How far will you go on a draw?

Bovinity · Jun 15, 2010

Hey folks.

So I ran into a lot of odd situations last night against really aggressive players, and it resulted in a pretty big mess for me in the end.

Basically, I'm wondering how aggressively I should be pursuing draws. Here's an example from my session last night, for instance. (I'm at work, no hand history right now, sorry.)

Villian and I are both deep stacked at about $4 each at 2NL (So, 200bb). Villian is pretty loose (~45 VP). I'm in position.

I'm holding KhQh.

Flop comes down QsJhTh.

So I've got top pair, a open-end straight draw and a king-high flush draw.

At this point villian shoves all-in.

Is this a hand you'd pursue given the stack sizes, or just lay it down and fight another day? I know about pot odds and such, but against an aggressive player like this I'd pretty much never play a draw ever if I went by just the pot odds calculation.

It should come as no surprise that I lost a lot of hands like this last night (Draws with tons of outs in big pots) and lost a lot of cash in the process. I know not to chase things like inside straight draws, but I'm inclined to go after bigger draws like this.

Dewmz · Jun 15, 2010

Just figured I'd point out you had a royal flush draw.. or a straight flush draw..not just open ended straight, or king high flush.

Bovinity · Jun 15, 2010

Yeah, there's the unlikely straight flushes in there too. It was a pretty monstrous drawing hand. I also had the possible queen set, two pair, all those fun things. (Unfortunately the end result was the turn was garbage and the river was a 4...giving his pocket 4's a set.)

TPC · Jun 15, 2010

Top pair open ended straight and flush draws. I'm getting that all in every time. You're actually ahead in that spot more than you are behind.

Misofer · Jun 15, 2010

There's just only few things he can hold to beat you. And you have a lot of outs and better percentage than him. Your hand can improve with a lot of cards, it's a perfect situation for me at least.

Gunn_Slinger · Jun 15, 2010

wow...i'd love to have that hand every flop
love him to shove every time....so few hand beat you and your ahead of almost every hand...wow

forsakenone · Jun 17, 2010

i am praying he goes all in, i snap call and i won't be sorry i lose here because it was the right call.

Bovinity · Jun 17, 2010

Thanks for the replies, folks.

I just have a hard time deciding how aggressive to be with draws. Not all situations are as optimal as this one, so I often ask myself, "Am I missing too many opportunites? Am I chasing too much?"

Gotta find a good balance, I guess.

fortuna · Jun 18, 2010

with that hand, I would go all-in as well...

appaz86 · Jun 19, 2010

awesome drawing hand, huge amounts of outs as well as the fact you had top pair!

easy snap call, you were ahead (as i suspected) until he sucked out on the river

good call, bad luck

Kuberr · Jun 19, 2010

With that kind of draw, I might call. But I don't like banking on draws to win hands. I think with each hand, you need to calculate the odds and decide based on that. If you have above a 55% chance of winning, I'd take it.

TPC · Jun 19, 2010

When does he not have above a 55% in winning in this scenario?

Suited Frenzy · Jun 19, 2010

Bovinity said:
Yeah, there's the unlikely straight flushes in there too. It was a pretty monstrous drawing hand. I also had the possible queen set, two pair, all those fun things. (Unfortunately the end result was the turn was garbage and the river was a 4...giving his pocket 4's a set.)

All I have to say is this...

Regardless of the outcome of the hand (the results), this situation is not even 1 to think about. It's a snap call every time IMO.

engman · Jun 19, 2010

I would have called, because there are so many outs and you already have a made hand.

engman · Jun 19, 2010

You just got unlucky for a guy to push with that flop with pair fours. He played it like a donkey. Don't worry about it. Good luck next time on your future tournaments.

Weregoat · Jun 20, 2010

Count your outs. If he has a made hand, at best a set, you have nine outs to a flush (two of which give you an immortal hand), another six to a straight, and you can catch a running two to make a better full house than him. Roughly that leaves you with fifteen outs, and another out and a half or so to catch your runners, we'll round down to 16. Use our rule of fours here, and we'll complete our hand roughly 62.23% of the time.

