How to Figure out an Opponent's Range??

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louaylouay

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I'm newer to poker. I have played super casually on pokerstars for play chips in the past, but recently developed an obsession with poker and learning how the game works. I became super intrigued by trying to figure out what the best decisions were in any poker situation. I first read a few books, including most of Doyle Brunson's Super System and Decide to Play Good Poker by Annie Duke. After watching hours of professional play on YouTube, I started to get ok (not good by any means) at determining what may be the correct move in a given situation. I just kind of related the decision I would have made with the little knowledge I have to the decisions that the poker pros make. Of course, it is kind of easy to do when you can see everyone's cards for the broadcasted games.

After about a month or so of just watching, reading, and learning, I decided to use $100 as a bankroll and start playing. After about 10-12 hours of playing I realized that what I know does not seem to be working. I believe I am playing poker the way that it theoretically should be played. I haven't had many situations where I am like "shoot, that was the worst possible decision in this situation and I did it anyway." but obviously I am not playing it anywhere near perfectly optimal as this is still brand new to me.


I have made a lot of mistakes in poker but I kind of boiled the mistakes down to one thing, I HAVE NO IDEA HOW TO ACTUALLY PUT AN OPPONENT ON A RANGE. I am by no means PHENOMENAL at any of it, but I have a small grasp on some of the basics and fundamentals. I can handle pot odds and I notice people trying to squeeze, steal blinds, leading weak on a missed or weak flop, I know how to theoretically protect my hand from draws, and all of the other "measurable" stuff. but I actually have no idea what these people possibly have in their hands.


I realized that a lot of mistakes I made come from me believing an opponent's hand is generally much different than what it actually is. I just don't get it.


I specifically need help with a few things:


1. Do people's play vary by THAT MUCH that it is seemingly random? I know I'm playing microstakes but I would think that a lot of people who are using real money to play would at least have use something close to a little bit of logic. I feel like everything is 100% random sometimes.


2. I don't know if my issue is coming from me misreading stuff or people just playing weird, is there any way to differentiate?


3. At a multiple-person table, how do you keep track of tendencies? I know that player attributes are a big part of how you read a hand or put an opponent on a range, but on larger tables, everything just kinda blends together and I can't seem to keep track of everyone. I have been just kinda of picking one or two people and trying my hardest to pay attention to them and take advantage when I can play a hand against them. Obviously I don't always get to choose my opponents at a table, so that hasn't worked really well.


4. I know there's about a million metric tons of stuff I have to learn, but I would imagine that the time I put in learning some of the intracacies and important stuff about poker would have at least given me some sort of edge against the lowest stake players, but it just does not seem to be the case.


Any assistance at all, even to something that I may not have specifically addressed in this thread, would be greatly appreciated.
 
Spaceman

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Playing with play money vs playing for real money is a whole different story. And you will see that even the change from low stakes to higher seems like entirely different poker from what you were playing. Just my two cents.

Now to answer your question, if it was that easy to know what cards your opponent have, then everyone would win at poker.


If you dont play with donkeys that bets anything and go all in with any two cards, then I would say bets are a good indicator of at least what a hand range you are against. Then its position on the table. And of course observing betting patterns and showdowns of your opponent. Sometimes I even call on the river although I know Im drawing dead just to see what cards my opponent have. That is valuable information.

Now of course, if you playing micro stakes and donkeys be prepared for some completely nonsense plays. Could you be more specific? Give us an example. Cause when I started I find a lot of plays as donkeys until I realised it was pretty standard play.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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1. It's not random.

2. I'm not sure what "weird stuff" means, but the issue is you. A good player gets to know their specific opponents, and the tendencies of the player pool in general (a generic profile for when you don't know your specific opponent yet). Good players learn how to best take advantage of the types of mistakes their opponents make.


3. It sound like you have the right general idea. Are you taking notes? If you are serious about getting good at poker, get a HUD like PokerTracker, Hold'em Manager, or DriveHud.


4. Learning poker from SuperSystem is like learning physics from Newton's Principia. It contains truths, but is very much from a different era. I haven't read the Annie Duke book, so cannot comment on that. Are you watching hand breakdowns on YouTube (like Andrew Neeme), or just Poker After Dark type stuff? Also, spend some time in the hand analysis sections of this site. How would you play those hands, and why? Google terms mentioned in those sections that you may not be familiar with.


