Odds for FD or OESD
I was in the cardroom and a fellow poker player started talking about odds
to hit a FD. I think he is wrong, but it got me thinking....
Here is how I calculate odds:
If I flop a FD, I have 9 outs. 47 cards left in deck. So 9 goes into 47 about 5 times. Giving roughly 1 in 5 (or around 20%) to hit my draw seeing only one more card. The reason I calculate for only seeing 1 more card is because if I miss on the turn, I will have to decide again if I want to call a bet to see the river. And I recalculate the same way on turn if I miss, and I am faced with another decision to call a bet on turn.
This guy at the casino says something like:
Multiply your outs x 2 for every card left to come. So he says if you flop a FD, you have 9 outs x 2 for turn, and 2 for river. According to him, a FD has a 36% chance of hitting.
I told him that is incorrect unless you are guaranteed to see both turn and river, you will be faced with another bet on turn if you miss your draw. Then, you will have to pay to see another card. Regardless, I think 36% is too high. I don't think the odds are that good to hit a FD.
The reason I ask this is because many card players use the system of multiplying your outs x 2 for every street to come. So 9 outs times 2 twice for flopped FD.
I think 36% is not the correct number for making a FD if you flop it.
Am I right, or is he right?
I never want to assume I will see both turn and river unless I am all in, and guaranteed to see both regardless.
Someone please explain this to me. I think my current way of calculating odds is just fine.