I just thought of an issue with the odds

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matiusaa

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I thought that I correctly calculated the odds of flush and straight draws on the flop, but I realized I was doing it wrong. Once a flush draw or an opened ended straight draw on the flop, it will complete roughly 1 out of 3 times to the river. What I thought is that if I had a 33% chance of completing the draw, I could call a 33% size bet of the pot, but I think this is wrong. For it to be rentable you have to bet 33% of the pot adding the bets on the flop and turn, so calling a 33%pot bet on the flop is wrong, unless we are sure that we will see a free river. The odds are calculated or should be calculated per street. Lets say that is you have a flush draw on the flop, you should pay a 16,6% pot size betin order for the odds to let you stay on the pot, and then could have another try on the turn.

Is this right what I am saying, or what do you thing??
 
Propane Goat

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I remember there being some disagreement over this in a thread several months ago, but my understanding is that on the flop, you should only use the odds of hitting your draw with one card to come unless you're going to go all in. The reason is that you don't know how much, if any, you're going to have to pay to see the river. Therefore, you should calculate odds on the turn based on one card to come, not two.
 
John A

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This is based on my post? :)

Get my free odds and outs trainer dude.
 
Poker Orifice

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I remember there being some disagreement over this in a thread several months ago, but my understanding is that on the flop, you should only use the odds of hitting your draw with one card to come unless you're going to go all in. The reason is that you don't know how much, if any, you're going to have to pay to see the river. Therefore, you should calculate odds on the turn based on one card to come, not two.
mmm... you might want to find that thread & read over what I wrote in it.
Just an idea.
 
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