I agree with Spaceman (of the band Spirtualized? Love your work) that plays that seem crazy to newcomers are sometimes correct. But I recommend against "paying to see", it's almost never worth it.
 
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louaylouay

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Playing with play money vs playing for real money is a whole different story. And you will see that even the change from low stakes to higher seems like entirely different poker from what you were playing. Just my two cents.

Now to answer your question, if it was that easy to know what cards your opponent have, then everyone would win at poker.


If you dont play with donkeys that bets anything and go all in with any two cards, then I would say bets are a good indicator of at least what a hand range you are against. Then its position on the table. And of course observing betting patterns and showdowns of your opponent. Sometimes I even call on the river although I know Im drawing dead just to see what cards my opponent have. That is valuable information.

Now of course, if you playing micro stakes and donkeys be prepared for some completely nonsense plays. Could you be more specific? Give us an example. Cause when I started I find a lot of plays as donkeys until I realised it was pretty standard play.

Sure! Actually I'm typing this at the perfect time because I just got knocked out of a freeroll, with abt 220/700 remaining from a situation that I think is a good example. I'll take it play by play as I watch the hand and talk you through my thoughts(in bold).


I woke up with AKs hearts from the button. 2 Limpers ahead, I raised 4xBB.
I am trying narrow the field ahead of me to try and play this pot heads up if possible. With no raises in front of me I would assume that I'm ahead the limpers at this point and want to get rid of the SB and BB.


Flop came Ad Js 6s, checked to me, I raise 1/2 pot, he calls.
Top pair top kicker, raise 1/2 pot to stave off any flush draws or at least make it a bad call. Very possible for something like Qspade10spade to have called me preflop at this table (based on what I think I know). The call made me think weak ace, QJ, KJ, something like that where he can improve on the next streets but he has a made hand he's willing to at least defend against a bluff attempt if I was bluffing.

Turn was 4h. checked to me again. Raised 3/4 pot. he calls
At this point I was pretty sure I was ahead. The only thing I was kinda worried about was maybe AJ but I feel like he would have check raised me on the flop if he flopped top 2. I raised, honestly expecting a fold, or at least getting the chips in against a worse hand that he couldn't let go of like a JK or something. I was super surprised that he called tbh, thats where I kinda figured he was just going to try and bluff the river.

River is Kd. I check, he shoves, I call.
I wholeheartedly expected him to try and buy it with what I was almost 100% sure was a midpair good kicker on a semibluff. It literally was exactly the play I expected from him and I was ecstatic to snapcall the river At this point I have top 2 pair so even if he had AJ, which I did not think he did because he limped pre, I have him buried here.
Final Board: Ad Js 6s 4h Kd
My hand: AhKh

Showdown comes, I have 2pair AK obviously, he shows Q10o for the straight. I just kinda sat there with my mouth open for a minute because I felt like I played that exactly as I should have. Even if he called me pre with Q10, which in a freeroll is very possible, I discredited any draw because only a giant psychopath would put that much money in the pot with that board without a made hand (I thought, apparently I was wrong).


Situations like this seem to be super common. I don't know if I'm misreading stuff or even just overthinking it at this point but when he shoved the river it SCREAMED bluff at me based on what I think I know about poker. I think my reads and decisions were solid but this dude just abt doubled up and I busted from it.


I know there is variance but I am STILL, after abt 15hrs of hands at this point, unable to read a single hand correctly. I just don't know exactly what I'm doing wrong.
 
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louaylouay

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1. It's not random.

2. I'm not sure what "weird stuff" means, but the issue is you. A good player gets to know their specific opponents, and the tendencies of the player pool in general (a generic profile for when you don't know your specific opponent yet). Good players learn how to best take advantage of the types of mistakes their opponents make.


3. It sound like you have the right general idea. Are you taking notes? If you are serious about getting good at poker, get a HUD like PokerTracker, Hold'em Manager, or DriveHud.


4. Learning poker from SuperSystem is like learning physics from Newton's Principia. It contains truths, but is very much from a different era. I haven't read the Annie Duke book, so cannot comment on that. Are you watching hand breakdowns on YouTube (like Andrew Neeme), or just Poker After Dark type stuff? Also, spend some time in the hand analysis sections of this site. How would you play those hands, and why? Google terms mentioned in those sections that you may not be familiar with.


I agree with Spaceman (of the band Spirtualized? Love your work) that plays that seem crazy to newcomers are sometimes correct. But I recommend against "paying to see", it's almost never worth it.

1. Haha that's the answer I was hoping for, that means that there is room for improvement.


2. I agree, I am having a hard time being able to "label" players, if that is a good way to explain it. Should I be using a kind of "catch all" profile per person or should I be taking extensive note of the exact moves of each player? The latter is what I am seeing to be very very difficult. I just don't know if the former is going to be good enough to do what I am looking to do.


3/ I just downloaded pokertracker before the freeroll I just played. I read how a HUD can make keeping track of a table much easier, hopefully it helps!


4. Yeah, I see what you are saying. Annie Duke's book is really interesting it explains game theory and math and shows how the best decisions are made when both theory and math align. I have seen the hand breakdowns, I just don't know how reliable of a source a lot of them are. I love any little short videos that Negreanu or another well known pro does, but I haven't seen anything in depth from anyone I am familiar with; but any known, reliable channels will be of great use to me.


Thank you for your reply!
 
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mjarom21

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Before you worry about your opponents ranges, make sure you have your ranges set and you are worrying about how you play fundamentally. When you figure out how you play your ranges, you will know how others play theirs. People might be different, but they aren't that much different. Ask yourself what you would have in his spot and than go from there. As you progress you will notice people try to deceive you with their range, but their bet patterns don't match their story most of the time, that's when you catch the fish and reel them in.

A bit over-generalized, but the underling lessons are there.
 
playinggameswithu

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Watch every opponent. Follow rationality and betting patterns. Solved.
 
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I woke up with AKs hearts from the button. 2 Limpers ahead, I raised 4xBB.
I am trying narrow the field ahead of me to try and play this pot heads up if possible. With no raises in front of me I would assume that I'm ahead the limpers at this point and want to get rid of the SB and BB.

Sounds fine. Depending on stack sizes, an all-in might have been better. freerolls are mostly populated by players who don't know much about poker. Playing is more fun than folding, and "hey, you never know" what will turn into a good hand. So you should be placing your opponents on a wide range.

Flop came As Js 6s, checked to me, I raise 1/2 pot, he calls.
Top pair top kicker, raise 1/2 pot to stave off any flush draws or at least make it a bad call. Very possible for something like Qspade10spade to have called me preflop at this table (based on what I think I know). The call made me think weak ace, QJ, KJ, something like that where he can improve on the next streets but he has a made hand he's willing to at least defend against a bluff attempt if I was bluffing.


So the pot is 13.5BB before the flop and you bet 6.75BB. You are offering him pot odds of 6.75/(13.5+6.75+6.75) = 25%. He has four outs, so his chances of making his straight by the river by the rule of 2 and 4 is 4*4 = 16%.
Of course he may need to fold to a big turn bet, but maybe the implied odds are high (you would need to tell us the stack sizes for us to know).
He might be correct to make this call, depending on his implied odds and bluffing skills. You are incorrect to think that betting half pot would make a bad call for anyone on a flush draw. If he had a flush draw he would have 9 outs. Bet bigger here.
I don't know why you are discounting the idea that he has a draw here, it's a wet board. Freeroll players will chase draws. Most don't know the odds, it's more fun than folding, and all that is lost if they lose is time and opportunity.



Turn was 4h. checked to me again. Raised 3/4 pot. he calls
At this point I was pretty sure I was ahead. The only thing I was kinda worried about was maybe AJ but I feel like he would have check raised me on the flop if he flopped top 2. I raised, honestly expecting a fold, or at least getting the chips in against a worse hand that he couldn't let go of like a JK or something. I was super surprised that he called tbh, thats where I kinda figured he was just going to try and bluff the river.


Bet is fine. Now he is definitely making a bad call mathematically, unless he thinks a river bluff is likely to succeed. Is it? He doesn't know you have top/top. He could also have a set of 6's here. But you are right to think that you are ahead of his range.


River is Kd. I check, he shoves, I call.
I wholeheartedly expected him to try and buy it with what I was almost 100% sure was a midpair good kicker on a semibluff. It literally was exactly the play I expected from him and I was ecstatic to snapcall the river At this point I have top 2 pair so even if he had AJ, which I did not think he did because he limped pre, I have him buried here.
Final Board: Ad Js 6s 4h Kd
My hand: AhKh

Showdown comes, I have 2pair AK obviously, he shows Q10o for the straight. I just kinda sat there with my mouth open for a minute because I felt like I played that exactly as I should have. Even if he called me pre with Q10, which in a freeroll is very possible, I discredited any draw because only a giant psychopath would put that much money in the pot with that board without a made hand (I thought, apparently I was wrong).


