Odds for setmining

pocketehs

pocketehs

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Havent made a thread post in a while so I was hoping some of the more mathematical players could help me sort this one out as its a huge leak in my game after looking at some hand reports on PT3.

I imagine we calc our odds for setmining small pocket pairs in a cashgame as we would calc our odds for any hand. The odds are like 8.5:1 that we hit our set, right? Does this mean we need 8.5:1 to call a raise with a small pp?

Example 1 - were in EP with say 33. we limp $0.02 and a player in MP also limps. BTN then raises to 0.10.
Pot size: 0.17.
Needed to call: 0.08.
Do we have the odds to call?

Example 2 - were in BB with 33 again. EP raises to 0.06. BTN flats calls. SB folds.
Pot size: 0.14.
Needed to call: 0.04
I imagine here we do, but I want to learn how to actually understand how to do this and make profitable calls instead of just guessing really.

Hope this helps some other players as well!
 
AlfieAA

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BUMP....Good question...hope we get some good replys to this......but my guess would be you dont need 8.5/1 odds to play pocket pairs for setmining, because you would need to be in LP and have about 8 limpers/callers behind you lol to make it mathematically correct......i think its more a situational play....if you have a limper/limpers behind you, you can call...or semi bluff reraise in SB if everyone has folded to you....
 
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dan abnormal

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Setming for me turns more costly then profitable, since it seems I miss everytime until I say Im gonna play it safe and fold and then its the first card to hit the flop. Id like to hear some good setmining strategy too.
 
AlfieAA

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also, in your first example pokertehs, i wouldnt be open limping your pocket pairs.....and if the BTN raised to 10 then its a fold with 99>22's imo...
 
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doomasiggy

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I imagine we calc our odds for setmining small pocket pairs in a cashgame as we would calc our odds for any hand. The odds are like 8.5:1 that we hit our set, right? Does this mean we need 8.5:1 to call a raise with a small pp?-snip-

The issue isn't really one of pot odds as it is of implied odds. Assuming all players have 100bb, you have better implied odds vs an EP raise if you flop a set than if you limp call vs a late position raise.
 
MediaBLITZ

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I'm not a math guy, so you are not going to get that answer here, BUT you do need to realize that it is not a pot odds question - not in the strict conventional sense of pot odds. But that's a good thing cause getting straight-on pot odds for set mining doesn't happen too often, except on maybe family pots (then you are looking to deal with others with straight and flush draws).

Now in Set Mining you are dealing with IMPLIED odds - and while you can still make that mathematical, it entails making a lot of educated guesses and having a good read on your table. When I am set mining I have to process through my short criteria for that and having pot odds is at the end of the list.

#1 - Position. Will I be able to make good decisions on whether to continue this hand or not.

#2 - Can I do this fairly cheap? And I don't mean a limp (though that's okay if you can get it). I measure than by how many big blinds it will cost me versus my stack size. Obviously I am more willing when the money it will cost me is a smaller percentage of my stack. The pot odds may not be good, but if the investment is only a tiny percentage of my stack then that's more important to me.

#3 - Implied Odds. Who am I playing against? Are they going to pay me off if I hit this? Set mining is kind of high risk. I don't want to take that risk if it's not going to get me a really nice pot. That means if the raiser is a nit who is going to fold AK when the board lands 36J and I lead out on my pocket sixes - then it wasn't really worth the risk. I want to know I am going to get some action if I hit this pathetic loser. if I feel I will not get action - I am not going mining. Now if it was some hate to fold Merson character, then yeah - let's see a flop.

#4 - Then of course there is the standard stuff like stack sizes, etc that should never be overlooked...

So for me - your examples do not provide nearly enough info to decide if I am going to turn on the lamp on my mining helmet, BUT - in a nutshell:

Example 1 - probably not

Example 2 - probably so

Hope this helps you to see the bigger picture.
 
Arjonius

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The odds of flopping a set are about 1 in 8, but even when you do, it's not always the winning hand. It doesn't happen very often, but when you hit a lower set, you're likely to lose the max. To balance this off, you need to capitalize on implied odds by winning more than the minimum when your set holds.

Another consideration is that when you miss the flop but your small pair is actually ahead, you're likely to fold a fair amount of the time when there's action. Again, this means you have to win more than the min when your sets win.

These and other factors are why it's usually suggested that you want to look for implied odds of 20:1 in order to set mine profitably.
 
mrmonkey

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Example 1 - were in EP with say 33. we limp $0.02 and a player in MP also limps. BTN then raises to 0.10.
Pot size: 0.17.
Needed to call: 0.08.
Do we have the odds to call?

