Misconception about Preflop Equity?

Thecontinuer

Thecontinuer

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Hey now,

As a result of a recent post I made about profitability I've started to spend a lot of time looking at equity. Before hand I've sort of "known" certain plays are better than others, but now I'm really diving into exactly how/why they are and I've come across a question I want to ask...


I'm often faced with a Cash Game scenario where the pot is open raised, hero 3-Bets with KK and then there's a 100BB shove from one opponent.


In this situation, it's fair to assume that villain has AA, but we don't KNOW villain has AA... If we have no prior knowledge of play and no stats to work with, is KK a hand that we can call the shove with?


I'm sure this question is asked often..


Do we just assume villain has AA and move on, or does the math dictate that we can get it in and feel fairly confident about our move? I am learning that in poker we now play our opponents range of hands and not necessarily one hand.


Thanks.
 
vinnie

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Well, let's get some bet sizes out there.

UTG opens to 3xbb
Hero 3-bets to 9xbb
everyone else including both blinds fold
UTG shoves to 100xbb and Hero has that covered.

Pot = 110.5xbb and hero needs to call 91xbb. You need about 45% equity to call here. You have about 18%. If your opponent shows you that they hold AA, then I guess you have to fold.

If they could have QQ+, you have to call. A range of AK,KK+ is also a call. If it is AA 90% of the time, and a random hand from the top 6% of hands the other 10% of the time, it's a call. If there is more money in the pot, or you need to call less, you will be more inclined to call.

It's complicated. This is also a weird spot. Usually, you don't face a raise that is 5-times a pot sized bet. There's other sorts of action. And, typically, by the time you can be certain you are against AA, there is too much money to fold.

In practice, never fold KK pre-flop. Just don't do it. You are much more likely to be making a mistake by folding than by calling.
 
This Fish Chums

This Fish Chums

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In practice, never fold KK pre-flop. Just don't do it. You are much more likely to be making a mistake by folding than by calling.

This is a cash game where you can presumably buy back in, but what about a situation where the hero (me) was too greedy and played his entire bankroll in a single cash game. Should the hero still call?
 
Trillian

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KK is a shove vs. unkown. Only fold if villain has 3bet value of less than 1%. That's why you should always play with proper br management, so you dont have to be scared.
 
Lorpugo

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kk is a call he can do it wirh qq or ak
 
Thecontinuer

Thecontinuer

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Thank you gentlemen I appreciate your input.I have since been able to use this in game, I've seen several spots where I'd normally have folded.


Thanks again.
 
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alextepi

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really interesting even like the quotes
 
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Mikeloti13

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Problem is you dont know much about him. Say that he is average player. The question is will average player go all in with aces or just make a 4-bet. Also depends on his play earlier on that table. If he was tight, 4-bet would look extremely strong. I dont think anyone would go all in with aces, but in certain situations,maybe like 10% of the time someone would make that play. I would in 99% of the time make the call.
 
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AG04CAS

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I am never folding KK ever pre to any raise.

Even against nitty mcnitty who plays only 1% gives me a range of QQ+.


KK is the second highest premium starting hand and against a 1% range its 50/50


Yes you will run into AA even then I will win 18 times out of 100 :D even more if you play on Sky where you are guaranteed to beat AA no matter what you play:eek::eek::eek::eek:
 
vinnie

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This is a cash game where you can presumably buy back in, but what about a situation where the hero (me) was too greedy and played his entire bankroll in a single cash game. Should the hero still call?

Never have so much of your bankroll on the table that you would be unable to make the correct play. If this was your entire bankroll, you should still call. And, if you lose, that is the way it goes. Folding here would be the second major mistake you made. You made the first one when you put everything on one table.*

*Note: If the table was the lowest available buy-in, and you were forced to sit with everything, there was nothing you could do. You don't have a proper bankroll. You will have to accept that you are going to have to gamble and face a high risk of ruin. That's the nature of not being rolled for the games you have to play in. You still call. You call joyously. It is an excellent opportunity to double your entire bankroll.
 
Robochick

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Just had a similar situation. I had KK, 3 way pot, one villain had KK and one other had 33. A 3 did not hit and I split the pot with the other KK.

Okay, not exactly on point.
 
gabpoker

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I am only folding KK if I know the player very well and know he is only shoving AA. Today just had KK raised to 2.5 BB, Villain 3bet to 14BB, I 4 bet to 45BB and he shoved for 100BB. I called and Villain had AA. And...
I got lucky with a K on the flop
 
blueskies

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What? Villain has AA? LOL. Not sure what player you play with would shove AA in that spot.

You are the one who should shove since you will be playing OOP and don't think about it.
 
H

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Yes you will run into AA even then I will win 18 times out of 100 :D even more if you play on Sky where you are guaranteed to beat AA no matter what you play:eek::eek::eek::eek:



love it just to put sky out there again AQs the other day flop came 7Q3 villian short stacked so i bet enough on the flop to put him AI he calls with K9s turn T river J gotta love sky
 
polote21

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kk is always a call the victory percentage is very high even against AA
 
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