Odds For A Flush Draw

You are dealt two good suited cards, and you are thinking it;s a possible flush hand.
Scenario 1 : Flop comes down with two of your suited cards and all is well, you have 4/1 (4.2/1 to be pedantic) to make your flush
Scenario 2 : Flop comes down, but with only one of your suited cards. What do you do when it's your turn to bet and your odds are 3.8/1 to play or muck?
Those who said 'fold' get an 'F' for poker. Strangely enough the odds of still making your fush are 3.7/1, while marginal they are still good
OK you need runner, runner, but it can happen

rigor mortis said:

Scenario 2 : Flop comes down, but with only one of your suited cards. What do you do when it's your turn to bet and your odds are 3.8/1 to play or muck?

Click to expand...

You check.

Then, if someone bets, your pot odds have to be better than 3.8:1 in order to justify the call. That's a bet no higher than 36% of the pot. Keep in mind, it's hard to calculate if you're actually getting 3.8:1 odds. Your better off rounding it down to 3.5:1 or even rounding it up to 4:1. Close enough...

If the turn card is the correct suit, you could consider a semi-bluff if the action checks to you.

Or you can just check and hope the pot odds favor you again if someone bets.

These situations just suck though. They only become chase worthy when you can see the turn card for cheap. How often though is someone betting 1/4 the pot?? Seems like never....

Which reminds us of how helpful the 2/3 pot size bet is. It makes it really hard for anyone to get pot odds. They have to have at least 11 outs in order to consider the call.

I like your math.

Just a quick fix. If pot is 100$ and oponent bets 100$ it's 200$. So you have to call 100$ to win 300$ that would require roughly 33% of equity on any given street.

That without considering a future value.

Regards

Vachina said:

I like your math.

Just a quick fix. If pot is 100$ and oponent bets 100$ it's 200$. So you have to call 100$ to win 300$ that would require roughly 33% of equity on any given street.

That without considering a future value.

Regards

Click to expand...

Regardless of what the pot size is, if your opponent bets more than 36% of the pot, your pot odds will not be better than 3.8:1.

It's technically 35.90%.

Pot is $1000.
Bet is $359

Pot is now $1359 and you have to call $359.

Your pot odds are 3.79:1

In reality, decent players are making this call with odds anywhere better than 3:1. That's why the 2/3 pot size bet is good when you think your opponent is on a draw.

If he bets $666 (2/3 the pot), your pot odds are 2.5:1.

With 12 outs, you'll hit your card on the turn 41.38% of the time, which is 1.40% better than your pot odds (39.98%) So, you're gonna need a straight draw (Open or gut) and a flush draw or some other crazy way of getting 12 outs to justify calling $666. With 8 outs, you're -12.39%. behind your pot odds.

Just remember, if you have a flush draw or an open ended straight draw and your opponent leaves you with 4:1 pot odds or anywhere near 4:1, the call is good.

Pot is $1000
Bet is $400

Pot is now $1400 and you need to call $400.

Your pot odds are 3.5:1. With 8 outs, your card will hit 27.59% of the time. That's -0.99% below your pot odds (28.57%). So your calling 28.5% of the pot with a 27.5% chance of your card hitting. Good enough for me.

This changes a little bit with online games though because the RNG doesn't use burn cards. It's probably not enough to make you 2nd guess a call though.

Dark Army said:

Regardless of what the pot size is, if your opponent bets more than 36% of the pot, your pot odds will not be better than 3.8:1.

It's technically 35.90%.

Pot is $1000.
Bet is $359

Pot is now $1359 and you have to call $359.

Your pot odds are 3.79:1

In reality, decent players are making this call with odds anywhere better than 3:1. That's why the 2/3 pot size bet is good when you think your opponent is on a draw.

If he bets $666 (2/3 the pot), your pot odds are 2.5:1.

