Lightbulb moment - speculative hands

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baudib1

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This is probably not earth-shattering information to anyone, but I was thinking about speculative hands and how they play vs. certain ranges. It came up when I was discussing a hand history where someone called an apparent nit UTG raise with 85s in MP at a 9-handed table.

This was an obviously terrible play for many reasons, but he requested an explanation and I tried to make it as detailed as possible. For one, it's not even a great speculative hand; two-gappers don't flop nearly as well as connectors.

Let's ignore that, though, and pretend we have JTs instead. JTs is obviously a terrific drawing hand. We should still fold, however.

Let's make some assumptions. The nit raises around 4% UTG. That's something like TT-AA or 99-AA, AK, AQs. We're crushed by that range, and we should probably fold AQs, too.

What should we call with vs. the nit? We can call with our own nut range obviously (AK and big pairs) and we should call with all pocket pairs.

We'd much rather have 22 in this spot than JT.


1. JTs plays better in a multiway pot. When we make nut hands, which we will quite often with this hand, we want a lot of people in the pot, we want multiple callers and odds to draw to nut straights as well as flushes.
2. Even though JTs is a much more playable hand than 22, we're just going to lose money here.

When we call pre, we are losing money. Our implied odds aren't that great. Here's the problem: We aren't outflopping the nit's strong UTG range very often. However, we hit sooooo many flops with this hand, we're continuing past the flop quite often, often making second-best hands that payoff the nit or losing money when we chase because, ZOMG implied odds.

Everyone gives lip service to, "let's see a flop and try to flop a monster." Monsters rarely flop. But you will hit a top pair with a T or J quite often. Are you just folding top pair on the flop? Honestly, you probably aren't, and if you're calling and folding top pair, you probably made a mistake somewhere in the hand. That's more money we lose.

We're going to flop some equity quite often -- that's the real killer. The flop comes 982r, we aren't going anywhere. That's fine, but we aren't a favorite to win, either. If we flop a flush draw, we aren't going anywhere. That's more money we lose, and even when we make our flush we aren't guaranteed to get paid off by the nit.

You might think it's odd that we'd rather have 22 here. If you run JTs vs. TT+/AQs+/AK, you find we have 32% equity. 22 only has 30% equity.

Ah, yes. But that's hot-cold equity. I have a program for iphone called PkrCruncher, and it gives you equities street by street.

Going to the flop, JTs only has 16% equity vs. TT+/AQs+/AK. 22 has 34% equity!

Setmining works because all you have to do is see a flop. If you flop a deuce, you pretty much have the nuts and are a huge favorite to win. Often your hand will be concealed, unlike flopping or turning a flush, where the nit will often be wary. There's a good chance we win a big pot here.

Conversely, if a LAGier player running like 27/24 with a high steal rate opens from CO, we would much rather have JTs than 22.

Why?

Because we are going to flop a good chunk of equity with JTs much more often than 22. Again, this may be counter-intuitive if you play around with Poker Stove and work out ranges.

Let's say the aggro CO opens around 40% from that position. To visualize this, this could be a range of something like 22-AA, A4o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+,T9o, suited connectors 54s+, all suited Ax, all suited Kx, most suited Qx and Jx and some gappers like T8s.

Again, our hot-cold equity tells a startling story. Against this range, 22 is a 61% favorite. JTs is merely 35%. A pretty huge difference.

The problem is that 22 is not going to be playable postflop. We are better off 3-betting or folding. CO is aggressive so he is going to put heat on us on a lot of flops and we'll have to fold the best hand a lot. Furthermore, even when we hit a set it's not ideal because his range is so wide it's unlikely he gets stacks in -- unless he flops a monster that has us beat or has good equity against us.

JTs plays much, much better here. For starters, we are going to be good if we make top pair quite a bit, a lot more than vs. the nit's UTG range. Secondly, we will flop 30+% equity so often that we can play aggressively.

eg.
LAG raises with A7hh, we call with JTss. Flop is 9c7dKs. He c-bets, we raise!

