BuzzKillington
Rock Star
Silver Level
There are (4 2) = 6 combinations of AA hands, divided by the total number of possible hands (52 2) = 1326, we get 6 / 1326 = 0.00452488687.
Now, we have 48 trials, where we only count whether a hand is AA or whether it isn't AA. One has a probability of around ~0.0045. The other 1 - 0.0045. So:
P(X = 6) = (48 6) * 0.0045^6 * (1 - 0.0045)^(48-6) = 8.43152753E-8
Which is a chance of around 8 in 100 million.
escurimX
Rock Star
Silver Level
online has no probability !! follow the standard that the software-controlled game provides ...
You will go far, have a correct time to play and correct bet amount
go at the wrong time and bet wrong value and lose even with AAA (cracked)
I speak because I'm already following this pattern and I'm learning levels that I did not get before
You will go far, have a correct time to play and correct bet amount
go at the wrong time and bet wrong value and lose even with AAA (cracked)
I speak because I'm already following this pattern and I'm learning levels that I did not get before
BuzzKillington
Rock Star
Silver Level
Huh? Even if the software was supposedly "rigged", then everything still obeys the laws of probability.
escurimX
Rock Star
Silver Level
Do you believe that? online has no probability
I threw a hand with AA against the leader on the table ...
Pricipally when I was near the final table you can be sure that you will lose no use whatsoever!
a simple example ... note that most of the times a player has a pair in his hand ... and the flop turns another card equal to a tinca (888) an example ...
Your flush draws "... on the turn or the river will form a flush ...
be you never noticed ... I ask you to notice and you will see that I am not saying nonsense
I believe that live has yes to the propabilidad but on line to follow a line standardized most of the times :call2:
BuzzKillington
Rock Star
Silver Level
No. You can't be sure that you win with AA pre-flop against any random hand. You have 85% equity pre-flop, which means that there is still a 15% chance that you lose against any random hand.
I win most of my hands with AA, but not all of them. I have experienced bad beats as well. But hands like AA are still part of my main source of profit.
These are all my AA hands over the last month:
It is clear that I am in the profit when I have AA. You see some losses, but overall being dealt AA is a big plus. This has little to do with skill. Just get the money in and the profit will come automatically.
N
Napkins420
Rock Star
Silver Level
escurimX
Rock Star
Silver Level
No. You can't be sure that you win with AA pre-flop against any random hand. You have 85% equity pre-flop, which means that there is still a 15% chance that you lose against any random hand.
I win most of my hands with AA, but not all of them. I have experienced bad beats as well. But hands like AA are still part of my main source of profit.
These are all my AA hands over the last month:
It is clear that I am in the profit when I have AA. You see some losses, but overall being dealt AA is a big plus. This has little to do with skill. Just get the money in and the profit will come automatically.
ok okay, but this probability is not worth anything when you have 10 bb and play against an opponent who has 40 bb
you will go with AA and he has in hand 82, guess who will win? I ask you to notice when the tables are drawing to a close ...
You'll notice what I'm talking about.
I watch and play poker live with friends and I say, poker on line is a party full of flush and sequences one after another ... what does not happen when playing with friends, it is not routine you see at the table hands of cards so always
uke:
H
hillydog
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Odds
Thanks for reply buzz but I made an error. —— it was only 5 times in 48. Can you do the math again. (I am clueless at this)
Thanks
Thanks for reply buzz but I made an error. —— it was only 5 times in 48. Can you do the math again. (I am clueless at this)
Thanks
BuzzKillington
Rock Star
Silver Level
If I go all-in with AA and the villain goes all-in with 86, then they need at least two pair or better to beat me. In addition, I have a few outs as well. The statistics are clear about who will win in the long term: AA.
I don't know much about how the hand you are showing was played, but I do know that going all-in at this time is clearly +EV for you. I suspect they hit a straight on the river, but that's just a cooler. More often than not, they will miss the board and you will get paid off.
I don't know much about how the hand you are showing was played, but I do know that going all-in at this time is clearly +EV for you. I suspect they hit a straight on the river, but that's just a cooler. More often than not, they will miss the board and you will get paid off.
BuzzKillington
Rock Star
Silver Level
In your last topic, I calculated the odds for you in the case of 6 hands with KK out of 48 hands. The answer was something in the range of 1 in a billion and will be pretty much the same here. I'd say 1 in 100 or 10 million.
BuzzKillington
Rock Star
Silver Level
If you want to know the precise odds for different scenarios, then just use this formula:
, where n is the number of trials (so 48), r is the number of said hands, and p is the probability of that hand being dealt. In the case of pocket pairs, we had determined that the probability was 0.0045. So, we can simply fill in the formula for being dealt KK five times in 48 trials:
So that's about 1 in 400,000.
, where n is the number of trials (so 48), r is the number of said hands, and p is the probability of that hand being dealt. In the case of pocket pairs, we had determined that the probability was 0.0045. So, we can simply fill in the formula for being dealt KK five times in 48 trials:
Code:
P(X = 5) = (48!)/(5! * 43!)* 0.0045^5 * (1-0.0045)^43 = 0.00000260266So that's about 1 in 400,000.
vinnie
Legend
Silver Level
Actually, for 6 out of 48, we really are asking the odds of 5 out of 47. That is because we're not going to start considering until after the first pair of AA, so it's a given. That's about 415.8k to 1 against.
Your next question (5 in 48) is really 4 in 47. That's only 16.3k to 1 against.
I find it unlikely that both of these happened to you within the same week. It's certainly something that is possible, in the realm of all possible things, but it would be exceptional.
Your next question (5 in 48) is really 4 in 47. That's only 16.3k to 1 against.
I find it unlikely that both of these happened to you within the same week. It's certainly something that is possible, in the realm of all possible things, but it would be exceptional.
escurimX
Rock Star
Silver Level
Do you know what I do not understand in online game? It's the amount of flush and straigth during a tournament ...
regardless of the way I played this hand, after the flop he would not drop his cards.
Watch an online tournament through 8-hour youtube (final table) ... do you know how many flush and straigth you had throughout the tournament? 5!
3 flush and 2 straigth ... online in 1 hour I see more than 10 .. a good part is formed on the river!
friend, these games are extremely difficult in poker, I speak poker game with colleagues here at home and the difference from online to live poker is absurd ...
I see guys playing extremely well ... and loses because the opponent already had a flush formed on the flop, we all know that 70% of you make a mistake on the flop and your opponent is already in with the game won !? Sorry, this is not poker ... it looks like another card game that we play here in brazil (we call it steak) where you win with combinations of cards in the same number and sequences (12345 example)
if they are the 5th and 6th most difficult games in poker because they are the most frequent in the online game?
escurimX
Rock Star
Silver Level
http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zOv39LO5kM
watch!!!
this player must be playing a lot of poker on line ... run with this hand of cards, you coward! played wrong Yes, but live poker is good because of that!
:rock::vollkomme:girlshit: