Are my pot odds calculations correct?

Hey

I've been trying to get to grips with calculating pot odds on the fly, despite being TERRIBLE at maths; just wondering if somebody could confirm I'm doing them correctly - or put me straight....

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Chasing a nut flush draw on the turn with one card to come.

- 9 Outs

- 4 to 1 chance of hitting it (18 goes into 100 5.5 times, subtract 1) using 2/4 rule

- Pot size is $20

- Opponent bets £9 giving offering just over 3 to 1 meaning I have to fold.

- The maximum sized bet I can call is around $5 (giving me 4 to 1)

I suspect the maximum sized but I can call is wrong and that I'm not working it out correctly, also a little confused about if the bet size of the opponent is included in the pot; ie - if he bets $9 into a $20 pot, is the pot to be worked out on $20 or $29?

Hope you can help

Martin

If he bets $9 into a $20 pot, most people seem to say that you work it out with the pot at $29.

What I never understood is the fact that - if you do call - your $9 doesn't just go away. If you call the $9 and win, you don't win a $29 pot, you win a $38 pot. So why don't we treat the pot as $38 in these calculations?

Hm.

Bovinity said:

If he bets $9 into a $20 pot, most people seem to say that you work it out with the pot at $29.

What I never understood is the fact that - if you do call - your $9 doesn't just go away. If you call the $9 and win, you don't win a $29 pot, you win a $38 pot. So why don't we treat the pot as $38 in these calculations?

Hm.

Click to expand...

Because thats your money if you start with $1000 and put $300 in the pot and 1 other caller puts $300 in the pot thats a $600 pot if you win your not at $1600 your at $1300 you won $300

U calculate this simply.

What are the odds at the moment it is your turn to act?

In the case presented we are not sure of position and the betting sequence. Assuming opp bets before you and makes the pot $29, his $9 more than covers you and you would only win $25 ($4 returned to villain) for that $5 you bet. Giving you 5 to 1 odds.

The notion of implied odds gets affected if this is a multiway pot with others to act behind you. Your money would be in and you can't imply that you would make anther $9 off a behind you addition to the pot, u would only get $5 of that.

You can see it gets fuzzy. So for simplicities sake think what the odds are at that moment you are to act only.

So are my pot odd calculations correct?

you are getting 2.9:9 on your call
roughly 3:1
at first glance you need at least 4:1 to call
BUT
implied odds come into play
if you call and hit will the villain call another bet on the river
implied odds can give you a reason to call
you have to have some kind of read to use implied odds
(will they call or raise etc)

as regards outs

you can work your outs out by counting the cards
on the flop with a flush draw you have 9 outs
you have seen the two cards of your hand
and three cards on the flop
total = 5 cards seen
this means there are 47 cards not seen (52 - 5)
9 of these unseen cards will make a flush
38 of them wont
therefore your odds of hitting are 38/9
(just over 4:1)
on the river (one card to come)
your odds are 37/9
(closer to 4:1 but not much)
its easier to memorise the common hands outs
flush draw = 4:1
str8 draw = 6:1 (almost)
etc.
calling with these odds is about break even play
you should be calling with better odds
remember when playing draws
you should be drawing to the NUTS
the way you are doing it seems ok to me too
the 4 and 2 rule works very well
it gives a good approximation of your odds
enough to know if it is +ev
have a search for pot odds and implied odds
plenty of info out there
and on here
good luck

A lot of factors come into play here:

-Does my call close the action?
...If there are players to act behind you, this could affect your odds calculation. Lets say there are 2 players left to act behind you. If you're 100% sure they'll call the $9 bet as well, then you're giving yourself implied odds to call. However, nothing is ever a sure thing. They can easily fold or raise, thus giving you improper odds to call.

-Are you getting implied odds?
...It's been mentioned already. Think of implied odds as the extra bets you can win if your hand hits. It also helps to put your opponent on a range of hands or a hand to determine how much they'll be willing to call a bet. If you put your opponent on 2 pair, they might be more willing to call a bet if you hit your flush-giving you great implied odds. If they have something weaker, they might be less inclined to call-giving you poor implied odds. If you're getting good implied odds to draw to a hand (nut flush is good implied odds), then call if you're opponent will pay of a value bet at the end. If you're getting bad implied odds, then stick with regular pot odds.

-A general rule of thumb for pot odds is: If pot odds > hand odds, call. If pot odds < hand odds, fold. (Not taking implied odds into consideration.)

-Also, try looking up pot odds charts and keeping one handy to peek at when you need to. No harm in that. If you're playing live games, then I suggest memorizing the chart. You don't need to know every one...I think maybe 8 outs - 12 outs, since you'll rarely have many situations where you're getting 13 outs or better. And same for lower 8 outs.