You need to know villain stack sizes. If BTN has 80+bb ($1.60+) left, then generally you do have implied odds to call here. With respect to implied odds, one thing to consider is whether the villain you are up against will easily stack off with worse. However, you are also out of position and it is harder to build the pot when OOP and you do hit your set. I also suggest you don't open limp unless you have a very specific reason for doing so.

Example 2 - were in BB with 33 again. EP raises to 0.06. BTN flats calls. SB folds.
Pot size: 0.14.
Needed to call: 0.04
I imagine here we do, but I want to learn how to actually understand how to do this and make profitable calls instead of just guessing really.

Hope this helps some other players as well!

Again, you need to know stack sizes in order to determine whether you have the right implied odds to call. In this case, effective stack sizes need to be at least 40bb (.80c). We are out of position in this example again, but if you are confident that you can get your villain's stacks in regardless then a call can be profitable.
 
pocketehs

pocketehs

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You need to know villain stack sizes. If BTN has 80+bb ($1.60+) left, then generally you do have implied odds to call here. With respect to implied odds, one thing to consider is whether the villain you are up against will easily stack off with worse. However, you are also out of position and it is harder to build the pot when OOP and you do hit your set. I also suggest you don't open limp unless you have a very specific reason for doing so.



Again, you need to know stack sizes in order to determine whether you have the right implied odds to call. In this case, effective stack sizes need to be at least 40bb (.80c). We are out of position in this example again, but if you are confident that you can get your villain's stacks in regardless then a call can be profitable.

Mrmonkey, I've taken this approach into my game lately and its been working pretty well. However, would you suggest open folding small pps in EP? So, what type of player are we looking to play sets against? tight-aggressive or loose-aggressive? Or does it just depend on the situation?
 
domeburglar

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Good thread! Ive had big problems figuring out when and when not to play small pairs.. prolly where i lose the most money... Can be real tricky i like what ive read so far hopefully some more good tips come thru
 
youregoodmate

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Full Ring I would be folding 22-77 in EP. Dont open limp, either raise or fold.
 
Rldetheflop

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Well I am an Stt'er so I will really only speak to that. generally as long as we are getting 20-1 implied odds then we had the odds to set-mine. The overage on implied odds covers us from the times we don't stack premiums with our set and the times we get stacked by a better hand. There are times when you don't need quite that good of odds. (position, villain image, our image etc.).

In an Stt we usually only have odds to setmine in the first few levels.
 
naruto_miu

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Full Ring I would be folding 22-77 in EP. Dont open limp, either raise or fold.


So curious, are you stating that you play these same hands in LP to set mine with? Or are you saying in general it's better to just open fold those hands in E.P all-together?

Also another note, what if your on a limping station table and your in EP with 22-77 (you know they all just limp, never raise), could you not limp in this case to set min, knowing your getting, enough implied odds+8:1 with your set right there and than just by limping or am I missing something else in your post that I didn't quite catch on to yet
 
JusSumguy

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If I were to play a small PP in EP, limping would be counterproductive to me. A min raise will add Ax to my hand post flop.

Because I figure I'm gonna miss, and have to outplay the villain OOP, at least I've got the A to bet with.

And if I'm faced with a big re-raise preflop, I still have fold equity.

-
 
pocketehs

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Ok, so like UTG/UTG1 I've been open folding small pps. However, I had this hand today in MP with 44 and thought this thread could benefit from an example. Can someone help me go over our implied odds for calling the 3-bet, please?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Villain: 10/5/infinity w a 6% 3-bet (all 3-bets were from LP not blinds) over 266 hands
Hero: 14/11/3 w a 6 PFR in MP. Not sure if this is necessary for our perceived image.

CO ($1.15)
Button ($2.53)
SB ($1.47)
Villain (BB) ($2.04)
UTG ($0.98)
UTG+1 ($3.31)
Hero (MP1) ($2.51)
MP2 ($4.26)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4
heart.gif
, 4
spade.gif

2 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 4 folds, Villain raises to $0.24, Hero...?

After reading some of the posts today, I thought my implied odds were pretty good b/c:
1 - villain has a 100 bb stack with ~75bbs back
2 - villain has a monster. At worst he has like AK. If we hit our set were GII

Anymore help here, please? Is there a way to calculate our odds instead of just suggesting whether theyre either "good" or "bad?"
 
Last edited:
Rldetheflop

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Ok, so like UTG/UTG1 I've been open folding small pps. However, I had this hand today in MP with 44 and thought this thread could benefit from an example. Can someone help me go over our implied odds for calling the 3-bet, please?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Villain: 10/5/infinity w a 6% 3-bet (all 3-bets were from LP not blinds) over 266 hands
Hero: 14/11/3 w a 6 PFR in MP. Not sure if this is necessary for our perceived image.