Up against a made straight, at worst AhKx, we're looking at roughly 8 to a flush, 3 to chop with a straight, and our bottom end straight doesn't help us. And if we hit a heart on the turn, we need to dodge 7 outs. Remember that's our worst case scenario. Against two pair type hands, like JT, we're a gigantic favorite with our 9 flush outs, our 6 straight outs, and another whopping five to complete trips or a better two pair, so a good 20 outs, rule of fours we're going to complete a better hand way too often for the rule of fours to apply.

My favorite draw I've ever experienced involved me flopping an open-ended combo draw at an action table (forced buy-in of 33 BBs, meh), and 3 people stacking off on the flop with my KdQd no pair 15 outs, with 3 people stacking off after I called. I missed them both, but that's exactly the kind of opportunity I want to get my money in.

@ TPC, his best holdings could be AhKx. I'm not sure how odds work with redraws, so somebody with pokerstove would have to run that one. But it eats up one of our flush outs and three of our straight outs, leaving us with just the flush draw and a 12% chance to chop the pot, provided he doesn't redraw to the better flush. I'd put villain at a little better than 55% on that hand, roughly 60-65% maybe? But that is worse case scenario, miracle flop of broadway with him holding the one card that beats our flush.

I guess another one we could look at is him holding Ah9h, which eats both of our str8 flush outs, and nine of our flush outs, giving us just four outs to a straight, but at this point in time we're ahead anyway, since he has no pair, and he's actually the one behind with 7 outs for a flush, 3 Ks for broadway (to which we have a redraw on, albeit slim), and another 3 As for a better pair (which we have a better redraw on, with 5 outs), 3 8s for the low straight, which we could still catch a 9 or an A against, etc. Poker stove Ah9h vs KhQh on QsJhTh board anyone?

Guessing we're about a 60-65% favorite.

Weregoat · Jun 20, 2010

Also, I'd be happy to stack off here at any point in time, unless villain showed a set of Q's, then I'd actually count my pot odds, and 200 BBs deep, I'd consider going for it just for the huge upswing (bad poker, don't listen to me)

slycbnew · Jun 20, 2010

I actually think this is closer than it would be at 100bb's deep (snap call), 200bb's deep I'd want some evidence that Villain is spazzy enough to open shove a range wide enough to get to 55% equity. If his range is narrower, say straights, KK, and sets, we're flipping.

Of course, open shoving the flop in itself may be enough evidence that he's spazzy enough to have a wider range here. And I'm a nit, so...

dwolfg · Jun 20, 2010

top pair queen kicker with open ended straight flush draw is time to declare war. Raise, re-raise, shove. Whatever you have to do to get the most money in possible asap.

Weregoat · Jun 23, 2010

dwolfg said:
top pair queen kicker with open ended straight flush draw is time to declare war. Raise, re-raise, shove. Whatever you have to do to get the most money in possible asap.

It's been a minute (literally) since I re-read the OP, but I'm pretty sure he had top pair second kicker. And the pair was the Q. But yes, you want to get as much money in as you can here. You have a made hand, the biggest draw in the game, as well as second high flush draws, and even against a monster (made straight with the A of our suit, like I said, I'm pretty sure we're a favorite.

Once we brick on the turn our equity goes way down, whiich is why it's very important to get as much in here as possible. Also, once we connect on the turn, our villain gets scared and quits persuing, if he's not all-in already, so we want to get as much in as possible.

NCfoldem · Jun 29, 2010

Not the best example because you have too much stuff there. You might even be ahead with the top pair. So, most of us would call in that particular situation. But, I too do not like draws. Heck. That's like gambling! But I am training myself to call or push or whatever based more on pot odds. Remember, you can't fold your way to victory! Believe me, I've tried (and tried, and tried ... lol).

Bovinity said:
... So I've got top pair, a open-end straight draw and a king-high flush draw. ...

D_russo88 · Jun 29, 2010

If i had that i would've have called him cause there wasn't much that could beat you and didn't you notice that you had a royal flush draw also?

Bovinity · Jun 29, 2010

Well, Royal flush is a straight flush, so not really a different hand entirely.

Grossberger · Jun 29, 2010

Kuberr said:
With that kind of draw, I might call. But I don't like banking on draws to win hands. I think with each hand, you need to calculate the odds and decide based on that. If you have above a 55% chance of winning, I'd take it.

