Outs and Odds

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Running Nose II

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It is all too easy to get carried away when you have the possibility of a flush or a straight draw. The odds of each are 4/1 and 5/1 (rounded) respectively. Even with 18 outs, which is fairly common, the odds are 1.6/1. Remember that these are odds AGAINST you winning, so tread carefully, it is not always a given win situation.
 
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Running Nose II

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YUP, it would amaze you.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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I cannot tell you the last time I had 18 clean outs.

I doubt it's as common as you think.

^ this. A flush draw plus an OESD is only 15. I'd have to stop and think what situation would even result in 18 outs... which pretty much proves the point.

As for the original post, if the point is that draws aren't sure things then yes, absolutely I agree. In other news, the sky is blue. Quoting odds on their own isn't the whole story though, you have to assess them against the pot odds you're being laid to work out whether a call is +EV or not.
 
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Running Nose II

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Sorry, typo ennor on the numerical keypad, should have been i5.
 
Amanda A

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I think you are the favorite at 15 or above outs after the flop if you can see both the turn and the river. 47 unseen cards. You have 15/ 47 plus 15/46 which is about a 63% to win. Am I wrong? In this case a shove might be in order.
 
Amanda A

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I went away and thought about this and I'm doing something wrong. You should be about a 53% favorite if you have 15 outs and can see the turn and river. What am I doing wrong? Ahh... have to go do some research.
 
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CHAVIKI

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Personally if i don't have the most possible winning cards, wouldn't keep playing or pay "to see if I get the card I need"
 
taurusix

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^ this. A flush draw plus an OESD is only 15. I'd have to stop and think what situation would even result in 18 outs... which pretty much proves the point.

As for the original post, if the point is that draws aren't sure things then yes, absolutely I agree. In other news, the sky is blue. Quoting odds on their own isn't the whole story though, you have to assess them against the pot odds you're being laid to work out whether a call is +EV or not.
in addition, one overcard gives 18, two overcards give us 21 outs (being maximum of outs possible, I guess)
Usually, the case with JTs, JQs etc.
 
taurusix

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Speaking about the theory of calculating outs and odds, which was definitely studied, modelled and verified by super math experts worldwide, just want to add my 2 cents.
Some of you may also now and then come across the following finding. I have no issues with correct calculation of outs in pure HU games (where only 2 players involved). But, in full ring / 9-max tables, why shouldn't we consider the number of cards dealt to the remaining players? In case of default scenario with 2 players in game and the rest folding, we have already 16 cards (incl. Villain's hand) out of the deck. Calculation of outs usually starts after the flop, leaving 47 cards by default to count our outs. So, in fact the remaining deck is smaller now by one third (16/47) and results in 31 hand left to improve our draws. Logically and based on simple theory of probability, the number of outs reduces roughly three times. So, for our possible flush draw we are likely to have 6 outs now. I really doubt that those non-active cards do not include at least 2 of our possible outs. Perhaps, I missed that part but I've never read about considering this factor in articles related to odds calculation.
Bottom-line: are we overvaluing our "actual" draws or is it a nailed and accurate theory proven by years?
So, what is your opinion or am i making things too complicated? [emoji4] [emoji4]
 
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marakhovskii

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caution when playing with incomplete information gives chances to both players, and sometimes you do not need to do anything, how to get to the river and make a fold:(
 
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mojorising

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why shouldn't we consider the number of cards dealt to the remaining players?

The cards remaining in the deck plus the cards already dealt to other players represent the unseen cards.

From a pure probability perspective it does not matter that some unseen cards are dealt to other players and some are still in the deck when calculating outs odds.

Imagine that you are waiting for an ace to make a straight after the flop and all the cards except for 4 have been dealt to other players.

Now imagine that you are waiting for an ace to make a straight and you are heads up from the start so there are still 45 cards in the deck.

Is an ace on the turn more likely in scenario 1 or scenario 2?

The answer is that the Ace is equally likely in both scenarios.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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The cards remaining in the deck plus the cards already dealt to other players represent the unseen cards.

From a pure probability perspective it does not matter that some unseen cards are dealt to other players and some are still in the deck when calculating outs odds.

Imagine that you are waiting for an ace to make a straight after the flop and all the cards except for 4 have been dealt to other players.

Now imagine that you are waiting for an ace to make a straight and you are heads up from the start so there are still 45 cards in the deck.

Is an ace on the turn more likely in scenario 1 or scenario 2?

The answer is that the Ace is equally likely in both scenarios.

Yes, exactly. For probability, there are only two categories of cards, seen (in your hand or on the board), or unseen.

In live poker sometimes a card flips over by mistake. This is called an "exposed" or "dead" card.
If you have AK, for example, and an A accidentally is exposed when dealing pre-flop, you need to take into account that now there are only two cards in the "unseen" category that can give you a pair of aces on the flop. Maybe you shouldn't call a big pre-flop 3-bet in this case.
 
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