Originally Posted by Amroth
That odds are of hitting a set in the flop with a pair in your hole cards. To calculate that you can do it this way:
- Probability of NOT hitting a set in the flop.
P1 = (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) = 0,8824489795918367
I'll explain this:
The deck has 52 cards, you know only 2 of them.
The probability of the 1st card in the flop to hit your set is 2/50
Next card 2/49
Those events are not independent so you cant add them, instead, you have to do it the way i've done.
- Probability of Hitting the set:
P2 = 1 - P1 = 0,1175510204081633 = 11.755%
- Now, to change % into odds you can use this:
Odds = (100-%)/%
So Odds: (100-11.755)/11.755 = 7.5
So odds: 7.5/1
Post needs more love. I love a good bit of statistics
But yeah OP you rarely get the immediate odds to call to set mine but when you call you know there is a good chance the pot will be built on the flop when you hit (usually through a c-bet).
The odds you need vary from player to player. A loose player is less likely to pay you off because he has a wide range so implied odds are lower and immediate odds need to be higher to compensate. On the contrary, if you know a player is only playing AA and will stack off on any flop, you can call a big portion of your stack (up to about 12%) pre flop as when you hit you'll get paid off 100% of the time.
In reality peoples ranges are wider than AA which is why the "5/10" rule is created.
If the bet is 5% or less of your stack and you have a PP you should call because set mining will be profitable. If the raise is between 5% and 10% of your stack you should call depending on how tight (and therefore likely to stack off post flop) villian is.