Pleas help dissect this nhle hand

H

Hit_it&enjoy

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I played this Btn vs BB hand not too long ago, we're both pretty laggy players (no stats cuz I've yet to buy copilot).

Btn raises pot 3.5x and BB calls: AQ

Flop came: Qd7d9c, BB checks and Btn cbet 3/4 pot, BB calls

Turn came: 10h, BB bets out and Btn raises/jams, BB FOLDS

Now the caveat here is that I was the Btn with AdJd and the BB whined bout folding AQ wanting to know what I had.

For arguments sake let's say he did have AQ, it's 50/50 at best against my range. Would checking/calling 2 streets and possibly calling a blank river the standard.

In the heat of the moment I had difficult time a establishing a clear range for both of us, It was more like a hope and a prayer that he would believe I had a set, 2 pair or straight protecting flush draw.

Any comments or advice would be much appreciated especially on thought process I've failed to discuss or realize.
 
whowantsahighfive

whowantsahighfive

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I probably would have slowed down after he check-called the bet on the flop.

What stage in the tournament was this? Stack sizes?
 
H

Hit_it&enjoy

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10nl-6max, I had $14 and he had $9 something.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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It isn't 50/50. You have 9 flush outs plus 3 8's and 3 K's for 15 outs out of 46 cards remaining, 15/46 = 33ish%.
 
H

Hit_it&enjoy

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Sorry to confuse, but I plugged in what I thought his range AQ,77-AA,JTs vs my all-in range KJ,QQ,77-AA,97,QT,A*d,T9,JTs. These hands are obviously more precise than while playing but my general feeling was 50/50 for BB to call.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Sorry to confuse, but I plugged in what I thought his range AQ,77-AA,JTs vs my all-in range KJ,QQ,77-AA,97,QT,A*d,T9,JTs. These hands are obviously more precise than while playing but my general feeling was 50/50 for BB to call.

OK, we're looking at our fold equity when we shove - given his range, we think he's 50/50 to fold to the shove, a lot of the hands in his range can't call a shove cuz the shove reps a monster, right?

I don't mind the thought process, though I think we're being a little optimistic on what he'll fold if you guys have history, and if you've pulled a similar play in the past. It's a high variance play, but if you can find the right situations, it makes sense. And even if he doesn't fold this time, we do have nut outs, so it makes sense to me.
 
H

Hit_it&enjoy

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Sort of ya, the "value" of his range of his hands I thought was fifty-fifty, but his or do you say my fold equity? was higher in my mind.

Agreed it's high variance, btw do you live in Pinas and how's the live poker there? I grew up in canada but born there.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Mabuhay, welcome to CC!

I live in Lapulapu City, but was born in Chicago - US citizen of Irish/Korean heritage (long story).
 
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TopDonk

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What were eff stacks at start of hand?

If he folds, do you know for sure he has AQ, as he may just be making out he made a big fold.

Also I would cbet less here like 2/3 of the pot at most seems good here. Depending on his turn bet size and eff stacks I think flatting might be bet here as we likely have a bunch of outs - again this depends on eff stacks and turn bet sizing.

Agains some villains this may also be a fold as he has called pre (playing rest of hand OOP) then c/c large c bet and leads the turn, he has showed a lot of strength.

Anyway interesting hand OP stacks and bet sizes would be helpfull here also what stakes we at could affect your play here
 
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