Originally Posted by unkownn
So if I hold Js10s...
The flop is Kd Qs 2c
...my enemy shoves all in.
You have 8 outs, the four Aces and the four nines.
On the flop we multiply those outs by 4 (and add 1% to be closer)
. So you are 33% to hit one of those outs by the river.
So you win about 1 out of 3 times. 1 win for every 2 losses.
Now we compare what it costs to call with how much there is to win in the pot:
If the current pot is twice as big as what you have to put in, you are about even. (Your call is 33% of the current pot size)
If the current pot is more than 2x what you need to put in to call, you are making a call with a positive long-term earning. (Your call is more than 33% of the current pot size)
If the current pot is less than 2x what you need to put in to call, you are making a call with a negative long-term earning. (Your call is less than 33% of the current pot size)
Likewise, let's say you have Js10s on a Ks Qs 2c flop.
Now you have 9 spades, 3 non-spade Aces, and 3 non-spade 9's for a total of 15 outs.
15 X 4 = 60
You are close to 60% to win, even though you don't even have a pair. Ship it!