Pot Odds Calculations

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BluffThisAndMuck

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Need some advice all. I frequently will use a pot odds calculator to determine whether or not I should continue on a draw and call a players bet. I also have read about 'the rule of 4 and 2'. The rule of 4 and 2 states that you multiply the number of outs you have by 4 on the flop to calculate the chances of hitting your card on the turn or river. It also states that you multiply your outs by 2 on the turn to calculate the chances of hitting your card on the river. I also know that if you multiply your outs by 2 and add 1, that this will calculate the chances of hitting your card on the next street.

I am left confused on which calculations I should follow. If I have a flush draw (9 outs) on the flop, and someone is betting into me, do I use the percentage of hitting it on the next street or the percentage of hitting it on the next two streets? With a flush draw, you have a 19% chance of hitting your card on the turn, and a 32% chance of hitting it on the turn or the river. Just curious what you are all using.
 
DaReKa

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Use the chance to hit it on the next street, as you will likely need to call another bet to see the river. If you think your opponent will often fold, a better strategy is to raise rather than call, giving yourself the chance to win the hand by your opponent folding as well as hitting your draw if he calls. You will win with your drawing hands much more often this way
 
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BluffThisAndMuck

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Thanks for the reply. I do like your advice about raising, however, I would be afraid of a 3bet which could potentially force me to fold. I will test it a bit and see how i like it, but i usually try to get to my draw as cheaply as possible for obvious reasons.

Im still left confused about the rule of 4 and 2. Is this generally just bad advice?
 
DaReKa

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The rule of 4 and 2 is just so you can quickly calculate your %chance of winning a hand. Use the rule of 2 for figuring out your chance to improve on the next street. If you get it all in on the flop, the rule of four applies. Also keep in mind that your chance of winning is always slightly higher than what you get when you use the rule. Other things to keep in mind is whether or not your outs are good. For instance if you have outs to hit a flush on a paired board, your opponent might already have a full house. And don't worry about getting 3bet, it doesn't happen often, and when it does you usually have odds to call at that point anyway. Another thing to remember is that when your raise on the flop is called, don't slow down on the turn (unless you have good reason to believe your opponent won't fold) Plenty of people call flops and fold turns, and when they don't fold you'll still win some of the time. So don't be "scared money." Bet those draws.
 
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BluffThisAndMuck

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Thank you for clearing that up for me.
 
Arjonius

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The rule of 4 and 2 is just so you can quickly calculate your %chance of winning a hand.
It's a quick way to approximate the % chance of **improving** your hand, not of winning.

For example, let's say you have AK on a board like 9 5 2 rainbow. You have six outs to TPTK, but you'll still be well behind if the opponent who has a set or two pair.

This is why, when you're drawing to a hand that's not the effective nuts, the concept of discounted outs comes into play. Your outs aren't "clean", so shouldn't be given the same value as when they are.
 
AlfieAA

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Well i read somewhere on here that you should count 1 street but then someone else told me 2 streets, so i dont know......as it stands i count with 2 cards to come....coz not alot of time you are gonna get 4/1 to hit that flush if you are gonna count it at 1 street at a time......maybe someone could clear this up.......??????
 
Samango

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Well i read somewhere on here that you should count 1 street but then someone else told me 2 streets, so i dont know......as it stands i count with 2 cards to come....coz not alot of time you are gonna get 4/1 to hit that flush if you are gonna count it at 1 street at a time......maybe someone could clear this up.......??????

This question does come up fairly frequently

Here are a couple of quite recent posts on the subject, with one including a more refined version known as Solomon's Rule

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/general-poker-13/4-2-rule-problems-210871/

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/learning-poker-57/probability-question-202912/


There are many, many more if you search titles for '2&4 rule'
 
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