CO ($1.15)
Button ($2.53)
SB ($1.47)
Villain (BB) ($2.04)
UTG ($0.98)
UTG+1 ($3.31)
Hero (MP1) ($2.51)
MP2 ($4.26)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4
heart.gif
, 4
spade.gif

2 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 4 folds, Villain raises to $0.24, Hero...?

After reading some of the posts today, I thought my implied odds were pretty good b/c:
1 - villain has a 100 bb stack with ~75bbs back
2 - villain has a monster. At worst he has like AK. If we hit our set were GII

Anymore help here, please? Is there a way to calculate our odds instead of just suggesting whether theyre either "good" or "bad?"

Well yes villain is 100 BB deep to start the hand but you have to call 8BB so you are getting about 12.75-1($2.04/$.16). IMO this is not good enough to set mine. You do have position but with 44 I think just let it go.

Like I said earlier I am not a "cash" guy so perhaps I shouldn't even be commenting but here is my 2 cents anyway.

Also why are we raising 4x? is this a standard play at this level I am not sure on this but the reason I ask is that if we raise like 3x or 2.5x the 3 bet will be smaller and perhaps with multiple callers which would give us good odds.
 
Arjonius

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Maybe it's easier to look at implied odds using $ rather than BB. You have to call 0.16 to set mine. If you use a 20x guideline, 20 x 0.16 = 3.20 required to meet the 20x. The villain has less behind, so you don't have enough implied odd to set mine here.

Note it's not how much he had at the start of the hand that matters, but rather what he has left in his stack at the time you when have to act.
 
Rldetheflop

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Maybe it's easier to look at implied odds using $ rather than BB. You have to call 0.16 to set mine. If you use a 20x guideline, 20 x 0.16 = 3.20 required to meet the 20x. The villain has less behind, so you don't have enough implied odd to set mine here.

Note it's not how much he had at the start of the hand that matters, but rather what he has left in his stack at the time you when have to act.

Are you sure? Cause basically we are saying we have to call X to have a chance to win Y well if we get his stack that includes the money he already put in. I think we should also be factoring in any dead money.
 
pocketehs

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Thanks for the help everyone!

If our odds are not perfect but are close does it then become player/situation dependent? For instance, say we only raised 0.06 in the example and villain then re-popped us to 0.18 then given the 20:1 guideline we're still not getting great implied odds.

20 x 0.12 = 2.40 and leftover stack is 1.82.

However, in the situation we are fairly certain that villain has a monster given his stats. Since the difference in our implied odds needed vs actual implied odds is only ~29bbs, then can we make this call b.c we assume that if we hit were going to get the stacks in? Or do we assume that were getting stacks in everytime we setmine?
 
Rldetheflop

Rldetheflop

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Thanks for the help everyone!

If our odds are not perfect but are close does it then become player/situation dependent? For instance, say we only raised 0.06 in the example and villain then re-popped us to 0.18 then given the 20:1 guideline we're still not getting great implied odds.

20 x 0.12 = 2.40 and leftover stack is 1.82.

However, in the situation we are fairly certain that villain has a monster given his stats. Since the difference in our implied odds needed vs actual implied odds is only ~29bbs, then can we make this call b.c we assume that if we hit were going to get the stacks in? Or do we assume that were getting stacks in everytime we setmine?

No we can't assume that we are getting stacks in everytime this is why there is such a difference in implied odds needed and actual odds of hitting our set we have to allow for times we don't stack our villain plus the times we get stacked ourselves when we hit our set but still do not have the best hand.

and yes as in just about every aspect of poker always have to factor in who we are up against.
 
pocketehs

pocketehs

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No we can't assume that we are getting stacks in everytime this is why there is such a difference in implied odds needed and actual odds of hitting our set we have to allow for times we don't stack our villain plus the times we get stacked ourselves when we hit our set but still do not have the best hand.

and yes as in just about every aspect of poker always have to factor in who we are up against.

I kind of thought that was the reason however, I just wanted to be sure! Thanks RTF, Arjonius and everyone for responding! Hope this thread helped others as well
 
G

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You need better than 8.5:1 to set mine because you will still lose some times, and sometimes you will not get paid off. If you are playing a spewy player, or there are many players in the pot you can accept 12:1 implied odds. Otherwise you want 20:1. This means that with a full stack of 100bb you can theoretically call 5bb with a pp and expect to be profitable over the long haul. Personally I will call up to 4 with any pp, but as the pairs get bigger. ... say TT to QQ I will call more simply because my hand is stronger, but these hands are often a 3bet/fold for me.
 
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