The odds of AA winning?

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tothbopo

tothbopo

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I've heard severel times now that pocket aces are losing more on pokerstars then they should according to odds calculators.

I do not have enough experience to determinate if that is right or wrong.

But is there som trough in it, when people say 66% for the win on pokerstars and not 80 like odds calculator would say.

Or is it just bad loosers talking?
 
Fknife

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I do not have enough experience to determinate if that is right or wrong.
Fortunately someone else already did: http://www.ispokerrigged.com/Is PokerStars Rigged.html
But is there som trough in it, when people say 66% for the win on pokerstars and not 80 like odds calculator would say.
Preflop equity is dependent on number of players and their ranges. Against one opponent with random hand, AA has about 85% equity but if you take more players its equity drops significantly.
Or is it just bad loosers talking?
Maybe they just dont want to see the other side of AA -> you still lose 15% of the time against ONE random hand!
 
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donetola

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if you lucky you can win even with 23 for example
 
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WiZZiM

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people remember only the times they lost with AA, not all the times when they won. Quite simply, they are stupid.
 
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hffjd2000

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What I can remember past and present, I lost AA with big pots and win it only at small ones 70% of the time.
 
tothbopo

tothbopo

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Ok so nothing is right about that I guess
 
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SwiftHax

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What I can remember past and present, I lost AA with big pots and win it only at small ones 70% of the time.
Exactly what is supposed to happen. With big pairs you will win small pots and lose big ones. It's the other way around for AK.

Anyone who thinks PokerStars or any other poker site is rigged probably doesn't play Poker very well and blames the sites for loosing his/her money.
 
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DrazaFFT

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^^^i would really love to see elaboration on this one!!!
 
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SwiftHax

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^^^i would really love to see elaboration on this one!!!
When you're playing AA or KK your opponents will know it and fold the flop when they don't pick up a draw or make a good hand, so you will win a small pot from the pre-flop. If they do, however make a hand they will get value from it as you won't be as quick to fold it.

When it comes to AK, you will need a piece of the board to win the hand, so if you don't flop much, you might put out a c-bet, but give up after that and lose a relatively small pot. When you do hit, that Ace or King will make it harder for your opponents to pick a draw or make a hand and you will get some nice pots from weaker kings and aces. Also higher flushes and straights.

I don't know if I explained it well, but this is from the book "Super System" written by Doyle Brunson if anyone is wondering.
 
Fknife

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Just like @SwiftHax wrote and there is a saying: "Big hand big pot, small hand small pot". You dont want to put your entire stack in the middle with AA unimproved because its just a pair.
 
DrazaFFT

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Not even think to argue with Doyle and the super/system, but let me try to ask you this one, does the board, villain tendencies, position and the preflop and post flop action have anything to do with weather you'll win or lose a big pot?

Please answer me this, in your opinion does the same imply with small pocket pairs? when you flop a set they'll beat aces in huge pots, is it also meant to be and we cant do anything about it?

It is your post flop play that makes you lose big pots with AA and KK, it is not the hand it is when you cant see that you are behind...

EDIT FTER FKNIFE POST:
it is true that AA is just a pair, the more streets you see the less value it have but preflop it is a best starting hand, huge huge favorite even against KK it is over 80% that doesn't mean that unimproved it will win 80% post on later streets but you need to take into consideration that non paired preflop hand connects to board about 30ish% of a times, even on flop aces crush most of the villains range, but if someone is still sticked in hand with you having aces you cant blame cards for loosing a big pot do you?
 
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DunningKruger

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With big pairs you will win small pots and lose big ones

This generally tends to be true for weak players. The worse you are at the game, the more true it becomes.

Still, rare is the individual (even among the unskilled) who doesn't have AA showing in thair database as their single most profitable hand.
 
Fahrenheit451

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Can anyone explain how AA should be played ?

If I play with a bunch of maniaks, then it's easy - just push AI and count chips.

But if I play with normal (tight) players I can only get blinds that way.
I want more with such a nice pair and I try to play slowly, but every time I manage to grow big pot, someone has straight, flush or at least two pairs.

Is there a strategy to win big pots with AA ?
 
Fknife

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Please answer me this, in your opinion does the same imply with small pocket pairs? when you flop a set they'll beat aces in huge pots, is it also meant to be and we cant do anything about it?
Yes Draza, you can just fold and not pay off :)

It is your post flop play that makes you lose big pots with AA and KK, it is not the hand it is when you cant see that you are behind...
Its all about relative hand strength (so yes, your postflop play). If the board gets scary, passive players start to go crazy, you face large turn/river raises etc, you have to consider that you may be probably beat and a pair is not good enough. It all comes down to reading the flop, creating opponents' continuation ranges, assessing your equity street-by-street and making good decisions: whether you want to take a pot-control line, go for thin-value, fold etc etc...
 
