'Outs' in Draw ?
I'm sitting here playing the casino games. Video Poker in particular which is 5 card draw, JJ or better to get paid. Single upfront bet prevents nit play.
Trying to figure 'outs' is way different when there is a minimum of JJ or better to pay. When calling a card a paying card I mean it is JQKA and will pay if paired. Also it should be noted that these outs are secure, if you hit an out, you get paid. Not like ify outs which will improve your hand to the probable (but not certain) winning hand.
For instance, we all know to keep a paying pair and seek trips, but suppose we get a hand like;
Rainbow 88AKJ. Do we muck the AKJ and seek the trip 8's or do we muck the 88 and seek the paying pair?
If we keep the 88 (mucking AKJ) seeking to improve to the money I figure we get 15 outs.
If we muck the 8's seek to pair the paying possibilities (AKJ) we get at least 18 outs, plus some very fuzzy outs on the last drawn cards if the first of the 2 drawn cards is a Q or T.
If we keep the 88 and 1 of the 3 paying cards hoping for 2 pair we get 13 outs. In video poker it really won't matter which of the paying cards we keep.
If we keep 88AK, then we are getting 10 outs.
So it looks like keeping 3 paying (AKJ) cards and mucking the 88 is the best play.
Am I right?
Another fuzzy thought is that the average winning hand in draw will be something like a pair of 8's. So the 99,TT hands would be the rake the machine operator (at a casino) would make. He could indeed provide a completely honest machine and those 2 hands would make him profit.
Keep in mind this is draw, with no additional betting because it is a video game, so the effects don't transfer directly to real draw.