Poker Math!!! HELP!!

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Erdnase

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hey all I wasnt sure if this should go in this board of the stratergy board, so please forgive me if it is wrong.
I feel that I have a good pre-flop stratergy, but I am having a bit of trouble on the flop. Before I become a straergy expert I would like to play the game mathmatically correct. Right here it goes, sorry of it is a long post.
If I flop a monster hand I bet big. If I flop a drawing hand I use out odds to tell if seeing the next card is correct. With just the river to come if I am drawing to a monster I see if implied odds make a call worthwhile. With no more cards to come I use win odds to see if i should call ( should i be using pot odds here to?). I am having trouble with EV. For example with just the river to come, I have a mediocre hand(planning to win without improving), with a non dangerous board, incorrect out odds - with poor outs anyway. There is $130 in the pot and it is a $10 call to me. My calculator states I have a 2.2:1 to win. So I figure that I will lose $10 2.2 time for a total loss of $22, but I will win $130 once for a net profit of $108. So I decide to call.
Is this only correct if I win on the turn and dont have to see the river? If so what factors should I use to decide my play.

All help grealty appreicated! And have a good game.
Erdnase
 
A

aznman08

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math only goes so far. you also need to consider other factors including any reads you have on your opponents, any other players in the hand

I use math alot when it comes to razz and stud because of the amount of cards on the board
 
cardplayer52

cardplayer52

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what i do is try to put my opponant on a range of hands. as we get closer to the river that range gets smaller. now having a good idea of the range of hands i'm up against i will estimate the likelyhood i will win the hand and see what odds the pot offers me. then i will deside if i should play or not. what you want to do is make sure the pot odds are better than your chance of making your hand. what i do is i use pokerstove(dowload it free at pokerstove.com) when i get a hand i got a question on i go back plug in the numbers. the more you do this the more you will just know when it comes up agian in a game.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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I am having trouble with EV. For example with just the river to come, I have a mediocre hand(planning to win without improving), with a non dangerous board, incorrect out odds - with poor outs anyway. There is $130 in the pot and it is a $10 call to me. My calculator states I have a 2.2:1 to win. So I figure that I will lose $10 2.2 time for a total loss of $22, but I will win $130 once for a net profit of $108. So I decide to call.
Is this only correct if I win on the turn and dont have to see the river? If so what factors should I use to decide my play.

All help grealty appreicated! And have a good game.
Erdnase

Not sure I understand what your saying, so if you could post a hand example it may be a little clearer. What type of calculator is telling you you have 2.2:1 odds with one card to come with no outs etc, it's a little confusing sorry.

Anyways, if you think you are 2:1 that your good and you're getting 13:1 pot odds, it's a no brainer call. Sorry but I'm a ickle confused :eek:
 
E

Erdnase

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Sorry I will try and be a little clearer, sorry for the example given, I did not have hand history, I will try and get one and post in future.
First I am using holdem indicator, which state the win odds at each stage of the hand. Basically, when it states that its 2.2:1 to win when on the turn and I have a medioce hand, E.g pocket jacks, which hasnst improved - but the board doesnt look too dangerous, bt again I have incorrect odds for any drawing hand (the outs I do have will not make a much better hand) . I am unsure weather to call or fold. So if figure that I have a 2.2:1 chance to win at the point of the game I figure that it is a profitable call (even if there is a miracle card on the river that out draws me). So what im trying to ask is the math at this point only correct. Or how I tell weather I should call is correct or not.
Also am I using the other math in the correct situations?
In general if my pots odd or win odds are smaller than my pot odds. I should call??
I hope thats a bit clear :confused:

Thanks for the help
 
J

jumping jack flash

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still not any clearer ! ,maths wont help you decide every situation! if you feel your ahead you bet for value ,if you are drawing then look at your odds! ,with a name like erdnase you should be giving yourself whatever cards you want anyway!
sometimes you make a call against odds (if you know your opponent well) the maths strategy section on here is very good,go over it again. but its simple for me as when i feel im ahead i,ll bet ,but on the flipside sometimes when im sure im behind (if i know my opponent !!) ill consider betting out to get him off the pot, maths is a huge part of poker but so is phsychology !! simply put, not every play can be correctly decided on maths sometimes you,ll make a leap of faith (some players more than others!)
these calculaters are there to help you make informed descisions not decide for you . probably not what you wanted to hear just an opinion but good luck
p.s as jagsti said 13/1 odds when you feel your best is a complete no brainer .
 
Sean Pilgrim

Sean Pilgrim

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i used tournament indicator... basically just told me everything i already knew... i think hold em indicator and the tournament indicator are rip offs
 
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jokerjay311

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im not the best with ev and all that just yet, but with that big of a pot and only 10 dollars to call after river id say calling is the right play unless youre stuck on ace high. and also, like aznman said, math can only do so much for you. i totally agree with what he said, much more important to have a good read on your opponent.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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Sorry I will try and be a little clearer, sorry for the example given, I did not have hand history, I will try and get one and post in future.
First I am using holdem indicator, which state the win odds at each stage of the hand. Basically, when it states that its 2.2:1 to win when on the turn and I have a medioce hand, E.g pocket jacks, which hasnst improved - but the board doesnt look too dangerous, bt again I have incorrect odds for any drawing hand (the outs I do have will not make a much better hand) . I am unsure weather to call or fold. So if figure that I have a 2.2:1 chance to win at the point of the game I figure that it is a profitable call (even if there is a miracle card on the river that out draws me). So what im trying to ask is the math at this point only correct. Or how I tell weather I should call is correct or not.
Also am I using the other math in the correct situations?
In general if my pots odd or win odds are smaller than my pot odds. I should call??
I hope thats a bit clear :confused:

Thanks for the help

I'm sorry but I have no idea what you are asking.

Try and post a hand like this (I stole this one from the HH section)
Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $57.15 (114.3 bb)
SB: $47.60 (95.2 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $28.15 (56.3 bb)
MP1: $24.55 (49.1 bb)
MP2: $55.20 (110.4 bb)
MP3: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K A
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) K 9 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $7, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($17.25) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

River: ($31.25) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10

Results:[spoil] $51.25 pot ($2.45 rake)
BB showed Q K (two pairs, Kings and Fours) and lost (-$25.50 net)
Hero showed K A (two pairs, Kings and Fours) and won $48.80 ($23.30 net)

That way we will all be on the same wavelength.
 
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