How did Galfond calculate this equity?

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bbrrookie

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After betting flop and getting raised, I had to figure out how often I thought he’d fold to a shove. With my pair + backdoor flush/straight draws, I had over 20% equity against any 1 pair hand, and a teeny bit of equity against 2pr or sets. Obviously, with 20-25% equity at best when called, I need to be pretty confident he’ll fold if I was gonna shove.

i understand how to calculate equities when going for any draw, but how do you calculate it when you add in a pair you catch on the board and looking for backdoors?

i got it from this website:
http://www.philgalfond.com/ask-phil-answers-part-1/
 
beanstalk

beanstalk

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Calculating Equity

Good question. The math is not that hard, but I bet he used an equity calculator. Poker Stove is the most popular. You just click the hand you have, enter the board, and your opponent's hand range.

http://www.pokerstove.com/blog/

Free download by the way. Good luck.
 
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bbrrookie

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He calculated all this at the table
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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yupp, he's a beast.

tbh I think(?) its standard to know your overall equity in spots.. I need to work on my maths though and I know I just put it off.
 
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cAPSLOCK

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This is pretty basic stuff. He sees a lot of Laaks range as overpairs or 67 89 A6 A9 type hands. His little pair has a bit of equity as he has 5 outs to improve. Combine this with two backdoor draws (these are 24:1 each) and discount your outs hooking up an opponents straights, boats, or counterfeited hands and at best you are a 3:1 or 4:1 dog. So he had to ask himself what part of laaks range folds to a shove and how likely is that to happen... that's the harder part.
 
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WiZZiM

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Dont think he calculated at the table, it's just that he's been in spots like this a bagillion times and done the math away from the table, so he knows he's roughly 20% here or whatever. Basically 100BB poker is a solved game (hahaha, just wanted to say that, sick of hearing SNG's are solved)...
 
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