With 12 outs, you'll hit your card on the turn 41.38% of the time, which is 1.40% better than your pot odds (39.98%) So, you're gonna need a straight draw (Open or gut) and a flush draw or some other crazy way of getting 12 outs to justify calling $666. With 8 outs, you're -12.39%. behind your pot odds.

Just remember, if you have a flush draw or an open ended straight draw and your opponent leaves you with 4:1 pot odds or anywhere near 4:1, the call is good.

Pot is $1000
Bet is $400

Pot is now $1400 and you need to call $400.

Your pot odds are 3.5:1. With 8 outs, your card will hit 27.59% of the time. That's -0.99% below your pot odds (28.57%). So your calling 28.5% of the pot with a 27.5% chance of your card hitting. Good enough for me.

This changes a little bit with online games though because the RNG doesn't use burn cards. It's probably not enough to make you 2nd guess a call though.

Click to expand...

Could you expand on the statistical impact that not burning the cards has on online games.

Just kidding. Since the burned cards are unknown to anyone it makes no difference whatsoever.

You have to include your call amount to the overall pot size.

I have to tell you, thats the hand i love the most,but by the other hand i have louse or drop lots off chips paying for flushes that never came,still i allways try them,but my ex tells me to fold,so im trying to educate my emotions to only pay 1 to 5% off my stack looking the flush

Do not forget there are more layers and arguably things just as important as pot odds. You have to also think about reading your opponents range, the range you are projecting with your bets and checks. And also any possible implied odds (Say your flush has a gut shot straight draw or possible overs that could win the hand in a sneakier way that could get you more money out of your villain). Pot odds are important. But only 1 layer to why you should chase and in what fashion you should chase it.

Vachina said:

Could you expand on the statistical impact that not burning the cards has on online games.

Just kidding. Since the burned cards are unknown to anyone it makes no difference whatsoever.

You have to include your call amount to the overall pot size.

Click to expand...

The absence of burn cards does make a small difference.

Online, there's 30 cards left in the deck before the river card comes out (9 handed table).
In live games, there's 27.

Which would you rather have? The less, the better. Am I wrong?

Dark Army said:

The absence of burn cards does make a small difference.

Online, there's 30 cards left in the deck before the river card comes out (9 handed table).
In live games, there's 27.

Which would you rather have? The less, the better. Am I wrong?

Click to expand...

Yes you are wrong.

The cards that have been burned are unknown. It makes absolutely no difference. It's as if a dealer kept the deck intact and pulled a random card from a middle instead of burning top cards.

I am going to bed.

Take care.

Actually a runner runner flush does not have the same chance as getting a flush with only one more heart needed. It is actually around 5% to hit a runner runner flush.

Dark Army said:

The absence of burn cards does make a small difference.

Online, there's 30 cards left in the deck before the river card comes out (9 handed table).
In live games, there's 27.

Which would you rather have? The less, the better. Am I wrong?

Click to expand...

Yeah, it makes no difference. The cards that are not used in the players' holdings and the community cards have no effect on the hand and can be shuffled in any way or be of any value. The quantity of cards not in play don't affect the cards in play because they don't even come into the hand. The probability is still the same: 1/52 for every card. Why would the less, the better be true? Your hand strength depends on the value of the card and its suit, not on the quantity left in the deck (and cards that don't even matter).

Ovuvuevuevue said:

Yeah, it makes no difference. The cards that are not used in the players' holdings and the community cards have no effect on the hand and can be shuffled in any way or be of any value. The quantity of cards not in play don't affect the cards in play because they don't even come into the hand. The probability is still the same: 1/52 for every card. Why would the less, the better be true? Your hand strength depends on the value of the card and its suit, not on the quantity left in the deck (and cards that don't even matter).

Click to expand...

If you have 15 outs and there's 30 cards left in the deck, 50% of the cards make your hand. This of course doesn't really take into account just how many of those outs were dealt to other players who folded.

If you have 15 outs and 27 cards left in the deck, more than 50% (55.5%) of the cards make your hand. Why is this wrong?

