How long should it take to get to a reasonable grinding stage?

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cosyglo

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Hi,
I've been playing online kind of on and off for 2-3 years, usually playing for a month or two and then getting sick of it.

This time I'd actually get to a stage where I can reasonable grind the lower levels i.e. $1-$5 sngs, $5 cash games etc. Ive been playing a lot in the last few weeks, about 12000 hands in 3 weeks. Im breaking even on the 50c - $1 sngs, but not actually making anything from them.
Im losing too much mainly due to just making bad decision sometimes, and often just calling raises post flop with over cards or to draw and then having to fold the turn. Things like that catch me out.

Any estimation of how soon I should be getting into decent profit? I know it depends on the person, but as a rough guide?

Cheers!
 
BluffMeAllIn

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Everything essentially would deal with sample size, when it comes to cash games you determine sample by the # of hands played (50k is an ok sample to determine if you are a winning player), more is better......but obv if you are loosing accross 50k hands then you have some leaks you need to plus and until you do then you will never profit.

Similarly in sng's (are these mtt-sng's or stt's?) however sample is obviously measured by # of games played, for stt's 1k games is an ok sample, more is better........for mtt-sng's or mtt's because they are higher variance than stt's you probably want a min 2.5k sample to determine if you are winning overall, and 10k maybe even moreso.

In essence the higher the variance in a game the larger sample you want to determine if you are in fact a winning player or if maybe you just got lucky to bink a good paying mtt for example.

There is no rough guide however, if you are breaking even and losing over the sample you played its quite possible you have some improving to do just to be a small winner and if its variance then it will work itself out overtime.

To answer the question there is no rough guide to be given to estimate when you might get a decent profit because if you don't improve you may never see profit, and you can't really guess how much or quickly you may improve to start seeing a consistant profit......only you can put the time and effort into the game to improve and eventually see yourself profiting.

Perhaps you should drop to 2nl cash games if you are losing at 5nl, and stick with 50c stt's until you start seeing a profit. This will at least slow down your losses as you work on your game.......what is your br and brm plans/goals at this point, do you play rush cash or regular tables if you play rush i suggest dropping to regular tables, if you play six max maybe try full ring tables and tighten up.

If you have stats or graphs etc to post it might help provide further response.
 
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WiZZiM

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it depends how much you work on your game. spending some money on coaching or a training site will sure save you some time. posting as many hands here as you can will also help a lot.

mixing games is generally not a good idea. like, if you post the same hand, with the same stack sizes, and one is a tournament, and one is a cash game, they will play completely differently. find the one you like, stick with it and learn it. if it's "boring" to only play one stake/limit/tournament, then you're going to find it hard to play poker long term profitably.
 
strodawg

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I am going through the same thing man! I mostly been making bad decisions in the big blinds in MTT's. Definitely bad timing as well. I play on bovada and there I seen many super small stacks rake the impossible. I need to start getting more tight with some how getting loose in the 600 to 2000 dollar blinds I think.
 
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cosyglo

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As of now I'm sticking with the 50c Standard STT's on FT. I have a bankroll of just over $25 so that should be enough to manage variance etc. Im thinking over the next 100 tournaments or so if I can make $5 I'd be relatively happy, considering the rake is 7c on the 43c buy in. Ill probably try to move up to the $1 dollar games then!

Im finding my main problem is c/bet too much, which I've identified and hopefully stopped or slowed. But also making bad calls e.g. calling 1/3 - 1/2 pot bets on the turn and river with like 2nd pair or something just because I've convinced myself I'm ahead. Conversely I also find that when I fold too much, Like top pair poor kicker (convincing myself I'm behind) I end up losing bits and pieces and find myself with a short stack? Finding the balance is the problem really and I'm hoping it comes with time, ASAP!
 
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Ubercroz

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1 more sessionthan you have played. always.
 
Arjonius

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The question isn't one that can be answered with any decent degree of confidence because of the factors that can affect your results. Variance is an obvious one, but automatically assuming it's the reason you're not winning or that you need huge volume to have confidence you're a winning player are both simplified.

For instance, how much volume you have affects the level of confidence. So as an artificial example, let's say that with 100k hands and a win rate of x/100, you can be 95% confident that you're a winning player, although not necessarily at x/100. With fewer hands, your confidence level is just lower than 95%.

Also, negative variance doesn't necessarily mean losing; e.g. a 10bb/100 winning player who runs at just +2.5bb/100 for a while.

Another factor that can impact how long it takes to turn a profit is how important it is to you. This impacts how much effort a player will actually put into getting better and becoming profitable.
 
n3rv

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Any estimation of how soon I should be getting into decent profit? I know it depends on the person, but as a rough guide?

Roughly speaking it has taken me about a year and about 100,000 hands. I grinded up from $0 so I couldn't lose my money learning the game. I lost a few $100+ bankrolls that I grinded up along the way which taught me a lot (patience, variance, determination, dedication, tilt control, etc.). My last 10,000 hands have been consistently profitable at microstakes and I am more confident in my overall view of the game.

My mentality has switched quite a bit in order for this to happen - I have more respect for making the right decision now as opposed to gambling for a rush. I enjoy the game differently now, and only play when I am in the right mood. I am still learning though. I am aware that anything is possible. I just have to try and make the next best decision.

I hope this helps.
 
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Siminitt

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A reasonable sample to judge your playing ability is 100k hands mind.
If you are wanting to be serious about poker then you should be playing around 40k min a month.
 
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cosyglo

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Thanks guys! Ill see in 100k how I'm doing!
 
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