Originally Posted by WiZZiM
87 Tournaments is, unfortunately nothing. Sorry to say but you cannot really draw any conclusions from this sample size. Hell, it's within the realm of "positive variance" to play 1000 games and be over your true ROI.
Format under control? When you've played thousands of them, and you are the best at your limit, it's never going to be really under control though.
Why are you moving on to differant formats? This is up to you but, i feel that knuckling down and learing one format at a time is going to be hugely beneficial. The changes between cash games, SNGs and MTT's are extreme, and beginning players simply won't be able to adjust to the differing conditions. If you are serious about making it in poker, i'd definitely suggest trying to master one particular game ( be it turbo, regular, MTT, cash, whatever).
Thanks for the response. I realize that this sample size is too small to give me my true ROI, but I've been thinking about this and it seems to me that maximizing profit should be a higher priority than getting my ROI as high as I can at a particular level.
The way I see it, my ROI is going to be a function of my skill level compared to my opponents for each format I play. So even though my ROI would be lower at a higher levels, playing $5.50 with a 10% ROI is better than playing $2.25 with a 20% ROI. Also, presumably I can learn more and become a better player by playing better opponents. Of course, this requires maintaining an adequate bankroll and dropping back if the ROI drops too much at a higher level, but dropping down a level has never been a problem for me.
As for the idea of having a format "under control", I guess I was trying to ask when you feel confidant that you're not a losing player at a particular level. If one player has a 25% ROI over 100 games and another has a 5% ROI over 200 games, neither one may be showing their "true" ROI, but I would be more confidant that the first player was a winning player than the second.
After doing some searching, I think what I may have been looking is either the "confidence interval" or the "credible interval" - something to tell me the expected range for my true ROI. I found one article that gave the following 'confidence intervals' for SNG's:
100 games: ~23%
300 games: ~40%
1000 games: ~66%
2000 games: ~82%
I assume that this could be represented by a bell curve with a larger standard deviation for fewer games, but I didn't take enough statistics to follow the math.
The point of trying other formats was to learn more and to see where the most profit could be made. I had settled on SNG's because my bankroll was very small and I felt like I had the least variance there. I think I will continue to stick with them for a while and try to build up my bankroll more before trying other things.