This is a discussion on Pot odds vs tournament life within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; I have a bit of a ponderance to querry . . .
Okay, I sound dumb.
I understand that if pot odds are in
I understand that if pot odds are in your favor, it is profitable over the long term to call. But here's where I run into a problem.
Let's say I am mid stack in a tournament.
I am holding Ah 7h.
x # of callers makes the pot 500.
After the pre-flop bets, I have 1k chips.
Flop comes Qh 9h Kc
Let's pretend, for ease of math, that there are 2 betters in front of me, one bets
#1 bets 1500
#2 raises 2500
Pot is now 5000
I have a nuts flush draw, likely vs a straight, or some other already well made hand. Pot odds says I should call (bet 1000 to win 5000 [5:1] compared to 9 outs to 38 useless cards [apx. 4:1] - to make my point, I am not worried about catching the A for a pair, nor running into a straight.)
My call puts my tournament life on the line . . . but a catch gives me a pretty good stack!
But I have about a 3 of 4 chance of going out . . .
I should . . . . . . . . . . . . ?????
If I run into this situation multiple times in a tourney, wouldn't it make it very unprobable that I would survive that long???
20th March 2009, 2:49 AM
Game: NL Holdem
You aren't getting 5:1 you are getting 2.5:1 Its enough to justify the call especially seeing as you are virtually out of the tournament anyway at this point,
20th March 2009, 2:57 AM
Online Poker at: WPN
Good question, well put.
At the crux of this question lies the major difference between tourney and ring. In a ring game its an insta call, in a tourney it could be fatal. Your math is good here. But you are not a machine.
As you're are reacting to action in front of you, I suggest you error on the side of survival. Fold out here. If however you are first to act, You shove here and pray.
In every tourney you will find that big laydowns are necessary.
20th March 2009, 3:28 AM
Four Dogs [4,146]
Poker at: Live
Pot odds are not the be all end all in tournaments the way they are in cash games. Early on in the tournament when stacks are deep in relation to the blinds, that analogy holds relatively true, but later on when the blinds and antes are high relative to stacks, survival is more of a driving force in your decision making.
That's not to say you should be timid, but rather that your thought process should be more in the lines of "what's in it for me? What do I have to gain or lose by making this call, fold or raise? How will this improve my chances of winning the tournament?" Often you'll find that folding with the correct pot odds is the best course of acton. This is especially true in satellites when your close to the money, or in situations where you feel you have a legitimate skill advantage over your opponents. You'll often find situations where several opponents at your table have very tenuous hold of their stacks and there's a good chance better opportunities to outplay them will arrise.
Other times, particularly when your short stacked late in the tournament, it may be advisable to take a chance to double or tripple up even if the odds don't support it if the alternative is blinding out in the next 5 hands.
In yourA♥7♥ example above you are actually getting better than the correct odds to call. You're drawing exclusively to the nut flush. As far as you know you've got 9 outs which is 35% with 2 cards to come. There's $4500 (not $5000) in the pot, but both your opponents have you covered so there will be a side pot of at least $3000. You stand to win $1000 from each of them in addition to the $500 already in the pot, so PO's are 2.5:1 and you only need 1.86:1 to make this a profitable call...IN A RING GAME! But this is a tournament. If I were a big stack, facing another big stack this would be an easy fold. I'm not going to jeopardize my tournament life when I can make better use of my imposing stack outplaying my opponents. Short stack is another story alltogether. By the size of the pot and bets in your example it doesn't look like you've got more than 2 or 3 BB's left. Your deep in the red zone and this may be your best chance to claw your way back even if if the pot odds didn't support it. IMO this is a must call.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that tournaments are not cash games. In a ring game EV is all that matters. In a tournament it's just a tool to help you make tough decisions but should rarely be the deciding factor.
20th March 2009, 3:45 AM
Kenzie 96 [11,118]
Online Poker at: pokerstars
re: Poker & Pot odds vs tournament life
Nice responses guys.