TPC said:
When does he not have above a 55% in winning in this scenario?

Weregoat said:
Count your outs. If he has a made hand, at best a set, you have nine outs to a flush (two of which give you an immortal hand), another six to a straight, and you can catch a running two to make a better full house than him. Roughly that leaves you with fifteen outs, and another out and a half or so to catch your runners, we'll round down to 16. Use our rule of fours here, and we'll complete our hand roughly 62.23% of the time.

Up against a made straight, at worst AhKx, we're looking at roughly 8 to a flush, 3 to chop with a straight, and our bottom end straight doesn't help us. And if we hit a heart on the turn, we need to dodge 7 outs. Remember that's our worst case scenario. Against two pair type hands, like JT, we're a gigantic favorite with our 9 flush outs, our 6 straight outs, and another whopping five to complete trips or a better two pair, so a good 20 outs, rule of fours we're going to complete a better hand way too often for the rule of fours to apply.

My favorite draw I've ever experienced involved me flopping an open-ended combo draw at an action table (forced buy-in of 33 BBs, meh), and 3 people stacking off on the flop with my KdQd no pair 15 outs, with 3 people stacking off after I called. I missed them both, but that's exactly the kind of opportunity I want to get my money in.

@ TPC, his best holdings could be AhKx. I'm not sure how odds work with redraws, so somebody with pokerstove would have to run that one. But it eats up one of our flush outs and three of our straight outs, leaving us with just the flush draw and a 12% chance to chop the pot, provided he doesn't redraw to the better flush. I'd put villain at a little better than 55% on that hand, roughly 60-65% maybe? But that is worse case scenario, miracle flop of broadway with him holding the one card that beats our flush.

I guess another one we could look at is him holding Ah9h, which eats both of our str8 flush outs, and nine of our flush outs, giving us just four outs to a straight, but at this point in time we're ahead anyway, since he has no pair, and he's actually the one behind with 7 outs for a flush, 3 Ks for broadway (to which we have a redraw on, albeit slim), and another 3 As for a better pair (which we have a better redraw on, with 5 outs), 3 8s for the low straight, which we could still catch a 9 or an A against, etc. Poker stove Ah9h vs KhQh on QsJhTh board anyone?

Guessing we're about a 60-65% favorite.

ran through card players odds calculator

these are all the (make sense) hands with the flop being Qs Jh 10h

Kh Qh vs Ah Ax = 51.01> 48.38
Kh Qh vs Ax Ax = 54.34> 45.35
Kh Qh vs Kx Kx = 41.92> 38.38 19.70 tie
Kh Qh vs Qx Qx = 43.94< 54.24
Kh Qh vs Jx Jx = 45.25< 52.93
Kh Qh vs 10x 10x = 45.56< 52.63
Kh Qh vs Ah Kx = 33.03< 56.36 10.61 tie
Kh Qh vs Kx Qx = 36.36> 0.00 63.64 tie
Kh Qh vs 9h 8h = 46.57< 51.62
kh Qh vs Ah 9h = 52.83> 46.26
Kh Qh vs Ah Xh = 65.15> 33.94
Kh Qh vs 9h 8x = 53.94> 44.24
Kh Qh vs 9x 8h = 51.21> 47.27
Kh Qh vs 9x 8x = 54.34> 44.14
Kh Qh vs Qx Jx = 58.18> 39.49
Kh Qh vs jx 10x = 63.54> 34.65
Kh Qh vs Qx 10x = 64.55> 32.83

Pbland · Jun 29, 2010

@bovinity - that would've been a snap call for me. The one big piece of info you gave was that the villain was loose. He could easily be on a draw and be shoving. As everyone here has already showed, there's few hands you're behind. Keep calling in that situation against that type of player.

How far will you go on a draw?

Bovinity

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Dewmz

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Bovinity

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TPC

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Misofer

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Gunn_Slinger

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forsakenone

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Bovinity

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fortuna

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appaz86

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Kuberr

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TPC

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Suited Frenzy

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engman

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engman

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Weregoat

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Weregoat

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slycbnew

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dwolfg

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Weregoat

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NCfoldem

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