If villain is on the draw, bet at least 100% of pot?

R

RickAversion

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 2, 2013
Total posts
597
Chips
0
Say you know Villain is on a draw.
8 or 9 outs is about 33% pot equity.

I want to bet an amount that is too expensive to call, right?
You want him to either fold, or call with poor EV (overpaying to call)

Some examples: Villain has 33% pot equity.
If I bet 50% of pot, he gets 3:1 or 25% pot odds. He calls.
If I bet 75% of pot, he gets 7:3. or 30%. He calls.
If I bet 100% of pot, he gets 2:1 or 33%. Coin flip.
If I bet 150% of pot, he gets 5:3 or 38%. He folds. Or pays too much to call.
If I bet 200% of pot, he gets 3:2 or 40%. He folds. Or pays too much to call.

So, to push him off the draw (or make a costly call), I should bet at least 100% of pot?

If so, I think I have been value betting more like 50% and giving cheap odds for those on the draw.
 
D

DunningKruger

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Total posts
1,030
Chips
0
Say you know Villain is on a draw.
8 or 9 outs is about 33% pot equity.

Only if there are two cards to come, but there is a round of betting prior to each of those cards (and then another one afterward). Players playing draws often have to call multiple bets to do so.

I want to bet an amount that is too expensive to call, right?

You want them to make mistakes. A bad player correctly folding their drawing hand isn't necessarily the most profitable outcome. If they're not going to fold however and you've more than 50% equity in the pot, bet the house, the farm, the kids, etc.

If your opponent has 15 outs to beat you and one card to try and hit it, he'll win approximately one third of the time he's still in the hand when that card peels. Betting full pot in that case would make his call breakeven but only if he doesn't win a penny on the next round of betting. If you pay off even a small percentage of the pot after you've been outdrawn then it's a profitable call for your opponent to make. That's the thing about many drawing hands. Inferior made hands are much more likely to pay them off when they hit than a busted draw is to pay off a made hand when it misses. Heh.
 
TheDuke177

TheDuke177

Rising Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 15, 2014
Total posts
18
Chips
0
So assuming 9 outs, your opponent has roughly 33% equity/ 2:1 drawing odds, BUT this is assuming that he gets to see both of the next two cards. In reality, calling your bet is only allowing him to see one more card (with the exception of calling a shove), and for this his equity is a little less than %20 to the turn with a very slight improvement from turn to river. If you bet half the pot and he calls, he will miss 80% of the time. Since his pot odds are 3:1, his break even odds are %25, so he would have to hit his flush on the next card %25 percent of the time just to break even, assuming he gets no extra chips after since you know he is drawing to the flush. Even if you only bet one quarter of the pot, he needs a minimum of 9 outs to be able to call and see the next card without lost money. You would need to have 17 outs to break even in the long run calling a pot sized bet with only a guarantee of seeing one more card.


Like Kruger said, you actually start profiting more from an opponent that tries to draw all the way to the river against terrible pot odds versus one who folds to a bet on the flop. The magnitude of the error on their part outweighs the times when they do hit the flush.

I think the ultimate answer to how much you should bet against an opponent to get a certain action out of them depends on who you are facing though.
 
B

BlakeBrown

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 17, 2014
Total posts
173
Chips
0
If you know the player is on the draw and is not a calling station, ship it :marchmell:
 
micromachine

micromachine

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Total posts
5,770
Chips
0
Like DK said you need to think about his chances of making his hand on the NEXT card, say you have top pair on the flop and your opponent flopped a flush draw his chances of making his hand on the turn are only approx 16-18% with 8-9 outs, so really calling even a 50% pot-sized bet with 25% pot odds is a mistake for him.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Total posts
3,167
Chips
0
The question is kind of problematic since you seldom know that someone is on a draw. Far more often, the opponent's range includes other hands. So most of the time, if you play as if the opponent is drawing, you're ignoring part of his range.
 
DaBrowner

DaBrowner

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 21, 2013
Total posts
65
Chips
0
very good point Arjonius, villian could have hit 2nd pair and is flatting to see if pot can be taken down. maybe?
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Total posts
3,167
Chips
0
It's not uncommon to flat 2nd pair, either flopped or pockets. Or two overs, which is still drawing but with fewer outs than to a flush or straight.
 
U

Ubercroz

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2009
Total posts
653
Chips
0
1: They have a 17% chance of getting their draw on each card individually, about 33% to get it by the river.

2: If you bet a pot size bet on the flop and ANY SIZE BET on the turn then they will have made a mistake when they call the turn and missed their draw.

3: Therefore you can bet less than the pot (1/2 the pot) and still have it be a mistake for them to call the flop when you also bet the turn for around the same value.
 
H

hffjd2000

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
2,329
Chips
0
I agree, that 33% is for two cards to come. So for a coin flip, its not pot size bet but half of it.
Please correct me if Im wrong. Thanks.
 
R

RickAversion

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 2, 2013
Total posts
597
Chips
0
Ok, so if only thinking about the next hand, they have an 18% chance.
So, as long as they have stacks deep enough for the next card also,
betting 50% is fine to call them off the draw (or make an expensive call)
50% bet gives them 3:1 or 25%. If they are a calling station fish always looking to hit draws, then I can go to 60% or more, giving them worse odds.
 
H

hffjd2000

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
2,329
Chips
0
Correct. I would consider 2/3pot or 66.67% the minimum.
If too many calling station fishes swimming, Ill bet the pot.
Goodluck...
 
T0mmmi

T0mmmi

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Total posts
152
Chips
0
Say you know Villain is on a draw.
8 or 9 outs is about 33% pot equity.

I want to bet an amount that is too expensive to call, right?
You want him to either fold, or call with poor EV (overpaying to call)

Some examples: Villain has 33% pot equity.
If I bet 50% of pot, he gets 3:1 or 25% pot odds. He calls.
If I bet 75% of pot, he gets 7:3. or 30%. He calls.
If I bet 100% of pot, he gets 2:1 or 33%. Coin flip.
If I bet 150% of pot, he gets 5:3 or 38%. He folds. Or pays too much to call.
If I bet 200% of pot, he gets 3:2 or 40%. He folds. Or pays too much to call.

So, to push him off the draw (or make a costly call), I should bet at least 100% of pot?

If so, I think I have been value betting more like 50% and giving cheap odds for those on the draw.

Hi !

In my opinion the Raise 75% of the Pot should be right amount ... so he will overpaid if he wants to get this draw.

But be careful.... If you are playing against someone that is on heat...he is gonna call any raise and the worst is FISH or Aggressive Calling Station who do not understand odds and percentages.

When playing types of players as FISHes or Calling Stations the only thing that in my opinion work is shoving AI ...to make statement that even FISH understand.

Yes I fully understand that it might be risky but when taking into account that you are gonna win in 75-80% when they call and they are gonna fold at least 50% times.... This actually is working on those types of players.

The only group of players that it is not gonna work at all are BINGO players, who do not play poker but they are dependable on LUCK factor only.


If you could share your experience that would be great !

Good Luck @TAbles !
 
R

RickAversion

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 2, 2013
Total posts
597
Chips
0
One point: At the proper bad odds given to villain, isn't it that you don't care if he calls or folds? If you're at 75% bet of pot, if he calls, you're happy, b/c he overpaid. He may win, or he may lose, but you're EV+ ...You don't want him to fold if it's EV- for him.
 
Top