MrSticker Playing 50nl (in Hand Replayer) w/ Comments from Icemonkey9 (Crazy Hand)

icemonkey9

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Only a 22MB download, about 30 minutes, MOV format.

[broken link~tb]
 
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Stick66

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BUMP

You gotta check out the crazy QQ hand a few minutes in. I even used PokerStove on screen to help try to figure it out.
 
zachvac

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Got it dled on my computer, should watch tonight or tomorrow and will comment.
 
Mase31683

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Watching now:

10:03 - I say "Why!?!?! out loud same time as Ice. I'm glad Ice is there to explain. You HAVE to lead with those pp's and the biggest reason is that you take control. Then you cbet, and yeah sometimes he has an Ace or JJ or whatever, and then after you cbet and get resistance you're looking to check it down. But that cbet is sooooo +EV there.

16:34 - lol naw not too interesting.

17:33 - Okay, since you're saying unknown I'm gonna try and play this one out with my no knowledge of opponnents. Prolly skewed a bit just cuz I know something crazy's going to happen, but oh well. Wow, okay after the 3bet and smooth call I'm kinda nervous. I'm going to call behind, knowing that the short stack is committed, likely shoving the flop. So we'll have position by checking, and seeing how the other 2 react to his shove then determine how we're doing.

19:00 - In terms of the squeeze, wow...I don't know. If we go pot, we're pumping in about $20 and basically committing ourselves now. Besides that, the play is so strong against the action that's occured, it really seems likely to polarize the opponnent's playable range to exactly the hands we don't want to go up against. QQ's good, but I don't think I wanna just shove it all in just yet. PokerStove, 15% is probably too wide. If he's tight 15% might be his range, but his UTG range is probably tighter still.

I'll be back to the madness after food
 
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Mase31683

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Gah, got timed out from being able to change my post. Here's the everything. I did kind of a play by play. When I saw something going on, I'd pause and type my thoughts before continuing on, so that I didn't get biased by knowing what's going on. I liked the QQ hand, definitely some thought involved there.

Watching now:

10:03 - I say "Why!?!?! out loud same time as Ice. I'm glad Ice is there to explain. You HAVE to lead with those pp's and the biggest reason is that you take control. Then you cbet, and yeah sometimes he has an Ace or JJ or whatever, and then after you cbet and get resistance you're looking to check it down. But that cbet is sooooo +EV there.

16:34 - lol naw not too interesting.

17:33 - Okay, since you're saying unknown I'm gonna try and play this one out with my no knowledge of opponnents. Prolly skewed a bit just cuz I know something crazy's going to happen, but oh well. Wow, okay after the 3bet and smooth call I'm kinda nervous. I'm going to call behind, knowing that the short stack is committed, likely shoving. So we'll have position, seeing how the other 2 react to his shove then determine how we're doing.

19:00 - In terms of the squeeze, wow...I don't know. If we go pot, we're pumping in about $20 and basically committing ourselves now. Besides that, the play is so strong against the action that's occured, it really seems likely to polarize the opponnent's playable range to exactly the hands we don't want to go up against. QQ's good, but I don't think I wanna just shove it all in just yet. PokerStove, 15% is probably too wide. If he's tight 15% might be his range, but his UTG range is probably tighter still.

24:21 - I'm seriously considering just shoving now. There's a LOT of money in the pot and it's going to be real hard to get away from this after the flop. After the shove from the UTG player, the 3better and other caller just flat call. I might be wrong, but that looks weak to me. The only guy who could really have it is Kooul. If he had AA he might just flat it hoping to get more callers then shove the flop. But KK HAS to shove now and AA is very likely to. The other guy's dead money cuz he has to shove here if he's got better than our QQ.
Even if his 3bet range is 3%, which I'm counting as TT+ and AK, we're ahead. So with all the dead money that's in there now, just shove it in, as it's likely to get in after the flop anyway.