Dark Army said:

If you have 15 outs and there's 30 cards left in the deck, 50% of the cards make your hand. This of course doesn't really take into account just how many of those outs were dealt to other players who folded.

If you have 15 outs and 27 cards left in the deck, more than 50% (55.5%) of the cards make your hand. Why is this wrong?

Click to expand...

If I shuffle a fresh deck, what is the chance the the top card is the Ace of Spades? 1 in 52. If I deal off the top 10 cards face down, what is the chance that the card on top now is the Ace of Spades? Still 1 in 52. The same probability will apply to the rest of the cards in the deck, including the King of spades, etc, down to the 2 of spades. Since there are 13 total spades, the chance that the card on top is a spade will be 13 in 52, or 1 in 4, no matter how many cards you deal (face down) first.


In your example, any of the burn cards could have been one of your outs, reducing your chance of seeing an out in the community cards. You can't say for certain that 15 out of 27 cards in the deck will make your hand because you don't know thanks to the burn cards. The probability of both situations (no burn card and burn card) are the same. If you burn a card and have no idea what the card is because you haven't looked at it, you can't say how many outs are in the remaining cards, balancing perfectly into no difference between a burn and no burn.

Well said
If all your outs happened to be burned or mucked by other players, you have 0% to hit your hand regardless of the cards left.

Dark Army said:

If you have 15 outs and there's 30 cards left in the deck, 50% of the cards make your hand. This of course doesn't really take into account just how many of those outs were dealt to other players who folded.

If you have 15 outs and 27 cards left in the deck, more than 50% (55.5%) of the cards make your hand. Why is this wrong?

Click to expand...

Your actually serious? You are not drawing from the amount of cards remaining in the deck, but you are drawing from the number of possible hole cards that are unknown to you. These are different things, you dont know the cards your opponent was dealt and folded before you, so the amount of cards in deck has changed, but not the possible outcomes.

This is a variation of the gamblers fallacy, you think your odds have changed, but they have not changed what-so-ever.

Think of it differently, instead of placing the burn cards to the side, instead put them on the bottom of the deck.

Does it make a difference of they are to the side or on the bottom of the deck?? Either way they are not getting drawn, so why would the odds change if they are put to the side.

Unless the burn cards are revealed face up, you cannot remove the possibility of a specific card not being drawn.

The only cards that matter are the cards that hit the board.

Here is an extreme example that I hope will make you understand.

Say there is 30 cards left in the deck, and you have 10 outs. If you burn 20 cards from the deck and leave 10 cards left, according to you 100% of the cards left will make your hand.... when in fact your odds of catching 1 of your ten outs is still the same as it was before the cards got burned.. do you see the problem with your assumption?.. The burn cards are not revealed so just pretend they instead moved to the bottom of the deck instead of too the side, as it makes no difference to the odds of hitting your outs.

The only cards you can subtract from the deck are the ones you can see. Your two hole cards and the community cards. The cards your opponents are dealt and fold do not change the odds either. Your odds on the flop will always be out of 47 remaining unknown cards, it does not matter how many opponents are dealt in and fold, or if cards get burnt/moved to bottom of deck. Unless the card is revealed and you know for 100% for sure , say, the King of Hearts got folded out or was a burn card, you must always assume all cards unknown to you are still available to be drawn. If you hold 2 cards and there is 3 cards on the flop, there is 47 remaining unknown holecards regardless of if there is 25, 28, 30, 40 or 43 cards in the deck left.

is there a machine one can purchase to give you all these odds

MatMackenz said:

Your actually serious? You are not drawing from the amount of cards remaining in the deck, but you are drawing from the number of possible hole cards that are unknown to you. These are different things, you dont know the cards your opponent was dealt and folded before you, so the amount of cards in deck has changed, but not the possible outcomes.

This is a variation of the gamblers fallacy, you think your odds have changed, but they have not changed what-so-ever.

Think of it differently, instead of placing the burn cards to the side, instead put them on the bottom of the deck.

