Pot odds question

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Conorsr

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When calculating pot odds using 4/2 rule I see mixed answers when there is turn and river to come
Some say you calculate the odds by 4 and some say only by 2 each hand unless it’s all in then you times by 4

E.g flush draw on flop I have 9 outs opponent bets $1 into $4 pot I have 5-1 pot odds and 4-1 (20%) poker odds to hit it on the turn and about 38% chance of hitting it on turn or river

The way I see it is if I don’t hit it on the turn there will be another round of betting and therefore the pot odds might not be in my favour to call so I should only calculate it by 2 not 4 unless it’s all in is this correct ?
 
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Also if this is correct and a flush draw has 20% chance of hitting does this then mean that anything that is a half pot size bet or more (which requires 25% or more to be a +EQ call) mean I should be folding ?
 
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fundiver199

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Unfortunately there is no simple answer to that question. Whenever we decide to call, we need to figure out our equity and pot odds, but unless its on the river, and we are closing action, this is only part of the story. In some situations we are going to actualize more than our share of equity due to betting on later streets, and in other situations it is going to be less. This is sometimes called implied odds or reverse implied odds.

A good example is setmining. If we get 3-bet by a very tight player, we might think, he probably has AA or KK. But we might still elect to call with 99, if stacks are deep, because we think, we can win a huge pot, if we flop a set. So we are not calling, because we think, we are getting the right direct odds, but we are calling because of implied odds.

In the situation with a draw on the flop, it is very conservative to think, that we are always going to have to put in more money on the turn, when we miss, but that we will never get paid, when we hit. Usually neither of those assumptions are true, and therefore its usually fine to continue on the flop with a good draw, even when we need more than 20% equity.

Many things matter here though. Are we closing action, or could it still get raised by someone behind? Are we drawing to the nuts? If not we need to factor in the money, we stand to lose, when we improve to a second best hand. Drawing to the low end of a straight is often not all that great, and also not to a low flush, if a lot of players saw the flop. Drawing on paired boards can also be dangerous, because someone could have or make a full house.

Are we in or out of position? Always better to be in position. Do we have additional equity like an overcard? Is the hand, we are trying to improve to, very obvious? Having AX on KQJT rainbow gives us the nuts, but its difficult to get called by worse, and we often end up chopping.

Sometimes it is also better to play the draw with aggression. In that way you give yourself more ways to win the pot, and you also become more difficult to play against, than if you only bet or raise with made hands. So as you can see, there goes a lot more into the decision making process than just calculating pot odds. Hope this helps you improve you play with drawing hands :)
 
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fundiver199 said:
Unfortunately there is no simple answer to that question. Whenever we decide to call, we need to figure out our equity and pot odds, but unless its on the river, and we are closing action, this is only part of the story. In some situations we are going to actualize more than our share of equity due to betting on later streets, and in other situations it is going to be less. This is sometimes called implied odds or reverse implied odds.

A good example is setmining. If we get 3-bet by a very tight player, we might think, he probably has AA or KK. But we might still elect to call with 99, if stacks are deep, because we think, we can win a huge pot, if we flop a set. So we are not calling, because we think, we are getting the right direct odds, but we are calling because of implied odds.

In the situation with a draw on the flop, it is very conservative to think, that we are always going to have to put in more money on the turn, when we miss, but that we will never get paid, when we hit. Usually neither of those assumptions are true, and therefore its usually fine to continue on the flop with a good draw, even when we need more than 20% equity.

Many things matter here though. Are we closing action, or could it still get raised by someone behind? Are we drawing to the nuts? If not we need to factor in the money, we stand to lose, when we improve to a second best hand. Drawing to the low end of a straight is often not all that great, and also not to a low flush, if a lot of players saw the flop. Drawing on paired boards can also be dangerous, because someone could have or make a full house.

Are we in or out of position? Always better to be in position. Do we have additional equity like an overcard? Is the hand, we are trying to improve to, very obvious? Having AX on KQJT rainbow gives us the nuts, but its difficult to get called by worse, and we often end up chopping.

Sometimes it is also better to play the draw with aggression. In that way you give yourself more ways to win the pot, and you also become more difficult to play against, than if you only bet or raise with made hands. So as you can see, there goes a lot more into the decision making process than just calculating pot odds. Hope this helps you improve you play with drawing hands :)
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Some great advice here, I will analyse some hand histories and apply these variables to better understand the complexity of thoughts that go into making a decision in a hand, thank you :)
 
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