WOW, as soon as I typed that, I hit play and Ice says, now 3 hours later shove this. Ice I swear to god we're the same player, lol.
You've said you're going to flat this. What this means is that you're accepting that you might not have the best hand. That being said, what are you going to do if the flop comes and there are no A's or K's? Probably get it in right? What do you lose to now? AA and KK, but now also anything that hit a set, annnnnnnd if the K or A does come you're hands are tied. Do you really want to shove the rest of your stack in there without even having top pair? Hard to say. PLUS you're going to be playing oop. A whole bunch of not great stuff.

26:00 - This is why calling hurt preflop. That bet could easily be JJ that hates the flop and is like damn, maybe this'll work. That's my guess JJ. You're gonna love this, I say flat it. I want to get our stacks in here. In my mind there's a good chance he doesn't really have that king, I think he had a solid pocket pair. But if we shove here, he's folding cuz now he "knows" we have the king. Flat it, check the turn, if he bets, it'll probably be a shove, snap call. If he checks behind, make another $12 bet back at him on the river assuming it's not an ace and maybe he'll call, but that's probably all the extra value you can hope for if he doesn't shove it in himself.
29:00 - Wow!!!! I didn't think that light at all. A7 blows me away for sure, I was pretty on with the other guy. 88-JJ is all the same in that spot, one overcard. Crazy hand definitely, that was fun to play through.

33:54 - I don't think the river bet's too good here, I was pulling for you to check it. You bet pot on turn when the jack hit and he called it. If he's got a jack the only one he's likely to have that you beat is JQ. The river slams that one. JT JQ and JA are now all ahead of you. Seems really marginal at best, I'd prefer to check it.

36:14 - Same kind of deal to me. After meeting resistance on the flop, you only have top pair. Betting the turn's bloating the pot. I know 5 million people are gonna go BUT THE FLUSH DRAW!!!! Yeah he could have that, but there's lots of other stuff he could have too. He's either killing us, or we're killing him at this point. If he's got AK, 98, or some oddball K9 hand, we're drawing to 3 outs. But if he's got KJ, KT, TT, JJ, QQ, he's drawing super thin. That turn bet starts to build a really big pot when we've got not a really big hand, and that's usually trouble. I'm checking the turn for pot control. I honestly would probably fold this bet. I know I'm getting 3:1, but so does he. Now another class of hands beats us, any hand involving the nut flush draw. He really shouldn't be betting here unless he's pretty strong.

Good stuff, thanks for that. I like analyzing.
 
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BelgoSuisse

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downloading now. will try to comment later
 
BelgoSuisse

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First Hand: AhKh with flush draw and overs, i always reraise this and stack on the flop.

About raising pocket pairs in EP: depends on how aggressive the table is. It's a great move unless people reraise and squeeze too regularly and force you to muck preflop because the pot gets too big for set mining.

13:30. I would certainly 3bet AJ preflop.

15:40. I'd certainly raise the 55 preflop.

17:15. you got a great hand in a prime squeezing spot, wtf are you waiting for? Just make it $22 and call a shove. Or shove yourself. And when the others flat call $12.4, then it's an insta-shove with fistpump. And all the money in the pot, you got to call at least one bet postflop.
 
BelgoSuisse

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34:00. That's the kind of hand where you should have won the hand by raising preflop and cbetting.

Overall you're very passive preflop which puts you in a lot of nasty situations postflop. I think you should go play 6max for a while to get more aggression into your game.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Last hand. I don't see the need to cbet and certainly not the need to double barrel. This is a hand you want to bring to showdown cheaply which you can having position.
 
Stick66

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Well thanks so far, guys. It is great to get other perspectives on this stuff. My eyes have really been opened to some new concepts. Still waiting for Zach for even more.

But I gotta tell ya, thinking about all this stuff is so much easier after the fact when you don't have an online hand timer beepin' at ya. LOL
 
zachvac

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First hand, I shove the flop but when you don't shove flop and you hit TPTK I would definitely just check turn considering stack sizes. If he checks behind on turn you can still shove river, there are absolutely 0 scare cards and you're stacking off here 100% no matter what hits.

