"Priced him in"

J

johnoman

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I'm currently watching some EPT main evens on Youtube; I have a question about pot odds and pricing.
A hand between Brandstrom and Shorr in the Barcelon main event.

The post started at $265 00 with a raise of $485 000. Taking the pot to $755 000. Brandstrom needed to call the bet with $355 000. the commentary team stated that this was a 2:1 pot odds call. I understand where theyare getting these numbers from but the next comment is what stood out.
James Hartigan on the commentary panel said "he has been priced in". What does he mean by this? The hands were AKs vs KQo.

Am I incorrect to assume that pot odds are only really used to calculate whether or not to call a draw? If pot odds are 2:1 and the equity is 4:1, this would mean a fold unless implied odds dictate otherwise?
 
vinnie

vinnie

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Do you have a link to the specific hand you're talking about? Was this heads up? What were the blinds? Were either players in the blinds?

I am thinking this is based on several factors. First of all, there is an idea that you don't want your opponent to make an automatic profit from betting any two cards. In this case, one player is risking 485k to win 265k. If he succeeds more than 64.7% of the time, he shows an automatic profit from raising any two cards. To prevent that from happening, his opponent(s) need(s) to defend more than 35% of the time. KQo is easily within the top 35% of hands, and it's something you're almost forced to defend with in this spot. If you're not defending KQo, you're going to be folding too much. Can you think of a reasonable range that contains 35% of hands but doesn't contain KQo?

Yeah, against AKs, this is a horrible spot for KQo. But against the whole range of hands that might raise, KQo isn't a bad defend.

Pot odds always play a role, even when the hands aren't obvious draws. And, this isn't even an implied odds situation. There's a lot going on here. There's showdown equity and ex-showdown (outside showdown) equity. It's a lot harder than just throwing AKs and KQo into equilab and saying this should be a fold.
 
vinnie

vinnie

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Alright, let's get this hand transcribed a bit.

Players involved:
HJ: {2,320k}
CO: {3,130k}
BB: {485k}

It looks like the big blind is 25k.

CO holds KhQd

It folds to the HJ. HJ raises to 50k. CO 3bets to 155k. It folds to the BB, who shoves for 510k. HJ folds. Decision is on the CO.

Things to note:

  • The big blind only has 20 big blind left at the start of the hand, really 19 because he had to post.
  • The total pot is now 750k.
  • It costs 355k to call.
  • The CO needs just over 32% equity to call here.
Now construct a range that would shove. Or use one that already exists. A starting spot can be a SB open shoving range with 20bb {22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o}. We're going to want to be tighter than this, because we have 2 players (not 1) who have both raised. Maybe trim out everything but the Ax hands and pairs. {22+, A2s+, A2o+}

How does KQo do against that range? It has 40% equity. And that's a pretty horrible range for KQ. There's not a single hand we're ahead of preflop. The BB has to shove pretty wide, because he is so short. With the amount of money out there, the CO has the right price to call.

Does it stink to be up against AK here? Yes. But, it doesn't make the call bad.
 
Matt_Burns88

Matt_Burns88

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Alright, let's get this hand transcribed a bit.

Players involved:
HJ: {2,320k}
CO: {3,130k}
BB: {485k}

It looks like the big blind is 25k.

CO holds KhQd

It folds to the HJ. HJ raises to 50k. CO 3bets to 155k. It folds to the BB, who shoves for 510k. HJ folds. Decision is on the CO.

Things to note:
  • The big blind only has 20 big blind left at the start of the hand, really 19 because he had to post.
  • The total pot is now 750k.
  • It costs 355k to call.
  • The CO needs just over 32% equity to call here.
Now construct a range that would shove. Or use one that already exists. A starting spot can be a SB open shoving range with 20bb {22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o}. We're going to want to be tighter than this, because we have 2 players (not 1) who have both raised. Maybe trim out everything but the Ax hands and pairs. {22+, A2s+, A2o+}

How does KQo do against that range? It has 40% equity. And that's a pretty horrible range for KQ. There's not a single hand we're ahead of preflop. The BB has to shove pretty wide, because he is so short. With the amount of money out there, the CO has the right price to call.

Does it stink to be up against AK here? Yes. But, it doesn't make the call bad.


Great break down and analysis. This is what I wanted to say, but I would not have been able to explain it so well. Nice job!
 
J

johnoman

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Alright, let's get this hand transcribed a bit.

Players involved:
HJ: {2,320k}
CO: {3,130k}
BB: {485k}

It looks like the big blind is 25k.

CO holds KhQd

It folds to the HJ. HJ raises to 50k. CO 3bets to 155k. It folds to the BB, who shoves for 510k. HJ folds. Decision is on the CO.

Things to note:
  • The big blind only has 20 big blind left at the start of the hand, really 19 because he had to post.
  • The total pot is now 750k.
  • It costs 355k to call.
  • The CO needs just over 32% equity to call here.
Now construct a range that would shove. Or use one that already exists. A starting spot can be a SB open shoving range with 20bb {22+, A2s+, K4s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o}. We're going to want to be tighter than this, because we have 2 players (not 1) who have both raised. Maybe trim out everything but the Ax hands and pairs. {22+, A2s+, A2o+}

How does KQo do against that range? It has 40% equity. And that's a pretty horrible range for KQ. There's not a single hand we're ahead of preflop. The BB has to shove pretty wide, because he is so short. With the amount of money out there, the CO has the right price to call.

Does it stink to be up against AK here? Yes. But, it doesn't make the call bad.


That was such a good hand analysis!

Thank you for that - more than answered my question.
 
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