Pot odds on this hand. Why Tran calls.

Do I have this right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upkSQ3Bth8Q&t=32m

Initial post is 3100
The raise is 800
Pot is now 3900

Tran calls.
The pot odds = Call / (Pot + Call) = 800/3900 = 20%
(Announcer says Tran is getting 4:1 odds on the call)

How many outs does Tran have?
Tran needs a 9 for the straight.
I guess pairing his 8 or 7 also counts in heads up?
So, a total of 12 outs? Rule of 2/4 means odds of hitting are 24%/48%
Both are much higher than the pot odds of 20%
So, he calls. Right?
If you only count the 9 as the only out, it's 8%/12% pot equity for Tran.

Actually, it says Tran has 34% pot equity. How is that? It must be including 7 and 8 for the pair that would win if opponent doesn't pair his A9.
So, Tran has 3 outs: 7 8 9 (10 outs), which gives 20%/40% which is closer to the 34% being displayed.

The win% displayed refers to the probablity that either player wins assuming that the hand goes to showdown.

PS, terrible. A larger flop bet probably shoves Tran off the hand.

Initial pot is 2,300,00
Raise is 800,000
Pot is now 3,100,000
Pot odds are 3,100,000/800,000 = 3.9:1

Tran has only 9 outs: 7c,7d,7h,8d,8h,8s,9c,9d,9s
He has 34% equity and only needs (1-.34)/.34 = 1.9:1 pot odds to make the call.

Actually Ladybugger had the odds correct. It's 39/8 which is a little better than 4:1 (it's ~20.5%). 31/8 is more like 3:1. You're right that there were 9 different cards that give JC the lead in that hand.

LB, Tran had ~33.7% equity on the flop versus his opponent's exact holding, so the rule of 4 and 2 is pretty close there (Carlos had some redraws to overcards/flushes). 9 × 4 being 36 obv. From JC's perspective he had 10 cards that improve him (he doesn't know Carlos holds a 9) out of 47 unknown cards. 10/47 is about 21.3% to improve on the turn alone which exceeds his 4:1 pot odds. Of course, he doesn't know for sure if pairing the 7 or 8 actually gives him the best hand, and he's also out of position with less than a psb behind him should he flat. Poker can be tricky sometimes.

If Tran assumes he doubles through when he turns a straight then (again, from his perspective) it's ~8.5% to bink ott versus a required ~10.4% implied odds. Also, and it goes without saying I guess, but there's a lot more to late MTT play than cEV and implied odds etc.

Given that both have been around the circuit for some time, it seems reasonable to assume that Tran at least partly based his decision to call on playing the man and his style, not just on what he thought the odds were. For instance, how often does he think pairing his 7 or 8 will put him ahead? That depends on what he thinks Mortenson's range is. And he's almost certainly putting him on a different range than he'd assign to a different type of player.

can 7 and 8 really be considered as an out when the T is on the board? i already responded to another tread with same question, can 4 and 5 be counted as a back door outs like .5 out for each card? i think i saw calculating backdoor outs that way in ace poker drills, i might got that wrong it would be nice if someone would clear this out to me but this way tran would have roughly 32% if you counting 4 outs 9 and 4 outs of 4 and 5 as a .5 of an out so 8 outs 32% using rule of four...

DunningKruger said:

Actually Ladybugger had the odds correct. It's 39/8 which is a little better than 4:1 (it's ~20.5%). 31/8 is more like 3:1. You're right that there were 9 different cards that give JC the lead in that hand.

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Are you sure? I believe that Tran has to call 800,000 for a chance to win the 3,100,000 pot. You are adding Trans bet to the pot BEFORE he makes the call. Pot odds should be 31/8 = 3.875:1. Your percentage is correct though: 1 / (1 + 3.875) = 20.51%.

Yes, I'm sure. You always add your call to the pot when you do the math, and this can be demonstrated with a simplistic example. If the pot is $100 and I bet full pot and stick in 100 dollars myself, then it's $100 for you to call and your pot odds are 100/300 or ~33%. The 300 is the $100 originally in the pot, the $100 I just bet, and the $100 that'd be in there once you call. If you win that $300 dollar pot 1/3 or ~33% of the time on average you break even on the call (since you get your call back when you win obv).

