This is a discussion on probabilities within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; hey guys, ive been reading david skalanskys book theory holdem, and bloody hell the guy must be a mathematical genius.....he makes poker look like rocket 


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probabilities
hey guys, ive been reading david skalanskys book theory holdem, and bloody hell the guy must be a mathematical genius.....he makes poker look like rocket science.....needless to say after reading about 20 pages i was left disheartened.....so heres the question......
do you really need to work out probabilites before the flop?......what is expected value?.....how can i work out my chances of a specific hand i.e pocket kings holding up against a random hand preflop in simple terms....can i survive on only knowing basic odds, implied odds and outs using the rule of 4 and 2?.....cheers 
Similar Threads for: probabilities  
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Holdem odds and probabilities vs. Poker Maths that matters  16  4th November 2014 10:15 PM  Learning Poker  stefanorb 
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The most succesful players understand how to do "Sklansky" type calculations and from what I understand it becomes almost intuitive once you use it for a while. So, to answer your question "do you really need to work out probabilites before the flop?......" IT DEPENDS. How serious do you want to get, how hard is it really for you to develope the new skill, and do you still enjoy playing? Doyle Brunson's books are more hands on tips and I reallyt enjoy his teaching style. Good luck. 
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counting outs at this time is hard because i need about 5 minutes to work it out haha, but ive downloaded an app called 'ace poker drills' which helps with odds and outs...i practice on that ten minutes everyday....been doing it for about 4 days and im getting slightly quicker lol...... yeah i hope it becomes intuitive because i am awful at maths....just haven't got the brain capacity for it.....i struggle with the 7 times table ffs...haha....im serious...... one day i hope to be a good player, but im starting to think that the pro's and really successful guys are einsteins and that i will only get so far on a limited understanding.......thats fair enough i can accept that because its a fun game, and although i would like to earn some money, i would still play poker if it was only play money......i played zynga for 2 years haha so i love the game 
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This book you have, it has a reference in book to it titled Hold' Em Poker For Advanced Players, lol. Written by Sklansky and Malmuth. Heard some others talk about this book, but the one you are referring to sound much more interesting. I love mathematics and do need to put this concept into poker.
Can you tell me if this book is new or how old it is? Just asking because the style of play has changed as the game has become more popular. This book talks about starting hands quite a bit but not really into some of the deeper issues which you talk of here. Really would like to get a copy of your book. Also have Zen and the Art of Poker and another that goes with it. 
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I know how to do all the basic probabilities, but when people start to talk about EV formulas, and stuff like that I'm lost.
I remember the 1st time I read Bluenowhere's post where he wrote out the EV formula, I was starring at the screen like this: 
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re: Poker & probabilities
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as long as you do pokerstove calculations now and again when youre reviewing your week or whatever, youll start to just know these things as they sink in. a really simple example would be you have JJ and a guy 3bs you with a 3b stat of 2%, obv you can just fold (assuming you dont have the odds to set mine) expected value is the long term amount of profit you can expect to make with any decision, example youre playing 100NL and get AA in pre vs KK for 100BBs ea, or a $200 pot. youre an ~80% favourite, so your EV would be 80% of the pot ie $160, as you win $100 8/10 times and lose $100 2/10 times 
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haha jdawgs, im lost on basic probabilities....just cannot grasp the math.......the chance of getting two aces is 220/1.....so to get that you divide?...times?...52/4 51/3....god knows .....is it algebra?........this is what happens when you dont stick in at school kids

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thanks jchoop, im going to pore a whisky and try and understand your theory example....yeah im serious about poker....its just unfortunate im shite at maths....but like you say, it will sink in...i will have to rely on memorisation ....thanks again for the example mate

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you have 200BBs. villain has 75BBs you raise x3BBs ($3), and villain reraises to $10. you should fold, as you can only win a maximum of $75, and its costing you $7 more to call. you hit a set (off the top of my head) ~1 in 8.5 times, and you wont stack villain everytime you do hit one, as he wont always have a legitimate hand, might miss with his AK, might have KK and is scared by an A high board, etc. the exception to this rule would be when you are 100% sure your opponent has AA or KK (which you can be after a few thousand hands when they only 3bet 1.5% or something), in which case you can call without the chance to win 20 times the raise as youll be stacking them more often when you do peel a set 
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cheers guys.....so the villian would need $200 for me to call his raise?......i seen an article on pokerstratagy.com about 'call20'....im assuming thats what it meant....only call if the other guy has 20bb's....or in this case because he raised to $10 he would need the $200....i get it......i think........so i would only be profitable in the long run to call his AA or KK because i was the underdog anyway?