But yeah, shove flop all day imo just because you have most likely 9 outs for the flush draw, and probably 6 more outs for TPTK, which is 15 outs. Obviously once in a while he has a set here or something and some outs are not clean, but even considering that I think when we add in FE (because although we have only slightly better than 50% equity against lots of hands we win 100% of the pot when they fold) we can shove profitably. I do like the small flop raise, but I like it because then you can shove over the top of a raise and possibly get some fold equity instead of letting him shove if you pot it.



AQo, I'd consider floating flop, but fold's pretty much standard. Only reason I'd consider floating it is that most made hands on that drawy of a board would probably bet closer to pot. Then if a blank comes we can bet or raise turn and if he calls turn even fire river if a blank hits. This is almost always suited connectors that hit the flop somewhat and has a draw or something. Like I said, most of the time I'd fold here I think but floating here once in a while wouldn't be horrible.

On flatting ranges, most flatting ranges are suited connectors and pocket pairs in general. In general Axx and Kxx (and even better AKx) are the best flops to cbet. Bad flops are 89T-type flops because it kills his middle PPs/suited connectors range.

AJo in BB, played fine imo. I'd fold to a normal-sized raise preflop there but flatting's fine I think with the minraise.

Those are some quick phone calls :p

On the QQ hand, I'm typing this before I see results, so it won't be tainted by w/e they show.

First off, with unknowns I insta-fold that preflop. The fact that the crazy guy 3-bet may tilt it a bit towards shoving, but I still think this is a fold, especially if manuel is a good solid player as well as Marcus. Marcus is a ss and raises from UTG. Both of these point to an EXTREMELY strong range (most people raise low PPs from EP, a shortstack probably doesn't). Then the crazy guy 3-bets, which could mean nothing in terms of ranges. Then Manuel CALLS. This is extreme strength as he's seen a super-tight range raise and another player 3-bet. Even if he doesn't expect the crazy guy to have a hand much when he 3-bets, he's still prepared to play for stacks against Marcus and the crazy guy probably isn't folding much so he has to have a hand that at least plays decently well.

And the comment about AA is incorrect imo. Especially considering Marcus is always shoving I know I would personally flat AA there. Try to trap in one of the next 3 before raising over the shove Marcus is going to put in. If for some reason he folds, it's not a big deal as there's enough money in the pot to deny set mining odds. Also he's going to gain value from the crazy guy and he has position in the hand unless Knight calls. I think actually at $5 set mining is just barely +ev but the fact that the crazy guy and you probably commit some more money even on flops you don't set (ie you're not check-folding if a 259r flop comes are you?) make his play +ev even if marcus folds. Since he likely won't fold but instead will shove then it's definitely good to flat because it gets you and the crazy guy to commit more.

You talk about a smallish bet as it's $11 into $50, but it's not, it's $11 into 0. This is never a bluff (at least never SHOULD be a bluff, because bluffing into an empty pot is pointless). He also gets 3 streets. If he puts $11 here, you have $25 left and it sets up to easily get all the money in by the river. No reason for him to bet any more here whether it's a bluff or value bet.

Also @Sticker, when you mention the field, remember to keep in mind the odds you get. If you're 40% vs. "the field" but there are 2 opponents, "the field" puts in twice as much money as you and you want to put money in with this situation. If you have a 40% chance to win but only have to put in 1/3 of the money, you easily take it. Also with pokerstove the side pot's done, there's no reason to include the other guy's hand in the equity calculation on the current pot. Now you could get complicated and use a separate calculation on sacrificed equity for folding, but in determining whether to call/fold most of it should be whether you are beating the one other player you have to beat to win that money.

WOW that was insanely bad by the player who bet the flop, and wtf is Mr. shortstack doing raise-shoving A7s UTG? Those are both super-bad. But I stand by my statement that folding preflop is good and that postflop the fold is fine I think.


KJ vs. AJ, I just check-call river. Not sure why you bet it as nothing worse is really calling and nothing better folding, although if you check he checks behind some better hands and bluffs some worse hands.

KQ on monotone board, not quite sure why you're betting flop there. I do agree with river bet though, you don't beat anything, seems his river bet is a blocking bet or a bet that wants value after having the flush. Just don't get the flop and turn bets.
 
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