Poker odds.. am I right that this is wrong?

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/pot-odds/

Scroll to Figure 3 just after half way down.

Previously on the page it said to calculate pot odds percentage you divide the call size by the pot size, so in this case it would be 60/108, which is 55.5%. But it says it's 35.7%?

Am I right?

you are confusing pot odds with percentage they are different

60 to win 108 is 108/60 or 1.8/1

Odds of 1.8/1 as a percentage is 100/2.8 or 35.71%

you did it the other way 60/108 is indeed 55.55%

rhombus said:

60 to win 108 is 108/60 or 1.8/1

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Those are odds against (1.8:1).

rhombus said:

Odds of 1.8/1 as a percentage is 100/2.8 or 35.71%

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About 64.3%.

rhombus said:

you did it the other way 60/108 is indeed 55.55%

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Odds for him to 'make a hand' (break even) are 1:1.8 which is 35.7%...

Fknife said:

Those are odds against (1.8:1).

About 64.3%.


Odds for him to 'make a hand' (break even) are 1:1.8 which is 35.7%...

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WHAT?????????????

I said
60 to win 108 is 108/60 or 1.8/1 when i say 1.8/1 that is 1.8 to 1

Like odds on a dice is 5/1 or 16.6666%

You said
Those are odds against (1.8:1).

rhombus said:

Like odds on a dice is 5/1 or 16.6666%

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Well, yeah odds against are 5:1 (so you are 5:1 dog), which means you won't 'win' 5 times out of 6 trials (83%). Maybe we misunderstood each other.

Fknife said:

Well, yeah odds against are 5:1 (so you are 5:1 dog), which means you won't 'win' 5 times out of 6 trials (83%). Maybe we misunderstood each other.

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If we misundersood/confused each other imagine the opening poster LOL

JKawai said:

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/pot-odds/

Scroll to Figure 3 just after half way down.

Previously on the page it said to calculate pot odds percentage you divide the call size by the pot size, so in this case it would be 60/108, which is 55.5%. But it says it's 35.7%?

Am I right?

Click to expand...

The correct number is 35.7%. You add the amount that you call to the total pot before dividing the bet size by that figure, so it's actually 60/168 or off the top of my head 5 divided by 14.

Simple numbers make the concept easier to understand. If he bets $10 into a pot of $10 making it $10 for you to call, your pot odds are 33%... 10 divided by (20+10) or 10 divided by 30... and that's the percentage of the time you need to win the pot to break even on the call.

Also, the fold that it advocates in that example is sort of bad advice. While it's only a 32.6% chance of making the nuts or near nuts, there is still more money behind and another round of betting to come. The direct odds are already close enough that he only needs to call a bet that's less than 1/10th of the size of the pot (should you hit your hand) for you to make up the difference. He'll likely call a larger bet than that of course, although it's too bad you don't have position in the example.

The page previously says

"If we want to know the percentage then we add the bet (call amount) to the pot, to give us a total pot figure. In this example it would be: 150 + 600 = 750. Once we have this figure then we would have to perform the following formula: call amount / the total pot size. In our example this would be 150 / 750 = 0.2, or 20%."

Apply this to Figure 3

The pot size is 108 not 168 (look at the figure!)

The bet is 60.

60/108 = 0.556.

I've done exactly as he says in that quote and it's given me 55%.

EDIT: Maybe the writer added the call size twice to the pot by mistake? Because yes 60/168 is 35.7% but the pot is 48, the opp call is 60, making a pot size of 108, as he states: "The pot odds are now 1.8-to-1 (108 / 60) "

Pot odds are 108:60. You can reduce it to: 1.8:1 (those are odds against). To convert it to percentage (against): 1.8/(1.8+1) = 64.2% but you can also do 'the other way': 1/(1.8+1) = 35.7% (or 100% - 64.2%) which gives percentage for you to make a break-even call.

(converting odds to percentages: x:y => x/(x+y) [%])

Fknife said:

Pot odds are 108:60. You can reduce it to: 1.8:1 (those are odds against). To convert it to percentage (against): 1.8/(1.8+1) = 64.2% but you can also do 'the other way': 1/(1.8+1) = 35.7% (or 100% - 64.2%) which gives percentage for you to make a break-even call.

(converting odds to percentages: x:y => x/(x+y) [%])

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Thank you!

So does this mean then that the advice he previously gives in the quotation about 150/750 is incorrect?

EDIT: but it isn't.. maybe i'm missing something here

So let me see if I'm correct

Pot = 80
Bet = 50
Total pot => 130

Odds 130:50 or 130/50 = 2.6:1

Percentage for = 1/(2.6+1) = 1/3.6 = 27.7%

My draw needs odds/percentage odds of that or above to be worth calling, yeah?

JKawai said:

So does this mean then that the advice he previously gives in the quotation about 150/750 is incorrect?

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It is correct but probably a bit misleading because he assumes that the 'total pot' includes also your bet (so after you make a call). In that example pot odds are: 600:150 and converting it to percentage gives: 150/(150+600) = 20%.

JKawai said:

[..]

Percentage for = 1/(2.6+1) = 1/3.6 = 27.7%

My draw needs odds/percentage odds of that or above to be worth calling, yeah?

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That is correct.

Thank you.

the remaining difficulty for me and my non-mathematical brain is trying to visualise the correlation between pot odds and draw odds and why you should attribute either to each other.

I think perhaps I keep misunderstanding that pot/draw odds (draw odds, is that even a suitable term?) is a long-term game strategy, am I right? To ensure that theoretically speaking you at least break even? Is that even realistic? Or have I missed the point?

But if I think about it, say my stack is $200, the pot is $100, the bet is $50 so the total pot is now $150, so the pot odds are 3:1... even if I had 3:1 drawing odds, 25%... I don't think I'd risk a quarter of my stack for that!!

EDIT: or maybe I would... maybe they're pretty good odds to worth risking...

JKawai said:

the remaining difficulty for me and my non-mathematical brain is trying to visualise the correlation between pot odds and draw odds and why you should attribute either to each other.

I think perhaps I keep misunderstanding that pot/draw odds (draw odds, is that even a suitable term?) is a long-term game strategy, am I right? To ensure that theoretically speaking you at least break even? Is that even realistic? Or have I missed the point?
[..]

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Pot odds just tell you how often you have to be 'right' to make a certain play. Drawing to a flush/straight is just an example, you could also use them when bluffing, bluffcatching, calling with 2 overs (6 outs) or designing optimal 3betting ranges.

If you are always 'right' the exact percentage of times given your pot odds, you are theoretically breaking even over the long run. Thats why you ideally want to be 'right more often' to turn a profit -> thats why you hear all the time that: draw % > pot odds %.

JKawai said:

The page previously says

"If we want to know the percentage then we add the bet (call amount) to the pot, to give us a total pot figure. In this example it would be: 150 + 600 = 750. Once we have this figure then we would have to perform the following formula: call amount / the total pot size. In our example this would be 150 / 750 = 0.2, or 20%."

Click to expand...

JKawai said:

The pot size is 108 not 168 (look at the figure!)

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I did in fact look at the figure. Look at the bolded. It's not exactly rocket science.

That (entirely correct) explanation you quoted refers to an instance where the pot was 450 and the other player bet 150 into it. How did you think the author came up with the figure of 750 you pasted?? When the player puts 150 into the pot, there is now 600 chips in the middle. If you call that bet (this is where the bolded part of your explanation quoted for me comes in), the pot would become 750.

When using ratios, you put the amount of chips currently in the middle on one side and the amount you need to call on the other. When using percentages, the difference is that you divide the size of the bet you're faced with by the total size of the pot after you call, which you'd add both sides of the ratio together to get.

Fknife said:

Pot odds just tell you how often you have to be 'right' to make a certain play. Drawing to a flush/straight is just an example, you could also use them when bluffing, bluffcatching, calling with 2 overs (6 outs) or designing optimal 3betting ranges.

If you are always 'right' the exact percentage of times given your pot odds, you are theoretically breaking even over the long run. Thats why you ideally want to be 'right more often' to turn a profit -> thats why you hear all the time that: draw % > pot odds %.

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Thanks.playing out different scenarios in my head it does make perfect sense now. E.g. 4:1..

Game 1: win 40
Game 2: lose 10 = 30
Game 3: lose 10 = 20
Game 4: lose 10 = 10
Game 5: lose 10 = 0 = break even

Ergo your point about having better drawing odds than pot odds.

Unfortunately i have no idea what the emboldened part means or how you could apply the method to such... Particularly thrown at 'designing optimal 3betting ranges'!

DunningKruger said:

I did in fact look at the figure. Look at the bolded. It's not exactly rocket science.

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Don't get so defensive. Calm down.

You're welcome.

JKawai said:

Unfortunately i have no idea what the emboldened part means or how you could apply the method to such... Particularly thrown at 'designing optimal 3betting ranges'!

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Dont worry, you'll get there. For now, just focus on the basics.

I've just had a thought though.

It's all well and good knowing your drawing odds, but more importantly what about your winning odds? Isn't this a massive factor that will affect bet size?

Is this of any use... at all... :

http://www.pokerprobability.net/calculator/texas-holdem.html

Well, when drawing your drawing odds become your winning odds because you assume than you will win the hand if you hit one of your outs.

Fknife said:

Well, when drawing your drawing odds become your winning odds because you assume than you will win the hand if you hit one of your outs.

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Yes so really odds are only usable post flop. Which I guess is why the odds chart I have in front of me starts with flop to turn and not preflop to flop! Was thinking about this and yeah, I suppose preflop it's just impossible to calculate anything

I am glad I refuse to use a HUD

JKawai said:

Yes so really odds are only usable post flop. Which I guess is why the odds chart I have in front of me starts with flop to turn and not preflop to flop!

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Thats a bit too general what you are saying. You are only refering to your odds of catching one of your outs and you threat them as your winning odds (relative hand strength) but dont forget that Holdem starting hands are not 'equal' (absolute hand strength). So for example in preflop all-in 'matches': AA is 4:1 favourite against any pair, any pair is 4.9:1 favourite against two undercards but only 1.2:1 favourite against two overcards etc etc.

JKawai said:

I suppose preflop it's just impossible to calculate anything

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It is possible but its a bit more complicated (if you meant all that GTO related stuff).