pot odds

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resistivechief

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equity/outs

I've seen two different ways to calculate equity after the flop. Straight draw for e.g.

1. 47 unseen cards (52-5), 8 outs. 47/8 = roughly 6:1.
2. 47 unseen cards, of those 47, 8 will make the straight and 39 will not. 8/39 = roughly 5:1.

I've seen this a lot and it is confusing. Many people say a flush draw is 4:1 47 unseen cards - 9 outs. 9 cards will make the flush 38 will not. 38/9 is roughly 4:1. But then some say 5:1 with the reasoning above like in this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7KVDhAamUE).

Which is correct?
 
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D

DunningKruger

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Newer players sometimes struggle with this concept and it usually boils down to confusion over ":" and "/", which obv mean very different things. Also let's be clear that the probability of hitting your outs and your equity are not the same thing either.

1. 47 unseen cards (52-5), 8 outs. 47/8 = roughly 6:1.

47/8 does not mean 6:1. Moreover, the numerator and denominator have been switched in this example. The simplest way to go about this is to divide 8 by 47 (and then multiply by 100%). You have a ~17% chance of hitting an open ended straight draw on the turn.

2. 47 unseen cards, of those 47, 8 will make the straight and 39 will not. 8/39 = roughly 5:1.

39:8 is about 5:1 (5 to 1 odds against) when you factor down, meaning there's approximately a 1 in 6 chance of hitting... just like rolling a 6 sided die.

I've seen this a lot and it is confusing. Many people say a flush draw is 4:1 47 unseen cards - 9 outs. 9 cards will make the flush 38 will not. 38/9 is roughly 4:1. But then some say 5:1 with the reasoning above like in this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7KVDhAamUE).

Well I didn't bother clicking the vid but 4:1 odds for a flush draw with one card to come is a fairly close approximation (I might say something like 17:4... obv the exact ratio would be 38:9). The video is either garbage or being misunderstood.

Edit: lmao so curiosity got the best of me and I clicked the vid after all. It does in fact make a mistake when producing the ratio for our odds to hit. He put the flush outs on both sides of the ratio lol. The best part (other than the fact that it's Phil Hellmuth) is that right before that he talks about how it's simple grade 2 math and then right after he starts talking about his math is indisputable... and advocates folding a backdoor flush draw to the 2nd nuts in the face of a 1/3 pot bet. Do the Mario.

76a7d221d5.jpg
 
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Fknife

Fknife

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Yup, I've just finished writing a response to this but than saw Mr. DunningKruger managed to reply faster so I will just post this table; Maybe you'll find it useful:

a1c95b31a00d0281b642854980eb4054.png
 
J

joe777

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^^Very nice and applicable chart.:icon_thum
 
PokerPete

PokerPete

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1. 47 unseen cards (52-5), 8 outs. 47/8 = roughly 6:1.
47 (all cards including our outs)
--------------
8 (our outs)

dividing top and bottom by 8:

5.875
------
1

the 5.875 includes our 1 successful occurrence and all the others...
so to write it in X:Y format we need all the unsuccessful times on the left and the successful (1 time) on the right
(5.875-1):1
or 4.875:1
 
John A

John A

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If it gets confusing you can also download and use this odds and outs trainer. It's free and it should nail down any confusion you have:

http://acepokerdrills.com
 
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