Pot Odds Calculated as Percentage

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ThoughtsOuttaSeason

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Hi, I'm new to poker and this forum. Posted this earlier but the formatting got botched somehow. Only been playing for about a month and strictly limiting myself to .02/.04 NL Hold em online cash games. Currently I'm trying to get my outs to pot odds calculations memorized. Usually I read about pot odds expressed as a ratio (The break even pot odds for 2 outs is 22 - 1, for example). But I find ratios difficult to process mentally. For whatever reason, percentages make more sense to me, so I'm trying to work out the outs to pot odds calculations in terms of percentage. My question phrased as an example is: Say we've just seen the flop and we've got 6 outs to make our hand. According to this chart (http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/percentage/) there's a 12.8% chance 1 of our 6 cards will appear on the turn. So does this mean, in order to make a statistically profitable call or bet here, the value of the money we are putting in the pot must be lower than 12.8% of the pot size (including our bet)? Any help appreciated. Thanks in Advance!
 
Bob23bk

Bob23bk

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percentages make more sense to me, so I'm trying to work out the outs to pot odds calculations in terms of percentage.

Outs -> percentage can be estimated quickly/easily by multiplying outs X 2.1%. For your example (6 outs) I would calculate 12.6% without a chart and the .2% is honestly not going to make the difference in decision-making. (Would be more concerned with player tendencies, implied odds, etc) Just trying to save you the hassle of memorizing ANOTHER chart ;)

there's a 12.8% chance 1 of our 6 cards will appear on the turn. So does this mean, in order to make a statistically profitable call or bet here, the value of the money we are putting in the pot must be lower than 12.8% of the pot size (including our bet)?

In my understanding you are correct: the price you pay to see another card needs to be a lower % of the pot than the % that you will hit an out. This would create a +EV situation.
 
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rrph3rtbkr

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i know a method to calculate odds in term of probability percent , i hope it help u a little , its called a rule of thumb,..
firstly the probability to hit our draw on next card - here we multiply our outs with 2 .. eg the probability to hit our draw on turn - outs x 2 (9 out for flush draw x 2 =18) so our probability is 18%
secondly to know when we have a staright draw on flop whats our probability to hit our draw with 2 cards to come , outs x 4
gut shot draw has 4 out so - 4 x 4 = 16% probability to hit our draw

we can also do like
for flush we have 9 outs on flop so our winning probability is 9 x 2 =18%
lossing probability is 82%(100%-18%)
so odds can be 82/18 =4.5:1
hope this helps, if u know already ,i dont know mutch about equity value ,and equilibrium so if anyone tells then it would be great
 
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Weisssound

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It takes a minute to get your head around the ratio vs. percentage thing.

Here's why I like a ratio.

What you pay: to what you win

It's a very easy on the fly calculation in terms of paying to see a card. Pot was $8, villain bets $6, total is $14.

6:14 is my pay:win ratio. Or, 1:3.5


Now the percentage thing. If you can figure the percentage by doing the 2xOuts method it's fairly quick. 10 outs means 20% (basically).

Then you think in terms of "I win": "He wins". For every 100 hands this way, I win 20, he wins 80. That's the definition of percent. That means for every 1 I win, opponent wins 4. 1:4

So if my pay:win = 1:3.5, and my I win: He wins = 1:4, calling is a -EV play.


It takes a while to get used to. And even longer to ascertain the correct information, do it fast, in your head, and then to make the right play regarding this information.
 
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