If this were the nit UTG betting here, raising would be suicidal because we'd get 3-bet on the flop a ton by AK, KK, and AA, which constitutes a large chunk of his range. Here, vs. CO's weak range, we can play aggressively with our double-gutter. He's not likely to play back at us with the best hand because he was just stealing and probably hoping mostly for a A7x or 77x or two-heart board.

We can also float vs. constant cbettors on a ton of boards. Flop is 973r, he bets, we call with just a gutshot and overs, and take the pot away from him even if we don't improve if he shows weakness.

In short:

Small pocket pairs play better as nutcamping hands vs. strong ranges
. We flop a set (essentially the nuts), we raise and get it in vs. KK.

Suited connectors play better as semibluffing and floating hands vs. weak ranges. We flop a draw or a pair a lot, which is obviously not as good as flopping a set, but we can continue past the flop on a lot more boards or play it aggressively against someone who doesn't have much very often.
 
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PotluckXXI

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WOW

Your hand analysis is so far over my head I barely comprehend it. You talk about the 22 bet as being better than J10 in a situation with a nit, but this seems to be solely a strong arm force fold pre-flop technique, 2's almost always get crushed so why does it matter what you have? If his range is high pairs or AK, AQ, or A anything suited then your only "safe" boards are those that have no cards higher than 10 and no flush possibility. So he calls you with AK to your 22 board comes up 3,7,9 rainbow you bet say 3x pot he folds? what does it matter if you have J10? A or K comes on flop then you fold. Am I interpreting correctly?
 
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baudib1

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not at all. We're not calling with 22 to make him fold AK, because most of his range is NOT high cards. it's huge pairs that he's not folding ever.

JTs flops equity on more boards than 22.

however, it doesn't flop enough often enough. It flops just enough to end up paying off a strong range.

You'd rather have 22 because you can play your hand much easier postflop. You hit a set and you get the money in or you fold.

With JT you hit a piece of the board so often and have no idea where you are; when you have a set you are pretty damn sure you have the best hand.

JTs plays better against weaker ranges because we can play our equity much more aggressively.
 
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Maybe if a nit raises UTG you should just fold?
 
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kanselau

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What should we call with vs. the nit? We can call with our own nut range obviously (AK and big pairs) and we should call with all pocket pairs.

.
I can see what you are saying here and it makes alot of sense. If we flop a set against the nit we are preety much garanted action as his range doesnt even have to hit the flop alot of the time or if a A or K flops. If we dont hit a set were out of there. What im wondering about though is it a profitable play in the long run , we arent going to flop a set very often , so wouldnt it be better just folding the small pairs to a nit whos raising UTG? Unless you are protecting your blinds or creating an image I cannot see how calling is a profitable play here? eg 50/100 blinds nit raises to 300 ( pot 450 ) we are getting 2.25 pot odds to call . chances of floping a set is 7.5 to 1 ?
 
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baudib1

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Setmining in tournaments is bad, this is about cash games though.
 
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orangepeeleo

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I can see what you are saying here and it makes alot of sense. If we flop a set against the nit we are preety much garanted action as his range doesnt even have to hit the flop alot of the time or if a A or K flops. If we dont hit a set were out of there. What im wondering about though is it a profitable play in the long run , we arent going to flop a set very often , so wouldnt it be better just folding the small pairs to a nit whos raising UTG? Unless you are protecting your blinds or creating an image I cannot see how calling is a profitable play here? eg 50/100 blinds nit raises to 300 ( pot 450 ) we are getting 2.25 pot odds to call . chances of floping a set is 7.5 to 1 ?

In cash games usually its OK to call in order to set mine when effective stacks are 12x the intial open or more, i.e., UTG opens to 15c, if you both have stacks of $1.80 then a call is OK, generally though you only want to be calling if there is 15-20x the initial open, to make up for the times where say UTG opens with AK, flop comes 26Tr and he c/f's. Your not getting stacks in everytime you flop a set, so make sure that when you do get stacks in you've got very good implied odds from your preflop call.
 
