Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar
LOL are you looking at his cards? Say you didnt know if he had overcards or an over pair.. In general would this situation be a call or fold?
Personally I think it would be a fold
The "math" he was referring to assumed that the tight guy would shove with overpairs or 6 possible unpaired hands. If you're up against that range, it's a call. Of course you can't see his cards. But assuming he has unpaired overs or an overpair in that range, it's a nice call.
You win about 20% of the times he has an overpair, you win more than half of the times he has two overs. Since there are a lot more overs you need roughly 1.5 to 1 to make it a +EV call. You're getting 2:1, which is substantially better.
If it was a loose player he could be doing this with "any ace" type hands and it's an insta-call.
Basically Harringon broke it down to 150 different card combinations the guy could have and if you played them all out, and you can expect to win 62 times and lose 88 times.
So yes, you should expect to lost this pot most of the time (88 times out of 150) but since you're getting 2:1 on your money and you're not losing twice as often as you win, it's a +EV call.
In other words, it's like getting $2 if you win and losing $1 if you lose. You lose 88 times for -$88, and win 62 times for +$124 so over the long run you're up $36. (Same principle, not the exact percentages though)