If hand probability was an illusion, what would poker come down to?

R

Rational Madman

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Do you know why if Phil Ivey plays against a statistical math genius, he will win more often than the genius? It is because he spots natural preferences within the playstyle of the opponent and either exploits or devolves them.

What is exploitation and devolution in Poker? It is about weaknesses and strengths of the opponent. If Ivey's opponent is very tight, he doesn't immediately 'take advantage' and bluff them, this is pure exploitation and is not going to profit in the long run as the tight player will become even tighter and more cunning to let you/phil ivey bet into them. Instead of trying to loosen the tight player up, Phil Ivey would become pretty much equal in tightness of starting hands. What does this do? It NEGATES, it DEVOLVES the advantage of playing tight against him because it is making the 'strength' to be a basic requirement. Then if the person is very strong with understanding math at post-flop, turn and is very good at river play, Phil Ivey will immediately play backwards to what they excel against. A good river bluffer and turn overbetter need simply be underplayed regularly (and this helps more if you underplayed the preflop too which is why I don't understand why people separate preflop and post-flop play because they are directly connected in executing bluffs and baits). If the stats genius simply plays straightfoward TAG poker and semi-bluffs at worst, Ivey will THEN begin to bluff harder at the post-flop but not preflop. Why is this? Preflop, overbetting against a naturally tight player turns them being tight into direct strength. If you then continue to play as tight and honest as them post-flop you can argue that you are not letting their 'strength' be a strength but actually here is where exploitation begins to take place. Loosening up with only 2 out of 7 cards' worth of information against a tight player lets them control the bigger pots and smaller pots from the get go by folding or not folding without risking anything until they need to. Loosening up with 5 out of the 7 cards' worth of information against a tight player now is more profitable as more often than not they are not hitting top pair or anythign significant and sinc they have majority information, their tight nature works against them to generate fear whereas if they learn that you bet big preflop no matter what they know they knly know 2 of 7 cards and that taking strategic leaps of faith there is necessary.

That being said, this doesn't mean Ivey is flawless. When he begins to exploit the other, the other should shapeshift their playstyle post-flop to exploit his would-be exploitation. If he is bluffing to exploit their honesty, they can use passivity to profit. If he is using underbetting to combat their loose aggression post-flop, they can simply begin betting less and this is why at the top level of poker you find much more betting happening but much less quantity of blinds in the bets because if they get known for betting too much, or fearing bets altogether they will be abused like nobody's business.

Exploit your opponent's flaws but ALSO ensure that you work to turn their strengths into as worthless as possible.

Shark-slayers aren't card geniuses, they are not psychology geniuses either (like movies try to portray them) instead they are brilliant at comprehending the strengths and weaknesses of their opponent's playstyle and immediately turning the strengths into as little benefit as possible and turning the flaws into as much of an error in playstyle as they can.
 
Andrew Popov

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This is the greatest misconception in online poker, which, however, keeps the whole process. If it were not for this myth, the fish would not come into the game. :D
 
F

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Poker business is business.... Luck is a major factor....
The pretty girls, slick advertizements, promotions, are all designed to make money for the wealthy business people.
The worse news is when these popular sites are caught cheating the players... Plus, the pitfalls make poker a difficult game to master... I play for fun.... I work for an income. I am not deceived....
 
R

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This is the greatest misconception in online poker, which, however, keeps the whole process. If it were not for this myth, the fish would not come into the game. :D
Instead of making some mocking comment, please explain why it's a myth (which it's not).
 
R

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Poker business is business.... Luck is a major factor....
The pretty girls, slick advertizements, promotions, are all designed to make money for the wealthy business people.
The worse news is when these popular sites are caught cheating the players... Plus, the pitfalls make poker a difficult game to master... I play for fun.... I work for an income. I am not deceived....
You are deceived. You can profit regularly and securely in poker if you flip your style to your opponent's in the right ways.
 
Andrew Popov

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Well, I'll try to explain more. There are two ways of dealing with online poker. Both are unprovable from the point of view of the player, and therefore both have the right to exist.

First option: Online poker is a completely fair game, and RNG really determines the layout of the cards. In this case, mathematics wins. The player that better understands the mathematical patterns and the theory of probability - will win. Of course not always, but in a fairly large number of situations, players who do not know about poker math.

The second option: Online poker is not completely fair game, RNG is unreliable (regulated by the organizer in order to extract more profit from the business). In this case, the math stops working, but all the other methods of the game you mentioned are the same. You just play for fun and win just enough, the institution will allow. Regardless of the effort.

That's all. In the first variant, the mathematician wins. In the second - mathematics is not defeated, it's just somewhere far away in another Galaxy.