I'm not sure why you were so sure he would bluff? Ax is definitely in his range here, and he's likely to just check that back. You have a good hand, and players at this level call too much too often. I'd bet.
Depending on how big the all in is, and any specific knowledge I have about my opponent, I wouldn't fold top two pair here against a random freeroller.
But don't be shocked. New players / recreational players chase draws often. He's probably not a psychopath, just someone who knows one ounce less about the game than you do. You want them to make calls that are mathematically incorrect. But they always have a puncher's chance.
 
shinedown.45

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Sure! Actually I'm typing this at the perfect time because I just got knocked out of a freeroll, with abt 220/700 remaining from a situation that I think is a good example. I'll take it play by play as I watch the hand and talk you through my thoughts(in bold).


I woke up with AKs hearts from the button. 2 Limpers ahead, I raised 4xBB.
I am trying narrow the field ahead of me to try and play this pot heads up if possible. With no raises in front of me I would assume that I'm ahead the limpers at this point and want to get rid of the SB and BB.


Flop came Ad Js 6s, checked to me, I raise 1/2 pot, he calls.
Top pair top kicker, raise 1/2 pot to stave off any flush draws or at least make it a bad call. Very possible for something like Qspade10spade to have called me preflop at this table (based on what I think I know). The call made me think weak ace, QJ, KJ, something like that where he can improve on the next streets but he has a made hand he's willing to at least defend against a bluff attempt if I was bluffing.

Turn was 4h. checked to me again. Raised 3/4 pot. he calls
At this point I was pretty sure I was ahead. The only thing I was kinda worried about was maybe AJ but I feel like he would have check raised me on the flop if he flopped top 2. I raised, honestly expecting a fold, or at least getting the chips in against a worse hand that he couldn't let go of like a JK or something. I was super surprised that he called tbh, thats where I kinda figured he was just going to try and bluff the river.

River is Kd. I check, he shoves, I call.
I wholeheartedly expected him to try and buy it with what I was almost 100% sure was a midpair good kicker on a semibluff. It literally was exactly the play I expected from him and I was ecstatic to snapcall the river At this point I have top 2 pair so even if he had AJ, which I did not think he did because he limped pre, I have him buried here.
Final Board: Ad Js 6s 4h Kd
My hand: AhKh

Showdown comes, I have 2pair AK obviously, he shows Q10o for the straight. I just kinda sat there with my mouth open for a minute because I felt like I played that exactly as I should have. Even if he called me pre with Q10, which in a freeroll is very possible, I discredited any draw because only a giant psychopath would put that much money in the pot with that board without a made hand (I thought, apparently I was wrong).


Situations like this seem to be super common. I don't know if I'm misreading stuff or even just overthinking it at this point but when he shoved the river it SCREAMED bluff at me based on what I think I know about poker. I think my reads and decisions were solid but this dude just abt doubled up and I busted from it.


I know there is variance but I am STILL, after abt 15hrs of hands at this point, unable to read a single hand correctly. I just don't know exactly what I'm doing wrong.
Situations like this are not uncommon, especially in freeroll and micro games.

While reading your play by play, I was thinking more along the lines of villain flopped a set and was letting you do all the betting, which is also common in freerolls/micros.


As you play the micros more, you will find alot of strange calls and uncommon bet sizing.
Most players in the micros are generally inexperienced in poker, no notion of position, pot odds, board texture, betting for value etc. They just see the cards in front of them, having a HUD will help you to isolate these types of players more easily.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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2. I agree, I am having a hard time being able to "label" players, if that is a good way to explain it. Should I be using a kind of "catch all" profile per person or should I be taking extensive note of the exact moves of each player? The latter is what I am seeing to be very very difficult. I just don't know if the former is going to be good enough to do what I am looking to do.

4. Yeah, I see what you are saying. Annie Duke's book is really interesting it explains game theory and math and shows how the best decisions are made when both theory and math align. I have seen the hand breakdowns, I just don't know how reliable of a source a lot of them are. I love any little short videos that Negreanu or another well known pro does, but I haven't seen anything in depth from anyone I am familiar with; but any known, reliable channels will be of great use to me.


Thank you for your reply!

2. Do both, but the HUD will help a lot with specific player tendencies.


4. I'm more of a reader, so I'll leave hand breakdown video recommendations to someone else.
 
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