Odds of a Four of a Kind

A

Archie Dos Santos

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Hi,
Just want to know what are the odds of player 3 getting "Four of a Kind" for this situation.
Player 1 9s 5s
Player 2 5d 4c
Player 3 3h 3d

On the table are 6s 7s 3s Kh

Cheers, Archie
 
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vwpokernut

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some stat nerds are gonna pop in here

but, there is a general rule of 4 and 2

multiple your outs on the flop by 4 to get your percentage of hitting by the river

multiply your outs on the turn by 2 to get your percentage of hitting on the river

note that the flop by 4 accounts for getting to the river
 
Poker_Mike

Poker_Mike

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Hi,
Just want to know what are the odds of player 3 getting "Four of a Kind" for this situation.
Player 1 9s 5s
Player 2 5d 4c
Player 3 3h 3d

On the table are 6s 7s 3s Kh

Cheers, Archie


With the information you provided I think it is 2/42 - so, not good.

10 cards out of the 52 deck are known - that leaves 42 random cards left in the deck.

There is only one 3 left. So, 1/42 or ~2.3% - this is for each street - add the 2 streets together for a total probability of approx. 4.6%

It is more likely you fill up with a full-house.

Approx. 20% for both hands combined - because both hands beat the nuts on the flop (except for strt flush).

It is possible to get correct pot odds (or better) in this situation depending on stack sizes and your position.

Good luck !
 
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