If villain is on the draw, bet at least 100% of pot?
Say you know Villain is on a draw.
8 or 9 outs is about 33% pot equity.
I want to bet an amount that is too expensive to call, right?
You want him to either fold, or call with poor EV (overpaying to call)
Some examples: Villain has 33% pot equity.
If I bet 50% of pot, he gets 3:1 or 25% pot odds
. He calls.
If I bet 75% of pot, he gets 7:3. or 30%. He calls.
If I bet 100% of pot, he gets 2:1 or 33%. Coin flip.
If I bet 150% of pot, he gets 5:3 or 38%. He folds. Or pays too much to call.
If I bet 200% of pot, he gets 3:2 or 40%. He folds. Or pays too much to call.
So, to push him off the draw (or make a costly call), I should bet at least 100% of pot?
If so, I think I have been value betting more like 50% and giving cheap odds for those on the draw.