21st March 2009, 6:04 AM
Game: NLH/2-7 Trip
Do the math then get a read on the situation.
If you feel it .... Go for it.
If you don't .... Fold.
Everything comes into play when making major decisions that involve your Tournament Life.
No easy answers.
23rd March 2009, 9:39 AM
Online Poker at: FULLTILT
1st of all were u the SB or BB if not what r u doing in the hand A7 suited or not is hardly a good starting hand unless it dont cost u much to see the flop
ok now after the flop there are 2 raises so figure they both got you beat at this point but you only got 1000 chips left so depending on how far the bubble is and what the antes are you almost have to call here unless u r close to the $$$ its def a calling hand now U got 9 outs so far depending what the turn is.
does this happen alot to you in the early stages of tourny play if so I would say you got to start folding A-rag hands and only play the top 10 till u build up chips and a table image other wise it will continue to happen beleive me I been there done that myself
6th April 2009, 6:51 PM
Poker at: UB
Thanks a lot y'all.
This was not a real hand, I was trying to make up a situation where I had a flush draw, with good pot odds, which would make me all-in. (And as the math goes, I was changing the numbers as I was typing further down the post, so I was kind of um, guessing?) :-)
Now let's say this happens to be a good call now and I 3x up, but still remain short stack. If it were to happen again the next hand (higher numbers to put me all in again), would it be a good call again?
I guess the main idea of this question is this: If I go all in in a tourney with good odds, eventually I'm going to lose . . .
9th April 2009, 7:27 PM
Your states are a bit wrong. First of all, on the flop the pot is 500, and someone raises 1500, and the other reraises 2500... but if you call you wont get all that money if you win... you would only win 1000 of each of those raises. So it would be 500 from the pot, and 1000 each from the 2 guys, which is 2500. Now... if you call... you are risking 1000 of your to win 2500... so the proportions are 1 - 2.5... and your odds of winning run on you getting a flush. You know there are 9 hearts left in the game, and there are 47 cards that are still not exposed. So it would be 9/47 on the turn and 9/46 on the river... adding these two would be a bit less than 18/46 for you to catch... which is 38.7%... so multiply that times 2.5 and you would win 96.75 while you would lose 1x71.3%... = 71.3... so statistically you would be right to call... IF IT WERE A CASH GAME. but things in a tourney are quite a bit different. I personally in your situation would call since i am low in chips and need something to keep me going... but if i were already in a good position to win... i might fold since i wouldnt wanna be nocked out of the tournament.
12th April 2009, 4:56 AM
Poker at: bodog
re: Poker & Pot odds vs tournament life
play to win. if you have nut flush draw for a huge pot that could assure you in the money or more then do it. say you dont do it and go card dead and blind away and dont come close to cashing anyway. you have to get lucky once to win a tourny.
12th April 2009, 3:11 PM
Online Poker at: Bovada
I try not to ever risk my tounament life when pot odds are involved.
Pot odds are in your favor alot of times early in a tournament,but I will rarley risk my whole stack whenim racing with 2 or 3 people.
12th April 2009, 3:23 PM
Poker at: bodog
Game: NL holdem
Pot odd calculations are not always the best decision makers/breakers in situations like the one described, because the value of chips is different. Pot odd calculations are skewed in a tournament, simply because chips 1-5,000 are much more valuable than chips 5,001-10,000. Your last chip is the most valuable of all; lose it and you are eliminated. So, the chips that you stand to win are not as valuable as the chips you stand to lose (again, in a tournament). Keep this in mind when making your calculations and decisions.
Pot odds are not the only thing to consider here, in a tournament . In a cash game, since you have a NUT flush draw, it would be a reasonable call, since you can always reload.
If you were 1st to act, and were on the short stack, then an all-in bet preflop is one way to go. However, when not 1st to act, depending on the number of players who already entered the pot, it may even be a folding situation. After the flop, seeing a bet and a raise in front of you, then with Ace high, it is probably a fold situation - unless you are very close to the blinds and would be blinded out (not giving you much of a chance to catch a better hand).