Playing Unpredictably (Day 22 Course Discussion)

Originally Posted by Polytarp

This will be a money maker/leak stopper if I can master the points in this video, especially the bluff catching. When playing snooker, I would look at the possibilities of making my best shot as well as balancing the value of creating the worst shot for my opponent and this goes to the offense/defense "blocker" considerations. Some good (and older) poker players I knew were also champion snooker players.
In the example game w/ 2AK with you holding the A8, you hit the last card which gave you the win. If I were the donk bettor I would probably have entered here only with suited cards or unsuited mid-high connectors as my worst cards. In today's PStars spin free roll, I was literally seeing "stars" because of one player who kept hitting his out on the river, counterfeiting me or the board made the best hand despite my leading all the way. This made me wonder why the player was in these hands to begin with.. I made it into the "cash" only because I tempered my aggressive (assertive?) play by checking more and was able to rebuild my decimated stack several times with some chancy all-ins and bluffs.
The only practice poker software I ever used was Wilson Software "Side-Winder Sid" and they have been out of business for years. Is there a simulator and/or game playing software that can highlight bluff making/catching situations? Years ago (again) I would read the papers published by the University of Alberta Poker Research Group (Darse Billings..etc..). They have since changed their name and evolved but along these lines is there affordable poker AI software that can be played against and can learn? [Pluribus/Libratus...?]

Originally Posted by Collin Moshman

Tracking software can still be useful against unpredictable opponents, for example in knowing that they play a lot of hands, but it only goes so far just like you're saying.

Originally Posted by cheeeer

Can we know more details? Um, yeah I thought maybe to analyze size of bets.

Originally Posted by topcatbrazil

Perhaps they could put sometime between the moment they give the quiz and the moment they give the answer. That way people could see if they got it quickly enough.

Originally Posted by Luvart

Finished Days #21+22.

The Day #22 is one of the most interesting chapters of this course.

I liked the way the concept of unpredictability was explained, and I studied again the concept of "light 3betting". At the micros a solid ABC strategy, coupled with good bankroll management and emotional control is enough to, at least, not being a breakeven poker player.

From there begins the experiment and the tricky play.

I takes some practice too.

Tomorrow with Day #23.

Originally Posted by Polytarp

This will be a money maker/leak stopper if I can master the points in this video, especially the bluff catching. When playing snooker, I would look at the possibilities of making my best shot as well as balancing the value of creating the worst shot for my opponent and this goes to the offense/defense "blocker" considerations. Some good (and older) poker players I knew were also champion snooker players.
In the example game w/ 2AK with you holding the A8, you hit the last card which gave you the win. If I were the donk bettor I would probably have entered here only with suited cards or unsuited mid-high connectors as my worst cards. In today's PStars spin free roll, I was literally seeing "stars" because of one player who kept hitting his out on the river, counterfeiting me or the board made the best hand despite my leading all the way. This made me wonder why the player was in these hands to begin with.. I made it into the "cash" only because I tempered my aggressive (assertive?) play by checking more and was able to rebuild my decimated stack several times with some chancy all-ins and bluffs.
The only practice poker software I ever used was Wilson Software "Side-Winder Sid" and they have been out of business for years. Is there a simulator and/or game playing software that can highlight bluff making/catching situations? Years ago (again) I would read the papers published by the University of Alberta Poker Research Group (Darse Billings..etc..). They have since changed their name and evolved but along these lines is there affordable poker AI software that can be played against and can learn? [Pluribus/Libratus...?]

Originally Posted by Debi

Nice analogy on the snooker - I play pool too. As a matter of fact I had a fun night playing with Collin, Katie and a few friends one time years ago!

Originally Posted by redboy23

Hi CCers,

I agree with the concept of being unpredictable at the table. It is important to note that a seemingly normal play can be unpredictable as well, in a sense that the cards you are holding is disguised in the range and position.

Response to video question:


Not knowing anything about the opponent is never a good spot to get crafty.

Looking at the position, I would say no to it being a good spot to 3-bet since you are first to act on each subsequent round of betting. Q4o not my cup of tea here.