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baudib1

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Small pocket pairs are mostly unplayable in MTTs except:

1. In the first blind levels of tournaments that start out with 100 BB stacks.
2. when you are looking to open shove or resteal shove with some fold equity.
3. The rare times it limps around with 3-4 people in and you have like 40 BBs+ with 22 on the BTN or SB.

Other than that, small pairs are pretty unprofitable to play in MTTs; you shouldn't open with them, you shouldn't call with them to play a flop.

There are also times in cash games when you stop playing small pocket pairs...when you get to be 500+ BBs deep with several competent people at the table, DUCY?
 
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great thread baudib.... It explains a pretty simple concept in a great way :) I understand alot about folding the J10s pre, blockers, top pair can hurt etc (basically what you already wrote) but do you also fold hands like 54s? surely people arent going to be losing any more money with TP there, and will only really lose much money when we get coolered/hit draws... To add to this, do nits at 50nl+ start actually thinking (fold overpairs ever?) because if they do this could also merge your range, and let you basically just shove any draw and set to their cbet?
 
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Nice post. Too bad its lost on quite a few people.

And I still think suited connectors are worth a play against strong ranges, but you're right about them being way over rated.

And yes, you have to treat top pair with JT against a nit differently. But I love playing in any pot where my opponent's range is face up.
 
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Sorry to go off track here Baudib since its a cash thread but you give solid advise so I would apreciate your advise here
Other than that, small pairs are pretty unprofitable to play in MTTs; you shouldn't open with them, you shouldn't call with them to play a flop.

There are also times in cash games when you stop playing small pocket pairs...when you get to be 500+ BBs deep with several competent people at the table, DUCY?
So what do you do if you pick up 55 on the button in a torney with 50bb , first to act, fold? I usualy will fold small pairs in early position , but when in middle and late pos Im mostly raising when first to act either to take the blinds , or play in position. I will also limp with other limpers in the pot. And will ocassionally call a raise if both myself and oponent have 50+ bb. Is there some major leaks in my game I dont know about?
Why do you stop playing small pp with 500+ bb stack?
 
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baudib1

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great thread baudib.... It explains a pretty simple concept in a great way :) I understand alot about folding the J10s pre, blockers, top pair can hurt etc (basically what you already wrote) but do you also fold hands like 54s? surely people arent going to be losing any more money with TP there, and will only really lose much money when we get coolered/hit draws... To add to this, do nits at 50nl+ start actually thinking (fold overpairs ever?) because if they do this could also merge your range, and let you basically just shove any draw and set to their cbet?

No there are pretty much no situations where you should call with 54 instead of JT.

I'd recommend spending some time thinking about what type of hand you are likely to flop with various hands.

AA -- you will flop an overpair or top set 100% of the time. Obviously, that's a good hand to have in either case.

KK -- you flop an overpair or set most of the time.

etc.

AKs -- You will flop top pair top kicker 1/3 of the time, which is obviously a great hand. You will flop a flush draw with overcards or a pair or a gutshot a decent amount of the time, which is also a great hand. Once in a great while you'll flop a straight, two pair, trips or a boat. Other times you'll flop a gutshot with overs,which is a pretty good hand. Other times you'll miss completely and still have the best hand if no one else connected.

JTs -- you flop a pair 1/3 of the time, and a decent amount of the time it will be top pair; that's a decent hand. You'll flop a straight (which will always be the nut straight) or a flush 2% of the time. You'll flop a flush draw 11% of the time and an 8-out straight draw 10.5% of the time. A decent amount of the time you'll flop some sort of combo with a pair or backdoor draw.

54s -- Like JTs, except your pairs are almost never top pair; higher chance of your flopped two pair being counterfeited by the board and less chance your flush draw is good.
 
