Maths help

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888jamie888

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Slightly confused about how to use maths to work out whether it is worth making a bet or calling one.

I understand about outs and the rules of 4 and 2. Which gives you the chances of getting a winning hand. Is this the same as equity?
However how do you apply this to hand? If someone raises, how do you work out whether it would be a profitable call given your probability of hitting an out?Thanks for any help.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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You don't seem to differentiate between clean outs and those that aren't. Clean outs are the ones that give you the nuts. Other outs improve your hand but still leave the possibility that someone else has has you beat or can redraw on you.
 
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888jamie888

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Arjonius said:
You don't seem to differentiate between clean outs and those that aren't. Clean outs are the ones that give you the nuts. Other outs improve your hand but still leave the possibility that someone else has has you beat or can redraw on you.
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I'd count outs as cards that would probably put you in a winning position.
If I had A2, I wouldn't count the 3 other 2's as outs. If that's what you mean?
 
aa88wildbill

aa88wildbill

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If I have a hand that can win possibly, I would put the read of a player above the math of the situation.
 
imafin

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jamie,

go down to your nearest barns and noble, hit up the poker book section. there you will find a huge selection of authors that have put together everything you will need to improve your ability to better read what is happening during the play. understanding and crunching numbers is a very important part of the game.
 
Arjonius

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888jamie888 said:
I'd count outs as cards that would probably put you in a winning position.
If I had A2, I wouldn't count the 3 other 2's as outs. If that's what you mean?
Click to expand...

There's a concept called discounted or partial outs. Many times, cards that improve your hand don't give you the nuts, but still give you some chance to win the hand. So for example, if you're drawing to a flush that would be the effective nuts, you can count 9 outs, all of which are clean.

But if there's a chance you'll make your flush and still lose, those 9 outs are worth less. The tricky part is gauging how much less, but as an example, let's say you're drawing to a non-nut flush, and that even when you hit it, you think you'll lose 1/3 of the time. In calculating the odds, you'd use 6 outs instead of 9.
 
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888jamie888

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Arjonius said:
There's a concept called discounted or partial outs. Many times, cards that improve your hand don't give you the nuts, but still give you some chance to win the hand. So for example, if you're drawing to a flush that would be the effective nuts, you can count 9 outs, all of which are clean.

But if there's a chance you'll make your flush and still lose, those 9 outs are worth less. The tricky part is gauging how much less, but as an example, let's say you're drawing to a non-nut flush, and that even when you hit it, you think you'll lose 1/3 of the time. In calculating the odds, you'd use 6 outs instead of 9.
Click to expand...

Hmmm,interesting.
On another note, if your break even percentage is greater than your prob. of hitting an out then folding would be a good move right?
 
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dathomie

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888jamie888 said:
Hmmm,interesting.
On another note, if your break even percentage is greater than your prob. of hitting an out then folding would be a good move right?
Click to expand...

Usually but you have to factor in implied odds as well.
 
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