This is a discussion on Pot odds math question within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; I have a question about pot odds, concerning the mathematics behind it. Suppose that we have just seen the turn. Suppose that our equity remains
I have a question about pot odds, concerning the mathematics behind it. Suppose that we have just seen the turn. Suppose that our equity remains fixed from this point on. Suppose also that the pot has 100 chips. Suppose that the villain always bets the full pot, no matter what. Just go with it.
Now villain bets the full pot (100 chips) as expected, so that the new pot becomes 200 chips. In that case, we need to call 100 to win 200. Our equity needs to be at least 50% in order to break even on average.
Suppose that we call, then we move on to the river. The card, we assume, does not change our equity. The villain again bets the full pot (300 chips) as expected, so that the new pot becomes 600 chips.
What equity do we need to break even? According to my own math, this should be 50% to break even from the river's point of view. However, we knew what the villain was going to do, so when we take the turn as the point of reference, then we actually need an equity of at least (100+300)/600 = ~67% to break even.
Is this right? If not, what is the mistake in my reasoning? How does this influence our decision-making?
on turn if you need to call 100 to win 200 you need 33 percent not 50 for breakeven. see if you call once and loose you are -100 if you call second time and loose you are -200 if you call third time and win 200 then you are breakeven so for the turn only it is 33 percent breakeven
November 13th, 2017, 5:29 PM
Poker at: PokerStars
Oh, of course. Thank you. You are correct. I made a stupid mistake there.
So actually you would need 2/5 equity on the river to break even.
600 * p - 400 * (1 - p) = 0
600 * p - 400 + 400 * p = 0
1000 * p = 400
p = 400/1000 = 2/5
November 13th, 2017, 5:41 PM
re: Poker & Pot odds math question
BREAKEVEN % is risk(risk + reward) 400/(400 + 600)
If you knew you had to call 100 on turn and 300 on river then yes it's 400 to win 1000 or 2/5 or 40%
November 13th, 2017, 6:28 PM
Poker at: PS Party 888
The villain puts these bets because isolating possible draws on the turn and it's value betting river if the equity of the hand above the pot odds we can call or even raise on the turn if you have nuts.