If I had to choose between Q8o and J9 suited for a light C-bet, I would choose Q8 to to do it and limp with J9 suited since it has good draws and I may want to control the pot a little.

A little out of my comfort zone here and look forward to the discussion.

Originally Posted by Bozovicdj

I feel there should have been more talk on the frequency of unpredictable plays. Make them too often and they become predictable = exploitable.

A beginner would have a hard time finding that silver lining and just the right amount of hands to get frisky with.

Also, there should be more mention as to when NOT to do it. I can think of numerous MTT spots where all you stated applies, but is still not a moment where we should re-raise small from SB with 83s

Originally Posted by Andrew Popov

Interesting topic. Probably at low limits, as well as in tournaments where there are a lot of random players and no one has statistics on opponents - unexpected decisions can be confusing. A good bluff to steal widely.

But in a regular game, one should rather adhere to a clearer strategy, allowing oneself to deviate only occasionally, for in a suitable position and with an interesting hand in the later streets.

Originally Posted by Tux97

This is a fascinating subject to learn! I feel this is the chapter of the book where I start learning about more advanced topics in poker so thank you for making it so accessible.

In situations like hand 22-1, the big risk of not shoving or betting bigger is the possibility of villain making a stronger hand on later streets but I guess that's just part of the game! Am I correct in understanding that what you meant in the analysis of this hand that sometimes we should indeed shove with AA or 22 to keep villain guessing?

I have a question about the hypothetical situation you mentioned around 7:20 in the video Collin. You said a hand like A9o would not be an ideal candidate for a light 3-bet, but in the book ATo is regarded as such in hand 22-2. Is that because hero is defending the BB in the video?

Also, can limping be added to our 'arsenal' of unpredictable play or should we just adhere to what we learned earlier in the course and almost always bet/raise/fold unless we are defending the blinds or set mining?

Thanks again!

Originally Posted by Collin Moshman

Glad you enjoyed this Day of the course!

I would shove 22 here against almost any opponent. With AA, I would shove against a good player to keep him guessing, exactly like you're saying -- the problem is that a small 3-bet would likely look too strong because I'd only be making that play with monster hands. So it's better to be unpredictable against someone who understands that a small 3-bet here represents a lot of strength.

A9o 3-bet: As a general rule, if you have a hand that is more than strong enough to call a raise, but you wouldn't want your opponent to 4-bet you, then you shouldn't make a light 3-bet. With that A9o, it's not quite strong enough to continue facing a 4-bet against most opponents, but also too strong to want to fold. So it all comes down to the specific for which hands you pick. A9o might make a great light 3-bet if you can easily fold it facing a 4-bet, but blind-vs-blind it's too strong to normally use in that way.

Limping. There are definitely good players who incorporate open-limping (when first in) into their strategy from different positions, but I recommend only doing it from the small blind. Stay aggressive and give yourself a chance to win the pot pre-flop

Great questions and I hope this helps!

Originally Posted by johnnylawford

I find this is most important blind vs blind. You can make a lot of profit by having a mixed limping range where your opponent will raise/jam over your small blind limps late in a tournament with weak hands if they think a limp always means weakness.

Originally Posted by johnnylawford

I find this is most important blind vs blind. You can make a lot of profit by having a mixed limping range where your opponent will raise/jam over your small blind limps late in a tournament with weak hands if they think a limp always means weakness.

Originally Posted by Collin Moshman

Definitely, in blind battles vs regs you need to be unpredictable with your SB open-limping range. Strong but playable hands like ATs can make great ones to limp into regs.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

If I limp from small blind, I typically do it with my entire range, because this is easy and not exploitable. The alternative is to put the strongest hands like JJ+ and AK into your limping range and jam less playable hands like rag aces and small pairs as explained in the course.

I have noticed a tendency among regs on 888 Poker to use very large raise sizes against small blind limps. 4BB, 5BB or even 6BB is common. Personally I dont really get the rationale behind this, because big blind has position, so he dont need to give small blind such bad odds to generate folds.

If the player to my left does this, or if he raise all my limps, then my next limp will be a trap, and there BOOM I am with a limp-reraise. This also tend to shut down that kind of action