This is a discussion on Pocket pair vs two overcards odds within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Hi everyone, It might just being missing something, so please forgive me if I seem stupid asking this question. Everywhere you go you hear that eg. 66 


#1




Pocket pair vs two overcards odds
Hi everyone,
It might just being missing something, so please forgive me if I seem stupid asking this question. Everywhere you go you hear that eg. 66 vs AK is a coinflip situation, or close. Like 55% vs 45%. But when holding two cards you have 7 outs  roughly that give you a 32% chance of atleast 1 of your cards making a pair. That's what i don't get. 66 is beating AK unless it hits, so why is it a coinflip situation? The straight possibilities that AK has can't make up for those 13%. Ofcourse it weighs a little up, but then the probabillity of 66 making a set must drag something down again since you have 12.5% chance to hit your set which would kill AK unless it hits the straight or hits a full house which is extremely unlikely. Any kind of explanation is appreciated Thank you 
#2




Alex, I asked myself that question too when I started playing.
A very helpful site for odds is Wizard of Odds: http://wizardofodds.com/games/texasholdem/ If you look at the headsup odds of hands, you'll see the coin flip again: http://wizardofodds.com/games/texasholdem/2playergame/ These types of tables are created with the math explained on the wikipedia page and the numbers are confirmed with software that runs millions of hands and comes up with the same percentages for these types of tables. I've used Poker Academy (http://www.pokeracademy.com/) to look at hand combos. It runs 50,000 hands to several million and confirms the results of the Wizard of Odds (http://wizardofodds.com/games/texasholdem/) tables or hand calculators (http://wizardofodds.com/games/texasholdem/calculator/). Hope that helps a bit. 
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If the overcards don't make a pair on the flop and have no draws, now they are significantly behind (~27% to win) and it gets worse if the turn is a blank. Another scenario is when the overcards flop a flush draw, then they are actually slightly ahead of the pocket pair postflop with two cards to come. 
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66 vs AK is better to be played only coinflip if you miss the flop 66 is awful hand even when flop is 9 10 2 so it is easy fold, so 66 is not good hand it is good when you hit set on flop, all other ways you are behind against every hand only coinflip 6's pair is little favourite vs 2 over cards.

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I think because if it were heads up your chance of hitting your outs would be about (6/48) *5 because of the 5 community cards. That would equal to a 0.625 probability.
This is obviously very oversimplified because there is also the possibility that your opponent makes a set and also you have to take into account the other cards folded if you have several players. So that would decrease the probability below 0.625. Figuring out the probability is not as simple as counting the outs, which is why they usually get the percentages by running the hands millions of times. 