How much can you trust a flush on a paired board?

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thefwa

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Many times getting a flush when the board pairs is the reason I get knocked out of a tourney if I'm not too deep, How should you play it? and make sure you're not against a boat?
 
pcgnome

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I'm def folding if the game is Omaha. I ran an example on poker stove. It's 48% for the flush, and 51% for the paired board after the river if the opponent has a 20% calling range. Check your pot odds before you make a bet. It's pretty much a coin flip.
 
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SofaKingCrazy

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For example I am assuming an Ace high flush getting beat by full house or worse yet, quads. Some reasons that this could happen too often is a lack of aggressiveness pre-flop, your table image, and your stack size. You could also be against a maniac and need to exert pot control.

Personally I trust a flush with a paired board. The odds of a better hand are low enough IMO to make this +EV in the long term. If we start to be wary of boats and quads then we could find ourselves folding more winning hands because of being scared of the bet most players would make when hitting trips here.

Aggressive betting pre and post flop could lower the times we lose here but again it comes to our own table image and the types of players left to act behind us.
 
horizon12

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Basically better to play check/fold , because there can be a lot of mistakes...
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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Well obviously you should be cautiously optimistic about the situation you are in.
You cannot have trust on the hand strength just because you have a strong hand. It' not your hand that matters especially when you got the nuts - it's what your opponent's hand strength is what counts.

Suppose you have a full house then your opponent's hand is what matters more as you can get paid only if he too has a medium to strong hand like a straight or flush. If he has nothing we usually won't get much value out of our hand.

So on a paired board if we have a flush we cannot just check or give up our hand that easily especially when opponent bets weak. So we have to look at betsizing here. Also if the opponent shows too much strength then we have to lay down our hand and make a good tight fold. This decision can be more easier if you know your opponent's playing styles. :)
 
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hffjd2000

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Even if the board pairs, I still trust my flush 80% of the time.

There are exemptions of course but most of the time, I will not give it up.
 
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joe777

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One of the option is try to raise 1/4 of the pot,if you got reraised,thats the confirmation for you and you can choose to fold.Also try to observe the table dynamic too.
 
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V6mitg6rewh6re

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If your paying attention to betting patterns and stuff then chances are you will know your oops "Range" slightly . Then you can play the flush on paired board just if they raise your bets then you might be beat but if it's a loose player then you could be good . But if it's a tight player then I'm willing to bet that your beat. All depends on the person your playing and the situation at hand
 
sandund

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Well, the paired board makes it possible for your opponent to have more than just a three of a kind, if is full house that will beat you even if you do make your hand. You should consider the amount of money it would cost to call compared to the amount of money you could win. There are some circumstanstances, but I usually call only bets of ½ of the pot or less.
 
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Mrjamesbond1977

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I trust my flushes most of the time but i do take it slow because sometimes you can run into some bad luck.
 
pcgnome

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Here's a sick hand with a paired board from you tube if you haven't already seen it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0R5BtpITu8#t=24
I honestly think that those straights, and flushes can be awfully difficult to let go. Even the pros have trouble folding them. It was a check on the flop, and all in on the river when the 9 hits. So what do you put the guy on?
 
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bnasp2

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I dont think question was about omaha, so lets consider texas.

Always consider possible range of you opponent. You can quite neglect his pocket pairs, its just too rare to hit full house. So villain needs those 2 cards you see on board. Could he enter game with that?

Anyway:
- if you are deep, try to get to showdown for reasonable price. Usually its not good to go all-in, you will mostly get called only with better hands. I much rather let opponent to go all-in, then call. Its the same result if he has nuts, but much more profit when he doesnt.
- if you are not deep, what is there more to wait? You expect to get better cards then flush with last couple of blinds? You should be very sure about fold (good read, bubble, or some other reason). If you are not sure, shove and hope.
 
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bnasp2

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One more note, its usually bad idea for flush mining if there is paired board. I suppose you know ods a.nd implied odds. The next level are reverse implied odds, its when you get your draw completed and loose anyway (usually whole stack in such case)
 
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lazarsy

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Completed flush is actually what's interesting, if you're trying to get the most out of it and something pairs on the river. As being said, 1/4 pot bet should be ok to provoke shove if someone made boat... though by that moment he probably has a good fold equity, so...
 
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GWU73

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I ran the odds through excel and found that ANY flopped flush is a long term winner, even with a paired board. I strongly suggest doing the math yourself. Excel has a statistics pack that makes it very easy if you know how to compute combinations, and ev calculations. All that said; if villain is never getting in without the full house, I could find a fold. Losing with a flopped flush is just a hazard you have to accept. Chasing on a paired board is a losing play.
 
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