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baudib1

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Sorry to go off track here Baudib since its a cash thread but you give solid advise so I would apreciate your advise here

So what do you do if you pick up 55 on the button in a torney with 50bb , first to act, fold? I usualy will fold small pairs in early position , but when in middle and late pos Im mostly raising when first to act either to take the blinds , or play in position. I will also limp with other limpers in the pot. And will ocassionally call a raise if both myself and oponent have 50+ bb. Is there some major leaks in my game I dont know about?
Why do you stop playing small pp with 500+ bb stack?

50 BBs is ok, I'm talking about most tournament situations where you have like 20-30 BBs. On the BTN you can probably raise ATC in some situations.

When you have over 500 bbs the chances of being oversetted is so catastrophic that small pairs start to lose value and suited connectors/Axs that make the nuts are more valuable.
 
the lab man

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not at all. We're not calling with 22 to make him fold AK, because most of his range is NOT high cards. it's huge pairs that he's not folding ever.

JTs flops equity on more boards than 22.

however, it doesn't flop enough often enough. It flops just enough to end up paying off a strong range.

You'd rather have 22 because you can play your hand much easier postflop. You hit a set and you get the money in or you fold.

With JT you hit a piece of the board so often and have no idea where you are; when you have a set you are pretty damn sure you have the best hand.

JTs plays better against weaker ranges because we can play our equity much more aggressively.
This makes great sense 2 2 is way easier to decide what to do on the flop
 
WVHillbilly

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When you have over 500 bbs the chances of being oversetted is so catastrophic that small pairs start to lose value and suited connectors/Axs that make the nuts are more valuable.

You can still play those small pairs when you're 500BB deep. You just have to be willing to fold a set if a solid player wants to play for stacks.

Nice thread btw.
 
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When you have over 500 bbs the chances of being oversetted is so catastrophic that small pairs start to lose value and suited connectors/Axs that make the nuts are more valuable.
yea preety hard to get away from a set unless the board is really co-ordinated. But this situation would be preety rare as usually there is only one or two stacks with 500+ bb on the one table and we are usually playing the smaller stacks.
Would you totally abandon playing small pp when against oponents with 500+bb or would it be read dependant.
For example you have a reasnable LAG in Co (with 500+bb) whos raising alot and you wake up with 22 on the button , better to setmine or 3 bet or just fold . Obviously we are going to mix it up alittle but which is more profitable.
Im also asuming we are still playing against weak players (500+bb) with small pp, especialy in position as the chance of getting paid off will generally be much bigger.
 
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baudib1

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would not 3-bet 22 in that spot ever, no one is folding 500 bbs deep.
 
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So if your nit raises UTG, you flat on the button with 22 and the flop contains a 2 but it also contains an A, K or Q.

If they have AK then happy days, but presumably they could also have AA, KK or QQ?
 
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baudib1

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Coolers really aren't relevant to any strategy or theory but


Board: 2h Ks Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.374% 51.37% 00.00% 7629 0.00 { 2d2s }
Hand 1: 48.626% 48.63% 00.00% 7221 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

Board: 2h Ac 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.370% 77.57% 00.80% 11519 119.00 { 2d2s }
Hand 1: 21.630% 20.83% 00.80% 3093 119.00 { AA, AKs, AKo }
 
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Coolers really aren't relevant to any strategy or theory
Actually it was addressing concerns I would have in that situation, and wondering how you would play it. So I'm assuming from the reply that you would play it exactly the same, and if you lost you would just put it down to variance.
 
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baudib1

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C9 I hear what you're saying about people playing ranges face up, but I got sick of paying that guy off so I was thinking of ways to do that.

It's a real bummer when you can't play your good draws aggressively. I used to think well, maybe I can get this nit to fold by shoving the turn on a semibluff and then be like wtf, "my range there is like sets and combo draws, how do you call with AA?" solution: just have sets there.
 
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baudib1

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and as always, your postflop skill and specific read on villain should determine how wide you can call pre.

I think it's instructive though to know how certain types of hands play vs. different ranges.
 
F4STFORW4RD

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Playing small pocket pairs is something that has always given me the heebie jeebies, so it is great to actually have some detailed analysis of how they can potentially be useful in certain circumstances.

Thanks for a thought-provoking thread :)
 
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