S3mper

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I think KK is my least profitable hand and by think I mean I guarantee it (maybe)
 
Fknife

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But if I play with normal (tight) players I can only get blinds that way.
I want more with such a nice pair and I try to play slowly, but every time I manage to grow big pot, someone has straight, flush or at least two pairs.
Of course! Why would they call you with a junk hand preflop having only 15% equity against your AA? Most TAGish players know what you open-raise with preflop so they will only cold-call hands that can make sets/straight/flushes (PPs, A2s-A5s, SCs) so they could get payed off when they hit a big hand.
 
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SwiftHax

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The fact that players profit AA is because in micros people don't fold enough and call ridiculous bets with their TPTK hands which Aces crush. I used to overvalue my overpairs which I don't anymore. I'm actually at the reverse now, I lose big with AK and win small.

@Draza, of course it matters. You can never blame the cards. We all get the same cards and we all get into the same situations, yet some of us turn profit, some lose. It all boils down to your post-flop play how much you lose with monster hands.

Super system was written long ago, when the game was much softer and players much worse. Still, the book had some useful advice to give.
 
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DrazaFFT

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The fact that players profit AA is because in micros people don't fold enough and call ridiculous bets with their TPTK hands which Aces crush. I used to overvalue my overpairs which I don't anymore. I'm actually at the reverse now, I lose big with AK and win small.

@Draza, of course it matters. You can never blame the cards. We all get the same cards and we all get into the same situations, yet some of us turn profit, some lose. It all boils down to your post-flop play how much you lose with monster hands.

Super system was written long ago, when the game was much softer and players much worse. Still, the book had some useful advice to give.

Exactly my point, you just saved me from writing a 100 lines post :D

S/S is a great book, definitely a must read for any poker player, unfortunately it can't turn a beginner's game around, there are another books specially for that purpose that doesn't mean that s/s shouldn't be read...
 
Fknife

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Exactly my point, you just saved me from writing a 100 lines post :D

Well, thats exactly what I meant: know when to fold. In fact, one of the DeucesCracked instructors in a video I watched recently, said something like: "If you bet strong all your good hands (mostly TP), and fold EACH time unimproved to an aggression you would still make a great profit and dont have to worry about being exploited on mikrostakes".
 
Staneff

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This is bullshit. Whatever Odd Calculator says it`s % chance to win. There is no difference between 50% and 60%. In some situations having 80% win chance and when u get all your outs burned or folded by other players your chance is not 80% anymore.

AA is good hand if:
your opponents dont have more that 1 pair;
comunity cards dont offer bigger hands like 3 of kind, straight, flush... ;
you get a set of Aces!
Dont overrate your hand holding AA KK QQ or any other high hand u can hold. Hitting the nuts is the way u win the pot at 100%. All other hands u hold are threatened from bigger hands.
 
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SwiftHax

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S/S is a great book, definitely a must read for any poker player, unfortunately it can't turn a beginner's game around, there are another books specially for that purpose that doesn't mean that s/s shouldn't be read...
As we got to that, could you recommend some books worth reading?

Can anyone explain how AA should be played ?

If I play with a bunch of maniaks, then it's easy - just push AI and count chips.

But if I play with normal (tight) players I can only get blinds that way.
I want more with such a nice pair and I try to play slowly, but every time I manage to grow big pot, someone has straight, flush or at least two pairs.

Is there a strategy to win big pots with AA ?
Slow-playing AA is never to be a standard play. You're allowing players to see a cheap flop and pay them off once they hit.

Sadly, you won't win big pots with AA often and there's no strategy to change that. Usually when both players have strong hands the pot grows big. Heading into a big pot with AA unimproved is deadly most of the time because it's just a pair after all.
 
DrazaFFT

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As we got to that, could you recommend some books worth reading?

Depends on what's your goal and what type of game you prefer and what is your current level...

Im a beginner and i have read Ace on the river while i consider poker just an recreation. After that i read super/system just because Doyle wrote it. After that book i was hooked to learning and joined here. Next was Little green book by Phil Gordon which is a must for a beginner. Nathan Williams Crushing the microstakes, Try Ngoyen The poker blueprint are great beginner books with lots of math and strategy for a cash beginner, I also have read John A book, Polished Poker.
Today Fknife and Logan recomended me this two
"Dynamic Full Ring Poker: Beyond The Basics" by James Sweeney
"Building a bankroll, Full Ring Edition" by Pawel "Verneer" Nazarewicz

With torneys you'll want to go with Harrington...
 
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SwiftHax

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Wow, great list :) do you know any 6-max specific books?
 
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thatgreekdude

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Aces aren't invincible you'll lose one for every five that you win
 
DrazaFFT

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poker blue print is mostly 6-max and of course harrington on online cash 6-max, i have never read it, beside first few chapters, ive heard that it is more for a bit higher levels...
 
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