IN DEPTH QUESTIONS ABOUT SET MINING(long)

JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

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First off i will tell yall what i consider small pair,middle pair,an high pair.Small pair 22-77 i'm in the pot with these hands 80% of the time to set mine an 20% of the time to steal the blinds in postion.Middle pair 88-jj 85-90% of the time to take down the blinds an limpers preflop an the rest to set mine vs a rocky as hell tag player that i'm sure is ahead pre.High pair qq-aa reason to play these i don't have to say.

I have read on this forum several times that everyone in the pot needs to have at least 10x the amount the raise was for set mining to make a profit in the long run.I just read Harrington On Cash 1 an he says he likes every one to have at least 20x the ammount was preflop.
Question #1 Who is right on this?

I just reviewed an averaged my bb\per hand with small pairs(22-77) average was .276 bb\per hand.
Question #2 is this good,bad,or average?

I've read on here an every where else for that matter that chances of hitting a set or 1/7 (please correct me if i am wrong).Ok so counting the rake into thought here.
Question #3 Once we hit a set to we have to make 10x the ammount preflop every time to show a profit?If not what is the x ammount of the oringinal bet to we have to make to show a profit in the long run.

Ok my next question depends some what on #3 i belive.It has to do with single players,vs muti players in the pot.For the sake of argument that were playing 10nl were on the button everyone folds to the cuttoff he raise 3x blinds we have 33 (i know we could raise here vs a lag but lets just say we are calling).Ok we call right now we are up against one oppent an in postion but whats the odds that we get paid off here if we hit?I'm not sure but in most random hands i doubt it.He raise 30c we called flop k39 he cbets 40-50c we call are raise is he putting any more money in the pot on average?

Question#4 Should i quit set mining so much vs one player?
 
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WVHillbilly

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I look for stack sizes to be 15 times the bet amount before I call to set mine.

#2 I think you're reading that number wrong. It's likely .276bb/hand not 100. Mine is .34bb/hand (17BB/100) but I have no idea what's good or bad on average.

#3 I don't really understand the question but if you're truly only set mining you want your opponents range to be strong and ideally you'll have position so he can't play pot control.

#3b Because you have position and his range is weak you're going to need to do some things to win a few pots without improving to make calling with small pairs there profitable.

#4 No. Worry about ranges and stack sizes and you'll be fine.
 
JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

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Yeah i caught that wv bb\per hand not bb\100 i edited it.Btw thx for the input
 
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Lofwyr

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I'm in the process of reading Harrington on Cash Games. What he says about stack sizes is that heads up, he likes villain to have at least 20 times the raise amount and preferably 25-30. Multi-way I'd say you reduce that number as the villain count goes up.

As for how much money you "need" to make...it's not quite that simple. In most cases you'll flop a set and win a small-medium pot. In fewer of them you have the opportunity to take the opponent's stack. Making sure the guy you're up against has a minimum of xxbb in his stack is a good rule of thumb to ensure that over time you'll show profit. If you know the player will stack off light, you can play closer expressed/implied odds. Tighter/smarter and you might want to avoid trying unless the stack is 30x raise or more.
 
Weregoat

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Flopping a set is a stacking opportunity. The trick is you want your villain to have a hand like TpTk as well as hit your set. The same holds true for when you have two pair, however your opponent is much more live if he has TpTk and you have bottom 2.

Position adds a lot, as does stack size. Personally, I like to take just about any PP to a flop that hasn't been 3-bet, and a raise from a TAG player OOP against me with a deep stack spells delicious.

While I'm sure some people much smarter than I could tell you what stack sizes and bet-sizes and the ratio would be most profitable, and if you're looking for a mathmatical answer, I believe you are making a mistake.

There are certain guidelines to follow, and every hand in poker is independant of itself, so the guidelines go out the window and personal playstyle comes into effect...

Against a short-stack it's not worth set-mining, but that doesn't mean I won't call an all-in shove from a short stack with a PP figuring I'm a coinflip at best, provided my stack can take the hit...

Then if I stack him, either the sit opens up, or he buys in for more chips, and it's a minimal risk to me. (Say a 25BB stack, for instance, I raise from position, BB jams, folded around, etc.)

But that's not to say that every time I get jammed on from the BTN or CO with 66 I call... But I'm digressing from the point.

All in all the guidelines are there to help players get an understanding of optimizing your game. I am admittedly a tight player in tournaments, and very loose in cash games (with high effective stacks, anyway). So in a tournament I'll be showing up to flops with hands like 77-22 a lot less than I would in cash games. Ultimately it's part of your style, and you have to decide what works for you.

I think the math works out to 1 out of 7 or 8 times you'll flop a set (assuming nobody holds one of your outs). I certainly have no problem raising from position with hands like 44, but seldom will I 3-bet or show up to a 3-bet pot unless it's multiway and the action is likely to be closed behind me (with deepstacks).

Playing 100+BB poker, I am much more likely to show up to raised pots with lower PPs, and on god-awful flops that don't improve me or offer me any draws, I'll bet to see if I'm ahead, and sometimes take down a modest pot just with the strength of my hand (or the lack of strength my opponents display).

Bottom line: I don't believe there is a right answer. I'm sure there's some awesome algorithm out there to determine maximum profit margine, but if we all play by algorithms preflop... Well, I personally find that a bad decision.
 
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