Pot Odds and Winning Odds confusion? :S

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HugePennies

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Hey guys and thanks in advance for your time and answers.

I searched a bit on the forums for this subject but most of other threads explored the subject in a way much different from the one I'm trying to.

So I recently download a hold'em calculator which displays winning odds and pot odds. It also displays the odds of other players winning and the odds of them having a pair/two pairs/etc individually as well as your outs.

But I'm still kind of a fish so I don't have any idea how to use this information. I've found out that using any of these Odds pre-flop sucks so I've already got over that.
Post-flop they make me decide if I should bet or not (for example, I may have 58% chances of winning with 25% pot odds, in which case I bet).

But I've found out several times that trusting this strategy is getting me out of tournaments sooner than my grandma hits a tree with her car.

So I decided not to do this, but instead to look at my opponent's odds of having X hand and deciding if they had it or not based on my reads, and this seems to be the much profitable way to use them.
Some people have also told me to forget about Pot and Winning Odds unless I have a draw because Pot Odds are only useful in that way and Winning Odds are useless because they assume I'm playing against random hands when I'm not..

My questions are:
1. When exactly to use this Odds?
2. What's the best strategy to use them?

Thanks again :D
 
Last edited:
micromachine

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Sounds like you're relying on this calculator too much and it's confusing you.

Pot odds calculations are normally used for deciding whether to make calls rather than deciding whether to bet or not, and you really don't need to think so much about percentages when deciding whether to bet, you just need a good reason to:

1) For value - you want worse hands to call
2) As a bluff - you want better hands to fold, this may take the form of
a) a continuation bet - when you miss the flop (some don't class c-bets as bluffs but w/e)
b) a semi-bluff - when you flop some equity such as a flush draw
c) a pure bluff

As for calling it's probably easier to learn the chances of hitting your hand on the next street in a few common scenarios such as flush or straight draws, and how to make a quick rough calculation whether to call based on call to pot ratio.

It'll come with time anyway, hope some of that's useful. GL
 
Gorblid

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for example if you play at the button (D) with 40 BB JhTh
all fold except 1 that raised 3 BB you call, SB fold BB call
flop comes Ah4h5s

in the pot there are 10 BB total, the player at the BigB Check quickly, the CUT OFF before you raises 10BB, if you put him to any hand that is pair of Aces or better, trips.. you has to catch a flush thats is 9 cards lefts in the deck that are hearts that will give you a winning flush, that is 36% to catch(to calc you just mul X4 on the flop, to calc frrom the turn multiple X2,
that the basic anyway, It is really easy to learn this a very helpful technique when you catch it and start to do it at the brain on auto without any software
just brains :)

pot odds: to calc the pot odds you first cals future TOTAL pot sum: current pot + bets and calls before you and after you + your future called bet = 10BB(POT)+10BB(BET)+10BB(YOUR CALL)= 30BB

then you divide your future call by the SUM: SUM/YOUR CALL: 30BB/10BB= 3:1 = 66%:33%
and you have 36% chance to get a flush by the river (winning chance), so its worth to call for this example.
if it was 15BB BET
10+15+15=40/15
2.6:1~ 37.5%
not worth to cal 15BB bet cause the POT odds are bigger then your winning chance(36% catch a flush 9outs X 4)
 
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micromachine

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It's not good to use 36% to decide whether to call in your above example.

You can't use the chances of making your hand by the river to decide whether to call a flop bet. What if you call and villain shoves the turn?? Then you would have to call 27BB (what you have left) for an 80BB pot, with only an 18% chance of making your flush - now you don't have the correct odds to call.

That's why it's better to use the 2X rule to decide whether to call a post flop bet when drawing.

Other reasons that 36% is too high are 1) You might be drawing dead if villain has KhQh and 2) Some outs may not be real outs - if villain has a set of 4s for example, then 5h is not an out because it boats him up.
 
Leo 50

Leo 50

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That's why it's better to use the 2X rule to decide whether to call a post flop bet when drawing.

So if I read you correctly, use 2x post flop to calculate your odds? Not 4x then 2x?

:cool:
 
dmorris68

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So if I read you correctly, use 2x post flop to calculate your odds? Not 4x then 2x?

:cool:
Yes. The rule is actually 2x per street, it's 4x on the flop because there are 2 streets to come. But it also assumes no further betting. Since that's not the case on most flops, the argument is that using 2x on flop and then re-evaluating with 2x on turn based on action is generally the wisest play.
 
Gorblid

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It's not good to use 36% to decide whether to call in your above example.

You can't use the chances of making your hand by the river to decide whether to call a flop bet. What if you call and villain shoves the turn?? Then you would have to call 27BB (what you have left) for an 80BB pot, with only an 18% chance of making your flush - now you don't have the correct odds to call.

That's why it's better to use the 2X rule to decide whether to call a post flop bet when drawing.

Other reasons that 36% is too high are 1) You might be drawing dead if villain has KhQh and 2) Some outs may not be real outs - if villain has a set of 4s for example, then 5h is not an out because it boats him up.


I know all this, but I tried to teach a newbie the simple basics of pot odds and winning odds, of course a good player must relay more on his previous readings of opponents, and after that only to take in count the winning odds..
 
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