abit complicated for me at this stage....but this thread will be here for ever so i can come back time and time again to re read things......i wish i could give you indepth responses to your replys, and i will do when i have experience and have studied all of this information......if i was to try and have a discussion with you about all this stuff at the moment, you wouldnt understand anything that i was saying, and not even google translate would be able to re word it for me haha
 
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