Does it make a difference of they are to the side or on the bottom of the deck?? Either way they are not getting drawn, so why would the odds change if they are put to the side.

Unless the burn cards are revealed face up, you cannot remove the possibility of a specific card not being drawn.

The only cards that matter are the cards that hit the board.

Here is an extreme example that I hope will make you understand.

Say there is 30 cards left in the deck, and you have 10 outs. If you burn 20 cards from the deck and leave 10 cards left, according to you 100% of the cards left will make your hand.... when in fact your odds of catching 1 of your ten outs is still the same as it was before the cards got burned.. do you see the problem with your assumption?.. The burn cards are not revealed so just pretend they instead moved to the bottom of the deck instead of too the side, as it makes no difference to the odds of hitting your outs.

The only cards you can subtract from the deck are the ones you can see. Your two hole cards and the community cards. The cards your opponents are dealt and fold do not change the odds either. Your odds on the flop will always be out of 47 remaining unknown cards, it does not matter how many opponents are dealt in and fold, or if cards get burnt/moved to bottom of deck. Unless the card is revealed and you know for 100% for sure , say, the King of Hearts got folded out or was a burn card, you must always assume all cards unknown to you are still available to be drawn. If you hold 2 cards and there is 3 cards on the flop, there is 47 remaining unknown holecards regardless of if there is 25, 28, 30, 40 or 43 cards in the deck left.

Click to expand...

Okay now, that makes perfect sense. The calculation is based upon unseen cards.....not what's left in the deck. I was very unclear about that. I thought it was okay to calculate using remaining cards because I have always assumed that the odds of your outs (Or the majority of your outs) remaining in the deck is higher than the odds of them being dealt. I just saw it as a functional percentage and not an exact percentage.

I've been doing it wrong for quite some time. Although, it hasn't hurt me.

I won my first poker tournament in Vegas over 10 years ago. Since then, my live game results have been good. Not often do I find myself in a situation where I really need to be comparing pot odds to my out odds. The general rule I've followed is that if I have 8 or more outs and my opponent bets weak into the pot (Somewhere near 25% of the pot), the call is probably good. When the bet is too close to 1/2 the pot, I'm gonna need like 15 outs.

So, the numbers are actually 47 and 46. That makes things fairly simple considering it no longer matters how many people are at the table. #facepalm.

There's 10 outs that could hit on the turn with 47 unseen cards.

(10x100) / 47 = 21.27% (21%)

To the river....

(10x100) / 46 = 21.73% (22%)

The trick then is to just memorize these percentages for a range of outs: perhaps 4 - 15 outs.

Thank you.

freddydr87 said:

I have to tell you, thats the hand i love the most,but by the other hand i have louse or drop lots off chips paying for flushes that never came,still i allways try them,but my ex tells me to fold,so im trying to educate my emotions to only pay 1 to 5% off my stack looking the flush

Click to expand...

I'm a sucker for chasing flush draws & growing the pot. One of the largest areas I need improvement in first.

Dark Army said:

Okay now, that makes perfect sense. The calculation is based upon unseen cards.....not what's left in the deck. I was very unclear about that. I thought it was okay to calculate using remaining cards because I have always assumed that the odds of your outs (Or the majority of your outs) remaining in the deck is higher than the odds of them being dealt. I just saw it as a functional percentage and not an exact percentage.

I've been doing it wrong for quite some time. Although, it hasn't hurt me.

I won my first poker tournament in Vegas over 10 years ago. Since then, my live game results have been good. Not often do I find myself in a situation where I really need to be comparing pot odds to my out odds. The general rule I've followed is that if I have 8 or more outs and my opponent bets weak into the pot (Somewhere near 25% of the pot), the call is probably good. When the bet is too close to 1/2 the pot, I'm gonna need like 15 outs.

So, the numbers are actually 47 and 46. That makes things fairly simple considering it no longer matters how many people are at the table. #facepalm.

There's 10 outs that could hit on the turn with 47 unseen cards.

(10x100) / 47 = 21.27% (21%)

To the river....