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I'm pretty sure this is not right. But I will let somebody else explain why lol 
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back to the point though, i want the standard villain to have like $140150 to make the $7 call preflop assuming im playing fit or fold dependent on whether i hit a set. personally, i make this call when villain has much less because i check/raise bluff on dry boards etc when i miss my set due to how strong it looks and the amount of folds i get, but ye probably stick to my initial advice for now lol 
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right im going to ask you a silly few questions here so bear with me........why does it matter how much money the villian has?.....say he has $75 and raises to $7 and we call, hoping to hit the set, then he would prob raise to $16?.. (we hit the set) .obv we would just call it and trap him.....is that right...trap?.....so on the river he would bet say $35 and we would reraise to $50 because thats all he would have right enough, but its still a nice pot.......now everything you say jchoop im taking as gospel because compared to me you are a pro, but i would just like to know why he would need to have 20bb at the start of the hand.....is it a rule of thumb that you follow these rules or do you look at each situation seperately depending on your starting hand probability......im sorry im coming across dense lol

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villain will (should) be raising the same amounts regardless of their holecards, otherwise we will know what he has. sure, he can raise more when he has AA or whatever, but then nobodys going to call and hes not gunna make any money. trapping is bad news at micros and id strongly advise against it. youre playing against a ton of baddies, who love calling bets, so bet. theyre going to call. not to mention say you have a nice little spot where villain has TT, you have 44 and flop is 248. you should look to get it in on that flop, as you probably arent going to stack villain when the inevitable J/Q/K/A peels on the turn or river and he starts getting wary about his hand. whereas he sees that flop and thinks overpair=nuts. villain doesnt need 20BB at the start of the hand, he needs probably 150BB+ assuming you raise and get 3bet. Effective stack = the total amount you can possibly win. so if you have a million and villain has $2, you can still only win $2. same if you have $2 and he has a million, you cant win any more than $2. in this scenario, the effective stack size (ESS) would be $2. when you call to set mine, you want the ESS to be roughly 20 times the amount you have to call to see the flop. going back to the example, if we open to $3 in a 100NL, and villain 3bets to $10, its $7 more for us to call, so the ESS needed would be $7 x 20, =$140 stack. both you and villain therefore need AT LEAST $140 each, as you will only be able to win the amount of the smallest stack 
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i think your scenario is you raise to $3, villain reraises to $7, you call. so pot on the flop is between $1417 depending on whether villain and/or ourselves were in the blinds. what id do on the flop here when i hit my set is entirely dependent on the flop texture, as well as our position, and our villains postflop tendencies. if i think my opponent has a legit hand, ill raise. if i dont think he does, then i wont. its comes down to being able to pick whether your opponent has a hand or not, which is why you need stats. if i think he has an overpair/TPTK type hands, ie hands that i can stack, i try to get as much money in as possible without raising him as this conceals the strength of our hand. the only time i will raise in position is when the board is threatening, say something like 678 with two hearts, where any heart, 9, T or 5 is going to kill a lot of our action. out of position, i try to avoid check/raising for value. microstakes players are shit at bluffing, and the check/raising range for most players is massively skewed to value. ie they wont check raise as a bluff ever. therefore, checkraises are viewed as being super strong hands the vast majority of the time. you checkraise most opponents on a flop, watch them flat and cautiously check down top pair top kick the next two streets. point of the story, i much prefer donking with my sets for value out of position, and save checkraising for like 75% bluffs and 25% value hands 
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re: Poker & probabilities
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#30




donking/donkbetting refers to when you lead into the preflop raiser.
so say you raise pre on the button and the big blind calls. flop comes down and instead of checking to the preflop raiser, he bets. this is a donkbet. and ye, implied odds are more relevant postflop than preflop imo. in theory, youll be getting the correct implied odds to call with a TON of hands preflop, many more than you can call with profitably 
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Similar Threads for: probabilities > Texas Hold'em Poker  
Thread  Replies  Last Post  Forum  Thread Starter 
Holdem odds and probabilities vs. Poker Maths that matters  16  4th November 2014 10:15 PM  Learning Poker  stefanorb 