For this reason you'll never need more than 50% equity to call a bet (a river bet we'll say, as the prospect of facing further bets down the road does complicate the matter) no matter how little is in the pot or how much is being wagered. What I think's confusing you is expressing the odds as a ratio versus using a fraction or a percentage. You wouldn't add your call to the left side of the ratio - it would just be expressed as (100+100):100 or 2:1. 31/8 does not equal 3.875:1 like you said.

Edit: Hey whereabouts in Toronto are you. I lived there most of my life.

@dunning
m8 please clear this for me, if it is easier for me to calculate hand odds as percentage using 4 and 2 and if i want to express the pot odds as percentage too i need to devide my call with total pot plus my call, of course that number will be decimal but if i multiply it with 100 i get percentage. Im I got it right??? This is the closest i ever been to figuring out the hand and pot odds, please help

Sent from my HTC Desire X using Tapatalk

Sounds like you got it right. Expressed as a ratio it's pot:bet, whereas as a fraction it's bet/(pot+bet). Divide the numerator by the denominator to get the percentage, and as you said multiply by 100%.

If the only known cards are in your hand and on the board, your chances of hitting an out are about 2.128% on the turn for every out you have. On the river it's about 2.174% for every out. 2 is usually a good enough approximation (as per the rule of 4 and 2) per street.

DunningKruger said:

Yes, I'm sure. You always add your call to the pot when you do the math, and this can be demonstrated with a simplistic example. If the pot is $100 and I bet full pot and stick in 100 dollars myself, then it's $100 for you to call and your pot odds are 100/300 or ~33%. The 300 is the $100 originally in the pot, the $100 I just bet, and the $100 that'd be in there once you call. If you win that $300 dollar pot 1/3 or ~33% of the time on average you break even on the call (since you get your call back when you win obv).

For this reason you'll never need more than 50% equity to call a bet (a river bet we'll say, as the prospect of facing further bets down the road does complicate the matter) no matter how little is in the pot or how much is being wagered. What I think's confusing you is expressing the odds as a ratio versus using a fraction or a percentage. You wouldn't add your call to the left side of the ratio - it would just be expressed as (100+100):100 or 2:1.

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I agree with what you say here and I think the earlier misunderstanding stems from the fact that your focus was on calculating pot odds as a percentage whereas my focus was on pot odds as a ratio.

OP did not correctly describe the initial pot size and this may also have caused some confusion. The initial pot size going to the flop was 2,300,000 (not 3,100,000). Tran checks and Carlos Mortensen bets 800,000. At this point, the pot size is 3,100,000. Tran then makes the call of 800,000 so that the pot size going to the turn is 3,900,000.

DunningKruger said:

31/8 does not equal 3.875:1 like you said.

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With 3,100,000 in the pot, Tran must decide whether to call Mortensen's 800,000 bet. Shouldn't the calculation of pot odds as a ratio, according to your description above, not be (initial pot going to flop + Mortensen's bet):amount required to call = (2,300,000 + 800,000):800,000 = 31:8. I'm pretty sure this ratio reduces to 3.875:1 or approximately 4:1.

We both agree that Tran's pot odds expressed as a percentage are 20.51%. I believe that in order to convert this percentage back to a ratio the calculation is as follows: 100% - 20.51% / 20.51% = 3.875. Accordingly, a pot odds percentage of 20.51% converts to a pot odds ratio of 3.875:1.

DunningKruger said:

Edit: Hey whereabouts in Toronto are you. I lived there most of my life..

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I live in Etobicoke. Where do you live now?

I'm in Alberta. Would love to move back home sometime. Maybe I'll do that.

31:8 and 3.875:1 are the same, yes. I made that remark because you used 31/8 instead of 31:8. I guess I was just confused by what you meant.

DrazaFFT said:

can 7 and 8 really be considered as an out when the T is on the board?

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The concept of outs is often not as simple as it's made out to be, where a given card is either an out or it's not. In this case, hitting a 7 or 8 might be enough to win, or it might not. So the 7s and 8s aren't "clean" or "pure" outs. However, they're also not valueless, which brings us to the sub-concept of "discounted" or "partial" outs.

As a simplified example, let's say Tran puts Carlos on a range where hitting a 7 or 8 will give him the better hand 35% of the time. That means the 7s and 8s are each worth .35 outs. They are discounted because they'll only win sometimes, but because they'll win sometimes, valuing them as 0 outs isn't fully accurate.