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Running Nose II

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I recently spent some time searching sites for a definitive answer to what is the highest number of outs possible in Hold'em. The answers I found were eye opening, ranging from 22 to an unbelievable 28. There was some imaginative counting, a lot of double counting, and a few not including the suited 2 in their calculations. One managed to get six community cards available.
The definition of outs 'are the unseen cards that will improve or complete your hand to make it the WINNING hand'.
We are talking winning hands in this calculation, not chopped.
Anyway I may not be the sharpest tool in the box, but here's my input.

Give Rank Badyin say 2 of clubs 2 of spades.
My hole cards are K of hearts, J of hearts (hey I'm the good guy)
Flop goes down Q of hearts, 10 of hearts, 7 of clubs (as it would).
Calculation:-
9 flush draws (He makes a set with 2H, loses to my flush, same
with 7H with two pairs)
3 low straight draws.
3 high straight draws.
3 Kings in the other suits.
3 Jacks in the other suits.
Total = 21.

Queens or Tens turning up are as much use as an ash-tray on a motorbike, and no help to my hand

Now if anybody can increase beyond 21, or show my flawed thinking, I'll be happy to finally know the number.
 
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freestocks

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Royal draw. Great hand...and deuces would be weak.
 
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seventhsense

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If you turn a 7 then you add another 6 outs with the double paired board option that counterfeit the underpair.

So that is 27 total.
 
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Running Nose II

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seventhsense - can you run that past me again , I seemed to have missed it. If a 7 is turned I have one pair, but Badyin has two pairs 7s and 2s
 
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I recently spent some time searching sites for a definitive answer to what is the highest number of outs possible in Hold'em. The answers I found were eye opening, ranging from 22 to an unbelievable 28. There was some imaginative counting, a lot of double counting, and a few not including the suited 2 in their calculations. One managed to get six community cards available.
The definition of outs 'are the unseen cards that will improve or complete your hand to make it the WINNING hand'.
We are talking winning hands in this calculation, not chopped.
Anyway I may not be the sharpest tool in the box, but here's my input.

Give Rank Badyin say 2 of clubs 2 of spades.
My hole cards are K of hearts, J of hearts (hey I'm the good guy)
Flop goes down Q of hearts, 10 of hearts, 7 of clubs (as it would).
Calculation:-
9 flush draws (He makes a set with 2H, loses to my flush, same
with 7H with two pairs)
3 low straight draws.
3 high straight draws.
3 Kings in the other suits.
3 Jacks in the other suits.
Total = 21.

Queens or Tens turning up are as much use as an ash-tray on a motorbike, and no help to my hand

Now if anybody can increase beyond 21, or show my flawed thinking, I'll be happy to finally know the number.
Any Q, 10, or 7 on the turn with give you additional outs as you can draw to a better 2 pair.

Example: Qh10h7c10s means you can draw to:
-Flush
-Straight
-K or J
-Any Q or 7 gives you a better 2 pair.

Lets say river is Qh10h7c10s7d. You now have 101077K > 101077Q which gives you the win.

So, if the board pairs on the turn, you have an additional 6 outs.

BTW, this is all preflop, right? That's the only way I can see 22 continuing on that flop.

If it's not AIPF, then you have a ton more outs than you think in terms of fold equity. You have 45 outs that'll miss 22 and make it hard to continue in the hand. We have to consider that any card that is higher than 22 is a scare card and you easily represent a stronger hand that'll be hard for a player with 22 to call down with.

I know this is theory, but it's something to consider.
 
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seventhsense

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seventhsense - can you run that past me again , I seemed to have missed it. If a 7 is turned I have one pair, but Badyin has two pairs 7s and 2s

Exactly, and any more pairing of the board gives you the best hand.

I'm saying you can add more outs by moving to the river as the deciding card.
 
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The previous answer adding a card that pairs the board on the turn(Q,10,7) will mean that villain goes to 2 pair but it also opens the door for the board to be double paired on the river. So if it goes 7 on the turn then 10 on the river you have 7 7 10 10 K and the other dude has 7 7 10 10 Q. You win. So on the flop you do not yet have these outs but on the turn they could arrive giving you 6 more outs to 27. Now like Fermat's last theorem the search is on for that 28th out...(You may have only been asking for current outs on the flop of course and again there seems to be a card that some think give you 22 outs there..what is it?)
 
George Lewis

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Also, keep in mind that if you knew his cards and he shoved the flop you would call as you can see that you have 21 outs twice that you just pointed out. After that if there are more and the board double pairing is more then you would for sure call. Going super deep and saying he catches runner runner 22 is just too much thinking. It is enough to say you have 2 overs and flush and straight draws. It becomes a snap call. As for theory..back to flop at least 21(what is the 22 out?) and by the river 27(28?).
 
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Thank you guys for pointing out the error of my thinking and not considering the pairings and kickers. However I have taken it a stage farther and considered all the possible pairings. Of the unknown cards remaining we have 3 Queens, 3 Tens and 2 Sevens, all looking for a slot in either the turn or the river. So :-
3 Queens with 3 Tens gives 9 outs.
3 Queens with 2 Sevens gives 6 outs.
3 Tens with 2 Sevens gives 6 outs.
Making a pairing total of 21 outs.

Added to the original number of outs gives a mindblowing maximum of 42 outs.
 
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rhombus

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Thank you guys for pointing out the error of my thinking and not considering the pairings and kickers. However I have taken it a stage farther and considered all the possible pairings. Of the unknown cards remaining we have 3 Queens, 3 Tens and 2 Sevens, all looking for a slot in either the turn or the river. So :-
3 Queens with 3 Tens gives 9 outs.
3 Queens with 2 Sevens gives 6 outs.
3 Tens with 2 Sevens gives 6 outs.
Making a pairing total of 21 outs.