(10x100) / 46 = 21.73% (22%)

The trick then is to just memorize these percentages for a range of outs: perhaps 4 - 15 outs.

Thank you.

Click to expand...

Yes, now you understand the concept correctly.

A good way to easily estimate your chances of hitting your outs is too use something they called the "2-4 Rule". Simply what it means is you take your number of outs, say you have 9 outs to hit a flush draw. You take your number of outs and times it by 2 to get your equity for the next street, or times it by 4 if you want to know your chances of hitting on both streets (Turn and River). This would estimate a 9-out flush draw to hit 18% of the time on the Turn on 36% on both Turn/River combined. It isn't exact of course, but its an easy way to estimate it quickly.

This article explains the 2-4 rule very well. This information will be very useful for the times when you are facing a call and want to know if its worth playing your draw given the pot odds.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/pot-odds/4-2/

I have heard it said, "In some ways it takes more skill to play limit poker than no limit poker." The above discussion serves to illustrate that point. In no limit poker, all a less skilled player needs to do is over bet the pot to make it less likely to get drawn out on. This makes calling the over bet a bad play, and good players don't often make bad plays. Of course, if the "bad play" pays off, the payoff is much more lucrative, but a bad play none the less. In limit poker, the situation of calling a bet simply because you have pot odds comes up much more often. Therefore, a good poker player who knows how to calculate the odds will make the right decision more often in a limit poker game.

How do you get to the conclusion that the odds of making a flush with just one of your suit on the flop is 3.7 to 1 ?

Someone giving others an F for poker should have realized that your example would mean that the odds of making a flush are BETTER when you just hit one correct suit on the flop.

How can the odds get bigger when you need 2 cards and not one ?

it’s more like 20 to 1 and impossible to get the required pot odds unless you play against dink’s that will open with a 30BB raise to make an1BB continuation bet after the flop....

kraemer said:

How do you get to the conclusion that the odds of making a flush with just one of your suit on the flop is 3.7 to 1 ?

Someone giving others an F for poker should have realized that your example would mean that the odds of making a flush are BETTER when you just hit one correct suit on the flop.

How can the odds get bigger when you need 2 cards and not one ?

it’s more like 20 to 1 and impossible to get the required pot odds unless you play against dink’s that will open with a 30BB raise to make an1BB continuation bet after the flop....

Click to expand...

If you need two spades, how many unseen spades are left after the flop?

10

So whats the probability of getting a spade on the turn?

rigor mortis said:

You are dealt two good suited cards, and you are thinking it;s a possible flush hand.
Scenario 1 : Flop comes down with two of your suited cards and all is well, you have 4/1 (4.2/1 to be pedantic) to make your flush
Scenario 2 : Flop comes down, but with only one of your suited cards. What do you do when it's your turn to bet and your odds are 3.8/1 to play or muck?
Those who said 'fold' get an 'F' for poker. Strangely enough the odds of still making your fush are 3.7/1, while marginal they are still good
OK you need runner, runner, but it can happen

Click to expand...

Bold is incorrect. You have a 3.7:1 chance to make the flush draw on the turn, true, but a flush draw isn't a made hand.

S1: you already have the flush draw on the flop and are now drawing to the flush on 2 streets. You can hit on either to make the flush.

S2: you have to draw to the flush draw first, then the flush. Your odds of making the draw on the turn is 3.7:1, but that's just the draw and not the flush itself. Since you have to hit runner-runner, you have to calculate it as so: (10/47)*(9/46) =~4.07% or ~25:1.

Obviously, if it's checked to you, you can check back and try to pick up some extra equity on the turn of your draw hits. If there is a bet, its often a fold as you're rarely getting the odds to chase runner-runner. Even if you are getting the 3.7:1 odds on the turn, you're only drawing to a draw and not a made hand. Even with implied odds, this is a likely fold unless stacks are super deep. And even then, you have to get paid off to make that a profitable play.

That's why they call it POT odds, you have to calculate.