How to stop questioning your play when running bad?

I am running 8 buy-ins below in my all-in EV, I know it isn't great to go buy, but everytime I am running bad I start changing my play as if I need to correct something and start questioning whether my last wins were simply good runs.

I don't want to wait another 100k hands to find out whether I am playing good or not lol. Is there some kind of program that can calculate luck / variance and like filter it out to get a clearer idea of how profitable you will be longterm?

Man I've been over-adapting for more than a week after a big fall of my own fault. I only do well when I'm not over-doing it, over-adapting or over-anything-else.

It's damn hard because you think you need to do something different. You don't! Easier said than done but seriously, you were doing well... just keep doing it!!

Now I'm going to repeat this same speech to a mirror and see if it sticks.

1) Get second opinions. This is why you talk poker with people whose game you trust.

2) And by get second opinions, I mean don't just post hands. Get someone to look over your hands or sweat you. Its the hands you're not posting that are likely where your leaks are.

3) Identify your leaks using a systematic method, like filters via HEM. If you're leak-finding just by saying "well, I've lost $ in this spot" you may have been doing it right. HEM filters aren't going to lie to you like that, if you have a large enough sample.

4) Drop down, switch games, take a break. Time away & success help build your confidence. So find a way to be successful, and then return.

c9h13no3 said:

1)

3) Identify your leaks using a systematic method, like filters via HEM. If you're leak-finding just by saying "well, I've lost $ in this spot" you may have been doing it right. HEM filters aren't going to lie to you like that, if you have a large enough sample.

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I totally agree with this. There's a whole step on the HEM App Leak Buster that has over 50 custom filters with instructional videos on how to use them. I go through this about every 20k hands to make sure I am playing optimally.

Hmm never heard of this HEM.. Will have to check this out. I've had a few cold streaks of my own as no doubt everyone here has. You just have to work through them. When your running cold, you can't get a hand to hold up no mater how you play it.. Just review your hand histories and see if you've misplayed the hand preflop or post flop and if you need to make adjustments by all means tweek your play. Also make many notes on the players your up against so when the tide changes, you can recoup.

you should always question yourself, its so important really.
if your questioning yourself after what you think was an unlucky session. Then why are you questioning it? Most of the time there will be one or two plays which ur unsure of. clarification through forums or coaching will make you not question the same situation again. So next time it happens you can just shrug and know that the plays you made were correct. Obviously there are MANY situations in poker, thats why going over the usuall spots first is a biggy then focus on the rare spots.

Only way is to quit and regroup.

When you have people hitting runner runner on ya multiple times during the day, that's time to quit. Don't try to overthink things. If what had been working isn't working now, just regroup and get them at a later time.

I've had 3 different fishes call me down with nothing only to hit runner runners (flush, str, then trips). What can I do? I didn't slow play, I didn't try to be cute. They called, which I am SUPPOSED to want. But they are lucky, I am not. So that's that. I had one guy call me with K7 os on an A89 board. I flopped two pairs. I bet and bet. He hits a K on the turn, K on river. I lead out on river, he shoves. I fold. He turns over K7.

As long as you don't alter your game or mentality, then it's fine. Turn off PC and go out for some fun. I am gonna follow my advice now. My luck in the last month in cash has been remarkably bad. Have done well in the few MTTs I've played, but just can't get any momentum in cash.

Unless the beats are making you play scared or crazy, ie. tilting you, then I see no reason to quit. If you are playing within your bankroll, 8 buy-ins, while painful, should not break you.

Remember: lucky streaks are something only seen in hindsight. the only caveat to that is: sometimes when fish run good, they get emboldened, and play more aggressive than they normally would. when this happens, tighten the belt, and don't try to get even with the runner-runner donkeys, just play your game, and know that the odds are always the same, and we really want to get a lot of money in as a big favorite.