Added to the original number of outs gives a mindblowing maximum of 42 outs.
You cant count cards twice.
Think you are right on the flop with 21 outs, and as already mentioned if the turn was a 7d or 7s that gives you additional 4 outs so possibly 25 on the Turn.

So I think the answer is 25 on the turn
7 Hearts

3 Aces for Straight
3 Nines for a Straight

3 Kings for 2 Pair
3 Queens for 2 Pair
3 Jacks for 2 Pair
3 Tens for 2 Pair

Even though you have more outs on the turn you are only 57% favourite whilst on the Flop you are 72%
 
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rhombus : I never counted cards twice. You have Queen of spades, Queen of clubs and Queen of diamonds; Ten of spades, Ten of clubs and Ten of Diamonds; Seven of spades and Seven of diamonds which have not been counted. You have all manner of permutations to make the number up to 21 outs, then you also have the original 21. Seems ridiculous, but that's the way the numbers fall.
 
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seventhsense

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I thought I answered this at the start. Does nobody actually read other posts?

27 is definitely the most possible. I just found the source where you found 28 and it was incorrect.
 
George Lewis

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By using the exact cards stated the 2 of hearts and 7 of hearts end up not being outs so yes it appears 21 and 25 are cool. 27 is possible if we change the suits in the original example.
 
George Lewis

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Anyone stubborn enough to hang around with 22 in this hand needs to be at my table by the way. I did in fact 3 barrel bluff into a guy with 22 and stacked off to him. He was up big and I had just arrived. By the end of the night myself and the rest of the regulars craved our share of him up as he was drinking and having a good time all day and all night until of course we cleaned him out. I was happy to provide the entertainment for him that night.
 
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rhombus

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rhombus : I never counted cards twice. You have Queen of spades, Queen of clubs and Queen of diamonds; Ten of spades, Ten of clubs and Ten of Diamonds; Seven of spades and Seven of diamonds which have not been counted. You have all manner of permutations to make the number up to 21 outs, then you also have the original 21. Seems ridiculous, but that's the way the numbers fall.
looks like you are counting running outs and not outs. On the flop a Queen gives you a pair but then they could hit a 2 so you can't count 42
 
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rhombus

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I thought I answered this at the start. Does nobody actually read other posts?

27 is definitely the most possible. I just found the source where you found 28 and it was incorrect.
in the example of OP you can't have 27 when a 7 hits the turn


In your example you said you have 21 then another 6 when 7 hits, but you will only have 7 flush outs. 2 of Hearts gives them the full house as does the 7 of hearts
 
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Very interesting but what if a second queen comes out then what happens
 
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In any hand, you may have additional bluff outs. Just be careful when & who you bluff.
 
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If you turn a 7 then you add another 6 outs with the double paired board option that counterfeit the underpair.

So that is 27 total.


At first I also calculated the outs 21 , but I was confused with the possibility the villain to make his ful house when a 2h appears on the board with Q or 10 or 7 so I was wondering if we had to remove 2h ...my mistake :D .
Many times I make mistakes in odds calculations with the two pairs :( . You are right , with the two pairs (QQ1010K,etc) so finally we have plus 6 outs total 27 , or is it plus 3 total 24 ?:D no,no 27 fo sure...mmmm.... ) .
 
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in the example of OP you can't have 27 when a 7 hits the turn


In your example you said you have 21 then another 6 when 7 hits, but you will only have 7 flush outs. 2 of Hearts gives them the full house as does the 7 of hearts

Okay. What about?

7♠ 5♠ vs 2♥ 2♣:

Flop: 4♠ 6♣ 6♠ (9♥)

8 - spades
2 - 9's
3 - 8's
3 - 7's
3 - 5's
3 - 4's
3 - 3's

That's 25 like someone mentioned earlier. I've played around with it for an hour. That must be the max.
 
Aceplayer55

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Seventhsense was making this point:

When a 7 hits the turn and a Q hits the river, hero wins with QQ77K vs QQ77T.
When a 7 hits the turn and a T hits the river, hero wins with TT77K vs TT77Q.
etc.

You gain an additional 6 outs on the river (27 total) whenever the board has 2 pair. (QQ77, TT77, or QQTT) due to the kicker.
 
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IPlay

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Okay. What about?

7♠ 5♠ vs 2♥ 2♣:

Flop: 4♠ 6♣ 6♠ (9♥)

8 - spades
2 - 9's
3 - 8's
3 - 7's
3 - 5's
3 - 4's
3 - 3's

That's 25 like someone mentioned earlier. I've played around with it for an hour. That must be the max.

Nvm, I think this is the most possible. I had this convo at a live table before and the answer was something similar to this.
 
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rhombus

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Seventhsense was making this point:

When a 7 hits the turn and a Q hits the river, hero wins with QQ77K vs QQ77T.
When a 7 hits the turn and a T hits the river, hero wins with TT77K vs TT77Q.
etc.

You gain an additional 6 outs on the river (27 total) whenever the board has 2 pair. (QQ77, TT77, or QQTT) due to the kicker.
you do gain 6 outs for the two pair outs, but lose 2outs from the flush cards so 25 in total
2hearts gives villlain 22277 and 7hearts they have 77722
 
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On the flop, 21 outs is the most. That would be an open ended straight flush draw with two live overcards.

Even vs an opponent with top pair, the draw is just over a 2:1 favourite.
 
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seventhsense

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On the flop, 21 outs is the most. That would be an open ended straight flush draw with two live overcards.

Even vs an opponent with top pair, the draw is just over a 2:1 favourite.

See my hand above. 23 is the most for the flop.
 
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