Originally Posted by Kuberr
With that kind of draw, I might call. But I don't like banking on draws to win hands. I think with each hand, you need to calculate the odds and decide based on that. If you have above a 55% chance of winning, I'd take it.
Originally Posted by TPC
When does he not have above a 55% in winning in this scenario?
Originally Posted by Weregoat
Count your outs. If he has a made hand, at best a set, you have nine outs to a flush (two of which give you an immortal hand), another six to a straight, and you can catch a running two to make a better full house than him. Roughly that leaves you with fifteen outs, and another out and a half or so to catch your runners, we'll round down to 16. Use our rule of fours here, and we'll complete our hand roughly 62.23% of the time.
Up against a made straight, at worst AhKx, we're looking at roughly 8 to a flush, 3 to chop with a straight, and our bottom end straight doesn't help us. And if we hit a heart on the turn, we need to dodge 7 outs. Remember that's our worst case scenario. Against two pair type hands, like JT, we're a gigantic favorite with our 9 flush outs, our 6 straight outs, and another whopping five to complete trips or a better two pair, so a good 20 outs, rule of fours we're going to complete a better hand way too often for the rule of fours to apply.
My favorite draw I've ever experienced involved me flopping an open-ended combo draw at an action table (forced buy-in of 33 BBs, meh), and 3 people stacking off on the flop with my KdQd no pair 15 outs, with 3 people stacking off after I called. I missed them both, but that's exactly the kind of opportunity I want to get my money in.
@ TPC, his best holdings could be AhKx. I'm not sure how odds work with redraws, so somebody with pokerstove would have to run that one. But it eats up one of our flush outs and three of our straight outs, leaving us with just the flush draw and a 12% chance to chop the pot, provided he doesn't redraw to the better flush. I'd put villain at a little better than 55% on that hand, roughly 60-65% maybe? But that is worse case scenario, miracle flop of broadway with him holding the one card that beats our flush.
I guess another one we could look at is him holding Ah9h, which eats both of our str8 flush outs, and nine of our flush outs, giving us just four outs to a straight, but at this point in time we're ahead anyway, since he has no pair, and he's actually the one behind with 7 outs for a flush, 3 Ks for broadway (to which we have a redraw on, albeit slim), and another 3 As for a better pair (which we have a better redraw on, with 5 outs), 3 8s for the low straight, which we could still catch a 9 or an A against, etc. Poker stove Ah9h vs KhQh on QsJhTh board anyone?
Guessing we're about a 60-65% favorite.
ran through card players odds calculator
these are all the (make sense) hands with the flop being Qs Jh 10h
Kh Qh vs Ah Ax = 51.01> 48.38
Kh Qh vs Ax Ax = 54.34> 45.35
Kh Qh vs Kx Kx = 41.92> 38.38 19.70 tie
Kh Qh vs Qx Qx = 43.94< 54.24
Kh Qh vs Jx Jx = 45.25< 52.93
Kh Qh vs 10x 10x = 45.56< 52.63
Kh Qh vs Ah Kx = 33.03< 56.36 10.61 tie
Kh Qh vs Kx Qx = 36.36> 0.00 63.64 tie
Kh Qh vs 9h 8h = 46.57< 51.62
kh Qh vs Ah 9h = 52.83> 46.26
Kh Qh vs Ah Xh = 65.15> 33.94
Kh Qh vs 9h 8x = 53.94> 44.24
Kh Qh vs 9x 8h = 51.21> 47.27
Kh Qh vs 9x 8x = 54.34> 44.14
Kh Qh vs Qx Jx = 58.18> 39.49
Kh Qh vs jx 10x = 63.54> 34.65
Kh Qh vs Qx 10x = 64.55> 32.83