Why did I call the myth what you wrote? Because the mathematics are owned by very few people actually. This is a very small part of those who play online. And this part of the people is too good for poker rooms to extract their profits at their expense. The profit of poker companies is generated by two very different groups of players - those who play just for fun. And those who really want to win, but have no idea about mathematics, but rely on their luck, cunning, some fictional theories and signs ... They are the ones that form the multimillion-dollar profits of companies in this business.

All of the above is not accepted to discuss publicly - it's bad for business. You just need to know this and consider if you want to play a plus.

P.S. Note that I have not written anything yet about Phil Ivey himself. :D
His love of bluffs is also exactly explatable in reality. Just for this you need to have strong eggs and a very large bankroll. A simple player often has the first, but very rarely - the second. Good luck to you! :cool:
 
R

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Well, I'll try to explain more. There are two ways of dealing with online poker. Both are unprovable from the point of view of the player, and therefore both have the right to exist.

First option: Online poker is a completely fair game, and RNG really determines the layout of the cards. In this case, mathematics wins. The player that better understands the mathematical patterns and the theory of probability - will win. Of course not always, but in a fairly large number of situations, players who do not know about poker math.

The second option: Online poker is not completely fair game, RNG is unreliable (regulated by the organizer in order to extract more profit from the business). In this case, the math stops working, but all the other methods of the game you mentioned are the same. You just play for fun and win just enough, the institution will allow. Regardless of the effort.

That's all. In the first variant, the mathematician wins. In the second - mathematics is not defeated, it's just somewhere far away in another Galaxy.

Why did I call the myth what you wrote? Because the mathematics are owned by very few people actually. This is a very small part of those who play online. And this part of the people is too good for poker rooms to extract their profits at their expense. The profit of poker companies is generated by two very different groups of players - those who play just for fun. And those who really want to win, but have no idea about mathematics, but rely on their luck, cunning, some fictional theories and signs ... They are the ones that form the multimillion-dollar profits of companies in this business.

All of the above is not accepted to discuss publicly - it's bad for business. You just need to know this and consider if you want to play a plus.

P.S. Note that I have not written anything yet about Phil Ivey himself. :D
His love of bluffs is also exactly explatable in reality. Just for this you need to have strong eggs and a very large bankroll. A simple player often has the first, but very rarely - the second. Good luck to you! :cool:
Poker is not played against the house. Poker companies make as much money from a mathematical winning player as a bad one if they play the same hand amount at the same stakes.
 
Andrew Popov

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Poker is not played against the house. Poker companies make as much money from a mathematical winning player as a bad one if they play the same hand amount at the same stakes.

This "if" changes everything. And if you take nuts in nuts more often - there will be more big banks and more rake. And if you help a weak player a little at the expense of stronger ones, then strong ones will take less money out of the room, and the weak will be more fun. Which will also increase the amount of rake and hence the profits of the company ... If everything was so simple. :D
 
R

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This "if" changes everything. And if you take nuts in nuts more often - there will be more big banks and more rake. And if you help a weak player a little at the expense of stronger ones, then strong ones will take less money out of the room, and the weak will be more fun. Which will also increase the amount of rake and hence the profits of the company ... If everything was so simple. :D

Hilarious
 
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I am sure if Phil Ivey play with Super computer , equipped with GTO for 1000 BB deep stack , head up

Phil Ivey will lose money... after 400K random hands
 
R

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I am sure if Phil Ivey play with Super computer , equipped with GTO for 1000 BB deep stack , head up

Phil Ivey will lose money... after 400K random hands

No, the computer will be too easy to bluff with small bets
 
R

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Not computer but super computer

if you don't know what is super computer, just google it yourself.
It wouldn't be able to think against bluffing
 
Lorpugo

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in gto there sure is bluffing and computers do it with the exact frequences. read a little bit about gto indifference principle and so before state computers cant bluff. "If you think the math is not important, you are using the wrong math" Cris "Jesus" Ferguson.
 
Lorpugo

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according your post if i play vs ivey heads up and play every single hand all in his adjustment will be to play all in too to beat me. and vice versa if i play too tight only aa he will adjust and play aa too... ridiculous and more important against maths
 
R

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in gto there sure is bluffing and computers do it with the exact frequences. read a little bit about gto indifference principle and so before state computers cant bluff. "If you think the math is not important, you are using the wrong math" Cris "Jesus" Ferguson.
I regularly beat grinding bot programs by bluffing and baiting them. They are easy to spot.
 
R

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according your post if i play vs ivey heads up and play every single hand all in his adjustment will be to play all in too to beat me. and vice versa if i play too tight only aa he will adjust and play aa too... ridiculous and more important against maths
Yes this is both correct.
 
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