J
JRNorris95
Rock Star
Silver Level
You had a 59.49% chance of winning against that hand preflop. After the flop your odds increased to 74.62%. You still made a good call as it was an ev+ potential roi, but you may have benefited from playing a little different depending on the range of your opponent.
There are a few things to consider when evaluating how to play in this scenario. Your opponent would likely have the following (ranked from least likely to most likely):
A5, the chances of your opponent having this is very low... however it cannot be completely ruled out. There is no real way to best play against this hand as he already has a made hand. They would likely try and trap you rather than make any raises after the flop. If they do raise, they would of at least waited for the turn or river, hoping that you would hit something. Because your opponent raised on the flop, he probably does not have this hand.
Pocket Pair, your opponent would likely be trying to get as much chips in as possible before the turn and you will see fewer calls on the turn/river. If you put your opponent on a hand like this then you want to commit as many chips before the turn. If the opponent had a hand like this however, he would of likely 3-bet post flop.
5x, In which case they would be trying to scare you off the pot before the turn. This is likely the only time to increase the pot as you wouldnt see as many calls after any turn/river. You would want to commit as many chips as you can before the turn. The player would have to be very loose to be gambling on 5x hands.
Gutshot, the player might raise after the flop, but likely wouldn't call a reraise. This isn't really a hand that should concern you much. If you put the player on a hand in this range, you should at least be min reraising as it will usually take down the pot before giving your opponent the chance to hit or at least rep a straight on any 234 turn/river. The player would have to be pretty loose to be chasing this hand, and you wouldnt see this often from tight players.
Flush Draw, this is a hand that you are favored against but it still should scare you. If you think this is potentially what your opponent has, you won't want to go all in on the flop, as waiting till the turn will double your odds of winning. There would be 8 or 9 outs for your opponent to hit a flush. This would mean there is a 40.45% chance he hits it (if one of his spades is the ten) and 35.9% chance if he does not have the ten of spades *as hitting it would give you the full house*. Your chances increase significantly if you wait to raise after the turn. Assuming a spade doesn't hit, the odds of your opponent hitting a flush draw drop significantly to 20.45% and 18.18% ( again depending if he has the ten). If a spade comes on the turn you might consider check/folding in order to preserve your stack for more favorable odds. You would only be raising if you want to rep a flush and try and steal the pot (not favorable). You might consider calling a small raise on a spade turn as your opponent may be bluffing and give up, or you might hit one of your 10 outs for a full house/quads (roughly 20% odds)
Ax, In which case you would be worried about losing to a higher kicker. If the player is a really tight player, you may run in to trouble against ak, aq, or aj. If the player is tight and the stakes are high, you may have benefited from playing a little more conservatively with your chips. You still have a great shot at winning over most Ax, but it is nice to save some chips in case they have a higher kicker. A raise in this case would be appropriate, but not an allin (unless you don't mind having to rebuy).
There are a few things to consider when evaluating how to play in this scenario. Your opponent would likely have the following (ranked from least likely to most likely):
A5, the chances of your opponent having this is very low... however it cannot be completely ruled out. There is no real way to best play against this hand as he already has a made hand. They would likely try and trap you rather than make any raises after the flop. If they do raise, they would of at least waited for the turn or river, hoping that you would hit something. Because your opponent raised on the flop, he probably does not have this hand.
Pocket Pair, your opponent would likely be trying to get as much chips in as possible before the turn and you will see fewer calls on the turn/river. If you put your opponent on a hand like this then you want to commit as many chips before the turn. If the opponent had a hand like this however, he would of likely 3-bet post flop.
5x, In which case they would be trying to scare you off the pot before the turn. This is likely the only time to increase the pot as you wouldnt see as many calls after any turn/river. You would want to commit as many chips as you can before the turn. The player would have to be very loose to be gambling on 5x hands.
Gutshot, the player might raise after the flop, but likely wouldn't call a reraise. This isn't really a hand that should concern you much. If you put the player on a hand in this range, you should at least be min reraising as it will usually take down the pot before giving your opponent the chance to hit or at least rep a straight on any 234 turn/river. The player would have to be pretty loose to be chasing this hand, and you wouldnt see this often from tight players.
Flush Draw, this is a hand that you are favored against but it still should scare you. If you think this is potentially what your opponent has, you won't want to go all in on the flop, as waiting till the turn will double your odds of winning. There would be 8 or 9 outs for your opponent to hit a flush. This would mean there is a 40.45% chance he hits it (if one of his spades is the ten) and 35.9% chance if he does not have the ten of spades *as hitting it would give you the full house*. Your chances increase significantly if you wait to raise after the turn. Assuming a spade doesn't hit, the odds of your opponent hitting a flush draw drop significantly to 20.45% and 18.18% ( again depending if he has the ten). If a spade comes on the turn you might consider check/folding in order to preserve your stack for more favorable odds. You would only be raising if you want to rep a flush and try and steal the pot (not favorable). You might consider calling a small raise on a spade turn as your opponent may be bluffing and give up, or you might hit one of your 10 outs for a full house/quads (roughly 20% odds)
Ax, In which case you would be worried about losing to a higher kicker. If the player is a really tight player, you may run in to trouble against ak, aq, or aj. If the player is tight and the stakes are high, you may have benefited from playing a little more conservatively with your chips. You still have a great shot at winning over most Ax, but it is nice to save some chips in case they have a higher kicker. A raise in this case would be appropriate, but not an allin (unless you don't mind having to rebuy).
Last edited:
rsimms
Rock Star
Silver Level
Jam it in there. You more than likely have the best hand right now, I would be worried about the flush draw on the board. When there is a pair on the flop, if the board is as wet as this board with a gut shot straight and flush draw, there is a good chance that your opponent is drawing. They have a lot of outs and 2 cards to hit but 3 aces with a 10 is too good to throw away. The larger your bet, the worse price you will give your opponent to draw. If your opponent had an Ace with a larger kicker than a 10, there is a good chance you would have 3bet, but very unlikely he has an Ace, as you already have one. Also if he had a full house already, he would probably check it over to let you bet or for you to catch up. Donk betting at a scary board like this could also be a way of scaring you away.
